AZ Policy Wonk

Even I was surprised by the results of our online poll. I expected Dean Martin to rank highly, as well as Jan Brewer. But I had no idea Vernon Parker would top the results.

On Sept. 9 we asked readers to vote for the person they would most want to see as the Republican nominee for governor in 2010. During the past 12 days, we were overwhelmed with responses. Though the methodology was not scientific, I do believe the results are interesting, if not significant - especially considering most of our readers vote in every election and the fact that we had 824 responses.

Parker, the mayor of Paradise Valley, pretty much stomped on the other 10 people who were listed as possible gubernatorial candidates. He tallied 298 votes (36 percent), topping all other candidates by a wide margin. Next was state Treasurer Dean Martin with 230 votes (28 percent). The rest trailed far behind.

The list didn’t include most of the political neophytes who have filed committees so far, but it did include most of the people who’s names have been circulated in recent months. We started the poll days before Fife Symington told the Yellow Sheet that he was considering a run, so he wasn’t included.

But perhaps even more interesting was that Brewer, the incumbent, came in third, in a tie with Len Munsil, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2006 against Janet Napolitano. Both Brewer and Munsil garnered 70 votes (8 percent).

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, who hasn’t indicated any intention to run for governor, pulled down 50 votes (6 percent). U.S. Rep. John Shadegg, who also hasn’t said anything about running for governor, received 35 votes (4 percent). Secretary of State Ken Bennett received 27 votes; former U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters got 20 votes; former Arizona Republican Party Chairman John Munger got 10 votes; former Graham County Sheriff Richard Mack got 9 votes; and businessman Robert Graham got 5 votes. 

Our poll allows only one vote per person, although there was nothing stopping any of the candidates to solicit votes from friends, relatives and staff members. Perhaps Parker (or Jason Rose) wanted to generate some buzz and talked up our poll to those in his camp. Perhaps Brewer ignored our poll - after all, she was sort of busy.

But in any case, the poll was the first that I’ve seen that put these GOP candidates in a head-to-head matchup. And the results have at least made me give a little more weight to a Parker candidacy, which, by the way, he is expected to kick off this week.

Those of us in the Capitol Times newsroom just spent nearly an hour discussing Fife Symington’s revelation to the Yellow Sheet that he is leaning toward a run for governor in 2010, and we can’t come to a consensus about whether he’s serious.

Some of us believe he sincerely wants to run, and that he eventually will. Others, though, aren’t so sure. After all, he said a few years back that he was planning to run against Janet Napolitano in the 2006 gubernatorial election, and then backed out a few months later saying he wanted to concentrate on running his consulting business, The Symington Group.

It’s notable that he’s got more baggage than any of the other Republicans who have considered a campaign. He was convicted of bank fraud in 1997 and had to resign as governor because state law doesn’t allow felons to hold state office. Two years later, his conviction was overturned by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals and he was later pardoned by his old pal Bill Clinton.

At the same time, he might have more name recognition than most of the other potential candidates. He was governor for more than six years, starting in 1991. He has a large band of loyal supporters in GOP ranks. He should have no problem raising enough money to sustain a bid. And his family has a deep background in politics.

Yet many of his former cohorts are now in Gov. Brewer’s camp, so which way would they gravitate if both decide to run? It’s anyone’s guess at this point, but it would create a dilemma for at least a few top-level politicos.

It all makes me wonder if there’s more to this story; for instance, is Symington’s announcement a ploy to get Brewer to bow out? And, if so, is Symington really the most viable GOP candidate? I’ve been trying to figure out who benefits most from a Brewer withdrawal.

Lastly, Symington won a narrow victory over Democrat Terry Goddard in his first bid for governor in 1990. If he runs again next year and if he wins the primary, Arizonans likely will be in store for a very interesting race that certainly would conjure bits of state history.

For the full interview with Symington and more details, go to http://www.yellowsheetreport.com/home.htm/page/newsArticle.newsArticle&articleID=7260