AZ Policy Wonk

It’s likely a lot of people will want to weigh in on the budget proposal the House voted through last night. So, I’ll post ‘em as I get ‘em. Already received a few statements in my e-mail inbox this morning. And lawmakers had a few things to say last night after the vote.

Let’s start with Attorney General Terry Goddard, who blasted not only the Legislature, but the governor as well. Go figure. Here’s his statement:

“The Legislature and governor have, once again, failed in their most basic constitutional duty – passing a balanced budget. This gridlock just makes Arizona’s economic situation worse and reveals a total lack of leadership at the Capitol.”

Here’s something from the governor:

“I’m very grateful for what happened over in the House and I think that we will be successful,” Gov. Jan Brewer said after meeting with Sen. Pamela Gorman. The governor was referring to the House’s passage of the budget deal.  

Now Gorman:

“I can’t even begin to tell you what’s wrong with this (proposal),” she said.

From the House:

“Folks, sometimes being down here is pure hell. And that’s what it is right now: pure hell,” said Rep. Ray Barnes, a Phoenix Republican who supported the budget package.

“It’s either take this deal, settle on a worse deal or run out of money and leave schools and everyone else in the lurch, and I just can’t do that,” said Rep. Debbie Lesko, a Glendale Republican.

Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens put this in a statement:

“Arizona is a full month into the new fiscal year, but the governor and Republicans are still stuck back on June 30. There is no budget. There is no legitimate inclusion of duly elected Democrats. Nothing has been accomplished. Their failed leadership has repeated itself day after day, while our state continues to suffer. Arizona needs a strong governor, but what we have instead is a Republican-led deadlock.”

More to come, and don’t forget comments are encouraged.

It now appears as though the Senate is going to push one more time for a budget. And at least one key member who was planning a vacation has indicated she will stick around for one more day.

Sen. Pamela Gorman said last night she would postpone her trip and stay at the Capitol in case budget measures are voted on today. And we hear Sen. Jonathan Paton is planning to be here today; he had military obligations yesterday and wasn’t at the Capitol.

But it’s been difficult for both chambers to corral members these past few days, and it’s not clear whether House members who were planning to be out of town will be here instead.

It’s going to be an interesting ride today. Almost always is.

The Senate has adjourned, which can’t be a good sign for those who were fond of the most recent budget proposal. It sounds like there will be lawmakers missing on Thursday and Friday – lawmakers who were expected to vote yes on the budget legislation – so another delay is likely.

It might turn out that this budget incarnation is already dead. Once again, lawmakers thought they had a deal but couldn’t muster the support, at least in the Senate, to warrant bringing it to the floor for a vote.

Lawmakers were working under the assumption that they had a window of opportunity to pass something this week because, as rumor has it, a handful of lawmakers will go missing due to other obligations starting tomorrow. Now that the window is closing, Republicans might choose to go a different yet familiar route toward a budget deal: Democrats.

The minority party was all geared up earlier in the week because, after watching from the sidelines all session, they were only about $500 million away from a budget deal with the GOP. But those talks ended abruptly when Republicans patched things up with Brewer and came up with the most recent plan.

It all happened so fast, really, after a painfully slow start. Republicans had envisioned working with Brewer on the budget, and proceeded with that in mind for about six months. Then, in the final night of the regular session, Brewer and Republican leaders teased Democrats with stop-and-go talks that amounted to nothing.

The rest goes like this: Brewer vetoes. Democrats in, Brewer out. Three weeks of special session. Brewer in, Democrats out. Republicans fail to muster votes again.

Anyway, I might be getting way ahead of myself. It might turn out that they come back next week and vote on a proposal similar to the one on the table now. Or maybe they’ll do it later this week after all.

But Democrats, in the meantime, might want to be on stand-by.

It sounds as though we might finally see some action on the budget. But, then again, that might just be what they want us to think.

If I sound paranoid, it’s only because I’m delirious after seven months of budget yammering.

Anyway, my point is this: With GOP lawmakers working toward dueling deals with Democrats and Governor Jan Brewer, both sides might feel a bit more pressure to capitulate. If Republican lawmakers can’t get what they want from the Democratic minority, then they can fall back and work out something with the governor – or vice versa.

It seems like simple strategy. Work one against the other. If not for the political consequences of going to Democrats earlier on, this tactic might have played out months earlier. How would it have looked, after all, if Republicans, with a solid majority in the Legislature and a Republican on the Ninth Floor, had gone willingly to Democrats in, say, April?

Plus, Republicans may actually have thought they could string something together among themselves in the final days of the regular session, a magical time that sometimes turns idealists into pragmatists. Perhaps their rank-and-file would relent and agree to a sales tax referral, or maybe Brewer would buckle and let the whole thing slide.

But neither of those things happened, and here we are 27 days into the fiscal year without a budget. We’re one of only a few states still stuck in this purgatory.

Some lawmakers have said a deal is near and an agreement might be struck within a week or so. But which deal? The one with Democrats, or the one with Brewer? Actually, it may serve GOP leaders well to give the impression that they’re about to close the deal on both ends.

In any case, it wouldn’t be the first time that everyone was fooled into thinking a budget agreement was in hand. I, for one, started holding my breath on June 30.

Seventy lawmakers registered votes on all four of the budget bills that were passed by the Legislature July 6. One senator, Russell Pearce of Mesa, voted on a couple of the bills but skipped out on the two education-related measures. 

The other 19 lawmakers were absent for one reason or another.

Some lawmakers were on vacation, after spending 170 days in regular session. A few stayed away from the Capitol for an extended Fourth of July holiday. Others were told they wouldn’t miss much if they skipped the first day of the special session.

Here is a list of lawmakers who weren’t at the Capitol to register their votes on July 6:

Senate:

Ron Gould, a Republican from Lake Havasu City

Pamela Gorman, a Republican from Anthem

Richard Miranda, a Democrat from Tolleson

Meg Burton-Cahill, a Democrat from Tempe

Ken Cheavront, a Democrat from Phoenix

Jim Waring, a Republican from Phoenix

House:

Doug Quelland, a Republican from Phoenix

Daniel Patterson, a Democrat from Tucson

Vic Williams, a Republican from Tucson

Ed Ableser, a Democrat from Tempe

Steve Montenegro, a Republican from Litchfield Park

Chris Deschene, a Democrat from Window Rock

Eric Meyer, a Democrat from Paradise Valley

Debbie Lesko, a Republican from Glendale

Phil Lopes, a Democrat from Tucson

Rich Crandall, a Republican from Mesa

Russ Jones, a Republican from Yuma

Olivia Cajero-Bedford, a Democrat from Tucson

Andy Biggs, a Republican from Gilbert

It was, without question, a strange set of circumstances that led to the unanimous approval of four budget bills on July 6. Four months of infighting among Republicans. A legal challenge of the original GOP-authored state budget. Sweeping vetoes by a Republican governor. A last-minute effort to involve Democrats. And Bob Burns letting lose a tirade of criticism for whom many people expected to be the Republicans’ next best hope for retaining the Ninth Floor.

Yet, somehow, 70 or more lawmakers were able to agree on the four budget bills. And nobody in the House or the Senate opposed them.

So, it’s notable anytime the Arizona Legislature votes unanimously for anything of substance; lawmakers do find themselves in accord, perhaps a dozen or more times each year, but usually on minor, technical changes. Yet the newfound camaraderie between Republican and Democratic lawmakers exhibited on the first day of the special session seems to send a strong signal to the Gov. Jan Brewer that the Legislature intends to assert control over the rest of the budget process – whether Brewer likes the final package or not.

After all, it would be very difficult, if not completely impractical, for the governor to reject a budget that has solid bipartisan support, even if it doesn’t include her proposal for a sales tax increase. Forty representatives and 20 senators can override her veto.

That doesn’t mean Brewer won’t get what she wants; legislative leadership plans to meet tomorrow to discuss other budget issues that have yet to be resolved, and lawmakers still need to come up with the revenue to plug a deficit of at least $2 billion. A tax increase may be used to raise revenue, more cuts may be enacted, the state may sell additional assets or even borrow into the future.

That will be decided sometime after lawmakers restart the special session on July 13, which, by the way, is Brewer’s deadline to sign or reject the 180 or so non-budget bills that were passed in the final weeks of the regular session. The weeklong delay, intentionally or not, removes any possibility that Brewer could hold hostage any non-budget bills while trying to negotiate a positive resolution to her sales tax proposal.

Meanwhile, Brewer has given all appearances that she’s thrilled by the Legislature’s swift action. She told Capitol Times reporter Jeremy Duda that the additional $400 million for education included in H2001 shows that lawmakers have responded to her calls to protect public schools’ funding and that they intend to come up with some way to raise the revenue necessary for a balanced budget.

That seems logical to a point; Brewer has indeed been pushing for shallower cuts to education, and her vetoes made possible the second round of budget bills. But then she went on to say it wouldn’t surprise her if lawmakers passed a sales tax increase on their own. In other words, no referendum.

Hmmm. Not sure what to make of that, considering it was not possible to rally a simple majority to approve a ballot measure that would allow voters to decide for themselves whether to raise sales taxes. So, rounding up a legislative supermajority to support a measure that would raise taxes without asking voters seems like wishful thinking. Politically – and for some, ideologically – that scenario is completely unpalatable.

Even after Brewer convinced Senate President Bob Burns to prop up her sales tax referral in the final days of the regular session, it’s highly unlikely he would vote for legislation that increases taxes without allowing voters to weigh in. Add to that list Sens. Russell Pearce, Jack Harper, Ron Gould, Thayer Verschoor, Jim Waring, Steve Pierce, Chuck Gray, Pamela Gorman, Sylvia Allen and others – and that’s just in the Senate.

Many Republicans in the House also have warned Brewer to count them out. And Democrats in both chambers have withheld support for raising the state sales tax.

So, to me, the unanimous vote on the four budget bills carries a much different message than Brewer seems to have received. One way of looking at it is that lawmakers are saying she can veto all she wants, but to no avail. And that wouldn’t bode well for her tax plan.

With 2010 around the corner, Democrats wouldn’t be too upset if Brewer emerges from this chaos looking as though she lacks the political muscle to push her agenda. And, judging by Burns’ recent comments about Brewer’s leadership abilities, it might not disappoint him too much either.

In this case, unanimity among lawmakers, many of whom weren’t involved in serious budget talks until last week, should be somewhat unsettling to Brewer, even if she did get part of what she had requested.