AZ Policy Wonk

A new poll was released today (Aug. 31), and the results don’t bode well for Gov. Jan Brewer’s chances for election to a full term. It also looks bad for the Arizona Legislature.

Apparently, voters are fed up with Brewer and state lawmakers - Brewer especially. Only 18 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Brewer, while 46 percent said they would vote for “someone else.” Thirty-six percent said they were undecided.

It appears Brewer will have to change a lot of people’s minds between now and next fall if she wants to retain the Ninth Floor. Even among Republicans, Brewer didn’t fare well; only 23 percent of GOP voters said they would vote for her, indicating she will have considerable difficulty in a primary election.

Granted, Brewer has only said she is leaning toward running for a full term. But that’s as definitive as she’s been so far. Until last week, her plans for next year were even murkier.

Her proposed sales tax increase did much better than she did, however, with 49 percent saying they approve of the plan. Forty-three percent said they disapprove, which leaves 8 percent on the fence. Democrats were largely in favor of the sales tax increase.

Perhaps more importantly, 57 percent of the respondents said the state is on the wrong track. Only 18 percent thought the state is headed in the right direction.

The Legislature also received poor marks. Sixty-one percent said lawmakers’ performance was not to their liking. Twenty percent said the Legislature was doing a good job.

The top concerns among those polled were public education funding, followed by illegal immigration and the state budget. University funding, the environment and transportation were among the least of their concerns.

The poll was commissioned by Wil Cardon of the real estate firm The Cardon Group, and was publicized by Rose and Allyn Public Relations. The Phoenix-based Summit Group surveyed 602 “high-efficacy Arizona voters” on Aug. 20-25. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Forty percent of the respondents were Republicans, 33 percent were Democrats and the rest were independent or unaffiliated.

It’s notable that the media release that accompanied the poll results noted that Mr. Cardon has been named as a potential candidate for governor, treasurer and Arizona Republican Party Chairman. Sounds like someone is trying to instigate a revolt.

To view the results of the survey, go to

http://azcapitoltimes.com/wp-files/pdfs/statewide-issues-poll.pdf

It’s extremely unlikely that Gov. Jan Brewer will sign all of the budget bills that the Legislature sent to her Aug. 20. She has nothing to gain and everything to lose by allowing this budget to stand.

After pushing for a sales tax increase for months and vetoing a budget that didn’t include a ballot referral for the increase, Brewer has already run cross-wise with many Republicans who she would be counting on if she decides to seek a full term in 2010. Backing down now would only make her look wishy-washy.

In fact, if she signs the whole package, people would wonder why she put the state through so much trauma by vetoing a budget, which is very similar to the one on her desk now, back on July 1.

What do I mean by trauma? Well, there are plenty of examples. For instance, lawmakers have been tied up in knots for almost two months in a special session to address her concerns over the first set of bills, the state is teetering on the brink of insolvency, state cash tied up in investments has been yanked to cover operating expenses, and Treasurer Dean Martin has been crowing about the very likely possibility that the state will have to borrow money from the private sector (including interest upon repayment) to make up for the lack of a spending plan.

Not only that, but she may have irreparably damaged her image and her chances of being elected next year by continuing to fight with the very Republicans who heralded her ascension to the Ninth Floor.

If she was going to back off her sales tax increase, now would not be the ideal time. She would be seen as having a lack of resolve - voters aren’t real keen on state officials who get beat into submission by their rivals. And fiscal conservatives aren’t about to forgive her for months of pushing for a sales tax increase.

Ideology aside, she has to continue to demand a tax increase. If not the sales tax referral, then something else that would allow her to save face.

She can’t do that if she signs the budget bills as they stand now. Therefore, she is likely to sign the ones that aren’t too controversial - H2014 already has been signed, and others might follow - but veto everything that lawmakers hold dear until they give her what she wants. The repeal of the equalization property tax is one of those bills that might be held hostage while she presses for a tax increase, but it’s not the only one.

She needs leverage. Period.

Let’s say Brewer really doesn’t care about her own political future, and that she is telling the truth when she says she’s trying to do what’s best for the state. Even under that scenario, she would have no incentive to back down now - after all, if she believes the state needs a sales tax increase, then allowing a budget to pass without one would, following her own logic, present even more problems for the state.

If she believes that, then she will have to keep on keeping on.

Bottom line: This mess is probably going to continue for another week or so. At least.

Incidentally, Arizona is one of three states without a fiscal 2010 budget. Connecticut and Pennsylvania are the other two. Even California, which some people see as the poster child of bad fiscal management, was able to pass something.

I’ve already postponed my vacation plans until the end of September. At this rate, perhaps I should just cancel them altogether.

It looks like Republican lawmakers are putting a lot of pressure on a few Senate Democrats in hopes that at least one of them can be lured into voting for the budget package.

Likely suspects include Sens. Albert Hale, Manny Alvarez and Richard Miranda. But even less clear is what they would get in return for their support of a budget that so far has been opposed by all Democrats in the Arizona Legislature.

This sort of quid pro quo has become necessary because Republicans have failed to convince a few from their own ranks to buy into specific parts of the package. Some won’t vote for the sales tax referral. Some won’t vote for the tax cuts.

And none of the holdouts seem willing to change their minds. Sen. Carolyn Allen, hampered by a knee injury, has been absent from the Capitol for more than a week. And, after a short phone conversation with reporter Luige del Puerto on Aug. 11, it was clear she remains unmotivated to tip the balance in the Senate.

Sens. Ron Gould and Pamela Gorman aren’t moving either. They won’t vote for the sales tax measure.

Sen. Jim Waring also stands opposed to the sales tax referral, now that it’s been split away from the income tax cuts. He was going to vote in favor of the bill before it was split, but only if he was the deciding 16th vote.

So, as it turns out, splitting several controversial provisions of a budget bill now seems like an exercise in futility. Clearly, it hasn’t produced the numbers needed to pass the package.

All I can say is, what happened to the idea of five-way budget talks with Dems, the GOP and Gov. Jan Brewer? Brewer said she was open to the idea more than a month ago. Democrats have said they wanted that since the beginning. 

Not only would that seem to make some sense given the stalemate we’re in, it also might have created at least an illusion of camaraderie in a Legislature that seems to have fractured beyond repair.

Don’t expect the budget to gain much traction this week - at least not the version passed by the House that includes a mix of income tax cuts, a 5 percent reduction in the state work force and a ballot referral for a sales tax increase.

We hear it’s a no-go in the Senate, where Pamela Gorman and Ron Gould are holding out because of the tax referral and Carolyn Allen is holding out because of the tax cut. Allen stayed away from the Capitol last week because of knee injury that might require surgery, but she told us she is opposed to the budget plan and won’t vote for the proposed $400 million income tax cut.

None of those three are likely to change their minds. Gould ain’t voting for it; he just keeps getting more and more opposed to taxes as each day passes, saying last week that he’ll never vote for a tax increase. Gorman likely won’t vote for it; she already spent hours getting cajoled by the governor, but nothing came of it. And Allen voted against some of the budget bills, even before the income tax reduction was added, so she’s likely to stand firm as well.

Sen. Jim Waring is out of town, but he said he’d come back if his vote was needed to pass the budget. So, we’re counting him as a “yes,” though technically he’s absent.

Same goes for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Gray, who is on a cruise but is expected to be ready to fly back to cast his vote if necessary.

That leaves 15 votes in the Senate, one short of the number needed to pass the 10 budget bills. That’s the same math that stalled the budget’s passage last week. It’s likely to do the same this week, unless a new round of negotiations begins.

Because no action is likely this week on the existing proposal, GOP leaders might opt to go back to the drawing board with Democrats to see if they can craft something with bipartisan approval that is strong enough to override a governor’s veto.

The only other option, besides continuing to pound on the three Senate Republicans, would be to try to peel off a Democrat. Janet Napolitano was masterful at finding a Republican vote or two when she needed them, but it remains to be seen if Brewer has the same skills or cache.