AZ Policy Wonk

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio received a high approval rating in the most recent Cronkite/Eight poll.

Sixty-one percent of Maricopa County voters said they approve or strongly approve of his job performance. Thirty-four percent disapprove or strongly disapprove.

It’s one of those love-him-or-hate-him kinds of things, as most voters logged in with a “strongly” response. Thirty-nine percent said they strongly approve of the job he’s doing, while 22 percent strongly disapproved. Four percent said they had no opinion.

The poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET.

Also, county voters disagreed overwhelmingly with the federal government’s decision to strip the sheriff’s department of a portion of its 287(g) agreement that allowed deputies to enforce U.S. immigration law during crime-suppression sweeps. Sixty percent disagreed with the decision, while 36 percent agreed. Again, four percent said they had no opinion.

An analysis that was released along with the poll results noted, however, that “Republicans, people with lower levels of formal education, and social conservatives were most supportive of the sheriff; Democrats, voters with higher levels of formal education, and social moderates were least supportive.”

The poll also gauged voters’ approval ratings for Treasurer Dean Martin, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Attorney General Terry Goddard, Gov. Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas.

Not only that, but respondents were asked about swine flu and national health care reform. Full results are below.

The statewide sample of 652 registered voters was 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 29 percent Independent. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-nine percent of the voters interviewed were men and 51 percent are women. The sampling error for the statewide sample survey is plus or minus 3.8 percent. The sampling error for the Maricopa County sample, which included 389 registered voters, is plus or minus 5.0 percent.

Question wording:

First, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following Arizona state-level officials are doing. If you don’t feel you know enough about how they are doing to have an opinion, just tell me and I’ll go on to the next one. Let’s start with Governor Jan Brewer. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job she is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    2%     2%
 approve   37%   48%
 disapprove   30%   39%
 strongly disapprove    9%   11%
 don’t know/no opinion 22%   

How about the job Terry Goddard is doing as attorney general?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  11%   15%
 approve   44%   61%
 disapprove   13%   18%
 strongly disapprove    4%     6%
 don’t know/no opinion 28%  

What about the job Ken Bennett is doing as secretary of state?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    1%     3%
 approve   19%   61%
 disapprove     9%   30%
 strongly disapprove    2%     6%
 don’t know/no opinion 69%  

How about the job Dean Martin is doing as state treasurer?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    7%   14%
 approve   25%   50%
 disapprove    15%   31%
 strongly disapprove    3%     5%
 don’t know/no opinion 50%   

How important do you think it is for Congress to vote this year on a bill to reform our health care system? Do you think it is very important, important, not very important, or not at all important?

 very important   48%
 important   19%
 not very important  11%
 not at all important  19%
 don’t know/no opinion   3%

Would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

favor    44%
oppose    49%
don’t know/no opinion   7%

Now, turning to the swine flu, when a vaccination becomes readily available in Arizona, will you get a swine flu vaccination?

 yes    41%
 no    54%
 don’t know/no opinion   5%

Regardless of how you feel about getting a swine flu vaccination, have you had or will you have a regular flu shot this year?
yes    58%
no    41%
don’t know/no opinion   1%

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following Maricopa County officials are doing. Again, if you don’t have enough information about how they are doing to rate them, just tell me and I’ll go to the next person. Let’s start with County Attorney Andrew Thomas. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove (9%/14) of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  12%   17%
 approve   32%   47%
 disapprove   14%   22%
 strongly disapprove    9%   14%
 don’t know/no opinion 33%  

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  How about the job Sheriff Joe Arpaio is doing.  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  39%   41%
 approve   22%   23%
 disapprove   13%   14%
 strongly disapprove  22%   22%
 don’t know/no opinion   4%  

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  Under an agreement with the federal government, the Maricopa County sheriff’s department has had the authority to arrest illegal immigrants in the community and to screen the immigration status of people booked into the county jail. Recently, the federal government restricted Sheriff Arpaio to ONLY checking the immigration status of people when they are checked into jail. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to limit Arpaio’s immigration authority?

 agree    36% 
 disagree   60% 
 don’t know/no opinion   4%

Another poll shows dismal approval ratings for Gov. Jan Brewer. This time, they contrasted her performance, as judged by Arizona residents, with those of former governors Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull.

And, if the approval/disapproval ratings of former governors can be used as a benchmark, Brewer has a lot to worry about heading into 2010.

Only 22 percent of the 800 people interviewed for the latest Rocky Mountain Poll (conducted Sept. 9-18 by the Behavior Research Center) said they approve of Brewer’s performance. That’s down from 24 percent approval in May when a similar poll was conducted.

At the same time, the percentage of voters who disapprove of her performance went up by two percent. Twenty-eight percent rated her performance as “poor,” compared to 26 percent in May.

Both of the figures above fall within the margin of error for the poll, so maybe they don’t mean much. And there is still the murky designation of “fair,” which 30 percent of voters used to rate Brewer (it was 32 percent in May).

But there is something that has changed signicantly, and it could hurt Brewer in the primary unless the trend changes.

Republicans who took part in the latest poll were far more negative about her performance than they were four months ago. Now, 27 percent of GOP respondents said they disapprove of Brewer, compared to 18 percent who disapproved in May. That 9 percent difference is a big deal, whether or not the other numbers have meaning. 

Likely voters in Maricopa County were the most critical toward the governor - 32 percent negative to 24 percent favorable. Her reviews are also slipped in Rural Arizona - 18 percent favorable to 24 percent negative.

As was mentioned above, Brewer’s ratings are dismal compared to her predecessors. A media release that was distributed along with the poll figures states, “Voter assessment of the Governor remain significantly lower than those of her two predecessors, Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull, clear evidence that her struggles with GOP lawmakers over taxes and the 2010 budget have had an enduring impact.”

Here are the actual results and the exact wording of the question regarding Brewer’s performance that was asked during the survey:

“Next, I’d like to read you the names of some public officials. As I read each one, please just
tell me if you think the job they are doing in office is excellent, good, fair, poor or very
poor.”

EARLY JOB RATINGS FOR ARIZONA GOVERNORS
                                           Excellent/Good    Fair       Poor/Very Poor      (Net Pos to Neg)
Jan Brewer           - Sept 2009     22%              30%                 28%                        (-6)
                           - May 2009      24%             32%                 26%                         (-2)
Janet Napolitano - Oct 2003       46%             30%                 16%                        (+30)
                           -April 2003      49%             24%                 10%                       (+39)
Jane Hull             - Jan 1998        56%             20%                  3%                        (+53)
                           - Oct 1997        45%            20%                  4%                        (+41)

CURRENT READINGS FOR GOVERNOR JAN BREWER
Total population                          22%             20%                 28%                       (-6)
Registered voters only                 24%             28%                 31%                       (-7)
Republicans                                 30%             28%                 27%                       (+3)
Independents                               16%             26%                 38%                      (-22)
Democrats                                   24%             30%                  31%                      (-7)
Maricopa                                      24%             28%                 32%                       (-8)
Pima                                             23%             30%                 19%                       (+4)
Rural                                            18%             34%                 24%                       (-6)

To see the full results of this and other polls by the Behavior Research Center, go to www.brcpolls.com.

Even I was surprised by the results of our online poll. I expected Dean Martin to rank highly, as well as Jan Brewer. But I had no idea Vernon Parker would top the results.

On Sept. 9 we asked readers to vote for the person they would most want to see as the Republican nominee for governor in 2010. During the past 12 days, we were overwhelmed with responses. Though the methodology was not scientific, I do believe the results are interesting, if not significant - especially considering most of our readers vote in every election and the fact that we had 824 responses.

Parker, the mayor of Paradise Valley, pretty much stomped on the other 10 people who were listed as possible gubernatorial candidates. He tallied 298 votes (36 percent), topping all other candidates by a wide margin. Next was state Treasurer Dean Martin with 230 votes (28 percent). The rest trailed far behind.

The list didn’t include most of the political neophytes who have filed committees so far, but it did include most of the people who’s names have been circulated in recent months. We started the poll days before Fife Symington told the Yellow Sheet that he was considering a run, so he wasn’t included.

But perhaps even more interesting was that Brewer, the incumbent, came in third, in a tie with Len Munsil, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2006 against Janet Napolitano. Both Brewer and Munsil garnered 70 votes (8 percent).

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, who hasn’t indicated any intention to run for governor, pulled down 50 votes (6 percent). U.S. Rep. John Shadegg, who also hasn’t said anything about running for governor, received 35 votes (4 percent). Secretary of State Ken Bennett received 27 votes; former U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters got 20 votes; former Arizona Republican Party Chairman John Munger got 10 votes; former Graham County Sheriff Richard Mack got 9 votes; and businessman Robert Graham got 5 votes. 

Our poll allows only one vote per person, although there was nothing stopping any of the candidates to solicit votes from friends, relatives and staff members. Perhaps Parker (or Jason Rose) wanted to generate some buzz and talked up our poll to those in his camp. Perhaps Brewer ignored our poll - after all, she was sort of busy.

But in any case, the poll was the first that I’ve seen that put these GOP candidates in a head-to-head matchup. And the results have at least made me give a little more weight to a Parker candidacy, which, by the way, he is expected to kick off this week.

Those of us in the Capitol Times newsroom just spent nearly an hour discussing Fife Symington’s revelation to the Yellow Sheet that he is leaning toward a run for governor in 2010, and we can’t come to a consensus about whether he’s serious.

Some of us believe he sincerely wants to run, and that he eventually will. Others, though, aren’t so sure. After all, he said a few years back that he was planning to run against Janet Napolitano in the 2006 gubernatorial election, and then backed out a few months later saying he wanted to concentrate on running his consulting business, The Symington Group.

It’s notable that he’s got more baggage than any of the other Republicans who have considered a campaign. He was convicted of bank fraud in 1997 and had to resign as governor because state law doesn’t allow felons to hold state office. Two years later, his conviction was overturned by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals and he was later pardoned by his old pal Bill Clinton.

At the same time, he might have more name recognition than most of the other potential candidates. He was governor for more than six years, starting in 1991. He has a large band of loyal supporters in GOP ranks. He should have no problem raising enough money to sustain a bid. And his family has a deep background in politics.

Yet many of his former cohorts are now in Gov. Brewer’s camp, so which way would they gravitate if both decide to run? It’s anyone’s guess at this point, but it would create a dilemma for at least a few top-level politicos.

It all makes me wonder if there’s more to this story; for instance, is Symington’s announcement a ploy to get Brewer to bow out? And, if so, is Symington really the most viable GOP candidate? I’ve been trying to figure out who benefits most from a Brewer withdrawal.

Lastly, Symington won a narrow victory over Democrat Terry Goddard in his first bid for governor in 1990. If he runs again next year and if he wins the primary, Arizonans likely will be in store for a very interesting race that certainly would conjure bits of state history.

For the full interview with Symington and more details, go to http://www.yellowsheetreport.com/home.htm/page/newsArticle.newsArticle&articleID=7260

A new poll was released today (Aug. 31), and the results don’t bode well for Gov. Jan Brewer’s chances for election to a full term. It also looks bad for the Arizona Legislature.

Apparently, voters are fed up with Brewer and state lawmakers - Brewer especially. Only 18 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Brewer, while 46 percent said they would vote for “someone else.” Thirty-six percent said they were undecided.

It appears Brewer will have to change a lot of people’s minds between now and next fall if she wants to retain the Ninth Floor. Even among Republicans, Brewer didn’t fare well; only 23 percent of GOP voters said they would vote for her, indicating she will have considerable difficulty in a primary election.

Granted, Brewer has only said she is leaning toward running for a full term. But that’s as definitive as she’s been so far. Until last week, her plans for next year were even murkier.

Her proposed sales tax increase did much better than she did, however, with 49 percent saying they approve of the plan. Forty-three percent said they disapprove, which leaves 8 percent on the fence. Democrats were largely in favor of the sales tax increase.

Perhaps more importantly, 57 percent of the respondents said the state is on the wrong track. Only 18 percent thought the state is headed in the right direction.

The Legislature also received poor marks. Sixty-one percent said lawmakers’ performance was not to their liking. Twenty percent said the Legislature was doing a good job.

The top concerns among those polled were public education funding, followed by illegal immigration and the state budget. University funding, the environment and transportation were among the least of their concerns.

The poll was commissioned by Wil Cardon of the real estate firm The Cardon Group, and was publicized by Rose and Allyn Public Relations. The Phoenix-based Summit Group surveyed 602 “high-efficacy Arizona voters” on Aug. 20-25. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent.

Forty percent of the respondents were Republicans, 33 percent were Democrats and the rest were independent or unaffiliated.

It’s notable that the media release that accompanied the poll results noted that Mr. Cardon has been named as a potential candidate for governor, treasurer and Arizona Republican Party Chairman. Sounds like someone is trying to instigate a revolt.

To view the results of the survey, go to

http://azcapitoltimes.com/wp-files/pdfs/statewide-issues-poll.pdf

It’s extremely unlikely that Gov. Jan Brewer will sign all of the budget bills that the Legislature sent to her Aug. 20. She has nothing to gain and everything to lose by allowing this budget to stand.

After pushing for a sales tax increase for months and vetoing a budget that didn’t include a ballot referral for the increase, Brewer has already run cross-wise with many Republicans who she would be counting on if she decides to seek a full term in 2010. Backing down now would only make her look wishy-washy.

In fact, if she signs the whole package, people would wonder why she put the state through so much trauma by vetoing a budget, which is very similar to the one on her desk now, back on July 1.

What do I mean by trauma? Well, there are plenty of examples. For instance, lawmakers have been tied up in knots for almost two months in a special session to address her concerns over the first set of bills, the state is teetering on the brink of insolvency, state cash tied up in investments has been yanked to cover operating expenses, and Treasurer Dean Martin has been crowing about the very likely possibility that the state will have to borrow money from the private sector (including interest upon repayment) to make up for the lack of a spending plan.

Not only that, but she may have irreparably damaged her image and her chances of being elected next year by continuing to fight with the very Republicans who heralded her ascension to the Ninth Floor.

If she was going to back off her sales tax increase, now would not be the ideal time. She would be seen as having a lack of resolve - voters aren’t real keen on state officials who get beat into submission by their rivals. And fiscal conservatives aren’t about to forgive her for months of pushing for a sales tax increase.

Ideology aside, she has to continue to demand a tax increase. If not the sales tax referral, then something else that would allow her to save face.

She can’t do that if she signs the budget bills as they stand now. Therefore, she is likely to sign the ones that aren’t too controversial - H2014 already has been signed, and others might follow - but veto everything that lawmakers hold dear until they give her what she wants. The repeal of the equalization property tax is one of those bills that might be held hostage while she presses for a tax increase, but it’s not the only one.

She needs leverage. Period.

Let’s say Brewer really doesn’t care about her own political future, and that she is telling the truth when she says she’s trying to do what’s best for the state. Even under that scenario, she would have no incentive to back down now - after all, if she believes the state needs a sales tax increase, then allowing a budget to pass without one would, following her own logic, present even more problems for the state.

If she believes that, then she will have to keep on keeping on.

Bottom line: This mess is probably going to continue for another week or so. At least.

Incidentally, Arizona is one of three states without a fiscal 2010 budget. Connecticut and Pennsylvania are the other two. Even California, which some people see as the poster child of bad fiscal management, was able to pass something.

I’ve already postponed my vacation plans until the end of September. At this rate, perhaps I should just cancel them altogether.

Don’t expect the budget to gain much traction this week - at least not the version passed by the House that includes a mix of income tax cuts, a 5 percent reduction in the state work force and a ballot referral for a sales tax increase.

We hear it’s a no-go in the Senate, where Pamela Gorman and Ron Gould are holding out because of the tax referral and Carolyn Allen is holding out because of the tax cut. Allen stayed away from the Capitol last week because of knee injury that might require surgery, but she told us she is opposed to the budget plan and won’t vote for the proposed $400 million income tax cut.

None of those three are likely to change their minds. Gould ain’t voting for it; he just keeps getting more and more opposed to taxes as each day passes, saying last week that he’ll never vote for a tax increase. Gorman likely won’t vote for it; she already spent hours getting cajoled by the governor, but nothing came of it. And Allen voted against some of the budget bills, even before the income tax reduction was added, so she’s likely to stand firm as well.

Sen. Jim Waring is out of town, but he said he’d come back if his vote was needed to pass the budget. So, we’re counting him as a “yes,” though technically he’s absent.

Same goes for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Gray, who is on a cruise but is expected to be ready to fly back to cast his vote if necessary.

That leaves 15 votes in the Senate, one short of the number needed to pass the 10 budget bills. That’s the same math that stalled the budget’s passage last week. It’s likely to do the same this week, unless a new round of negotiations begins.

Because no action is likely this week on the existing proposal, GOP leaders might opt to go back to the drawing board with Democrats to see if they can craft something with bipartisan approval that is strong enough to override a governor’s veto.

The only other option, besides continuing to pound on the three Senate Republicans, would be to try to peel off a Democrat. Janet Napolitano was masterful at finding a Republican vote or two when she needed them, but it remains to be seen if Brewer has the same skills or cache.

It’s likely a lot of people will want to weigh in on the budget proposal the House voted through last night. So, I’ll post ‘em as I get ‘em. Already received a few statements in my e-mail inbox this morning. And lawmakers had a few things to say last night after the vote.

Let’s start with Attorney General Terry Goddard, who blasted not only the Legislature, but the governor as well. Go figure. Here’s his statement:

“The Legislature and governor have, once again, failed in their most basic constitutional duty - passing a balanced budget. This gridlock just makes Arizona’s economic situation worse and reveals a total lack of leadership at the Capitol.”

Here’s something from the governor:

“I’m very grateful for what happened over in the House and I think that we will be successful,” Gov. Jan Brewer said after meeting with Sen. Pamela Gorman. The governor was referring to the House’s passage of the budget deal.  

Now Gorman:

“I can’t even begin to tell you what’s wrong with this (proposal),” she said.

From the House:

“Folks, sometimes being down here is pure hell. And that’s what it is right now: pure hell,” said Rep. Ray Barnes, a Phoenix Republican who supported the budget package.

“It’s either take this deal, settle on a worse deal or run out of money and leave schools and everyone else in the lurch, and I just can’t do that,” said Rep. Debbie Lesko, a Glendale Republican.

Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens put this in a statement:

“Arizona is a full month into the new fiscal year, but the governor and Republicans are still stuck back on June 30. There is no budget. There is no legitimate inclusion of duly elected Democrats. Nothing has been accomplished. Their failed leadership has repeated itself day after day, while our state continues to suffer. Arizona needs a strong governor, but what we have instead is a Republican-led deadlock.”

More to come, and don’t forget comments are encouraged.

It was, without question, a strange set of circumstances that led to the unanimous approval of four budget bills on July 6. Four months of infighting among Republicans. A legal challenge of the original GOP-authored state budget. Sweeping vetoes by a Republican governor. A last-minute effort to involve Democrats. And Bob Burns letting lose a tirade of criticism for whom many people expected to be the Republicans’ next best hope for retaining the Ninth Floor.

Yet, somehow, 70 or more lawmakers were able to agree on the four budget bills. And nobody in the House or the Senate opposed them.

So, it’s notable anytime the Arizona Legislature votes unanimously for anything of substance; lawmakers do find themselves in accord, perhaps a dozen or more times each year, but usually on minor, technical changes. Yet the newfound camaraderie between Republican and Democratic lawmakers exhibited on the first day of the special session seems to send a strong signal to the Gov. Jan Brewer that the Legislature intends to assert control over the rest of the budget process - whether Brewer likes the final package or not.

After all, it would be very difficult, if not completely impractical, for the governor to reject a budget that has solid bipartisan support, even if it doesn’t include her proposal for a sales tax increase. Forty representatives and 20 senators can override her veto.

That doesn’t mean Brewer won’t get what she wants; legislative leadership plans to meet tomorrow to discuss other budget issues that have yet to be resolved, and lawmakers still need to come up with the revenue to plug a deficit of at least $2 billion. A tax increase may be used to raise revenue, more cuts may be enacted, the state may sell additional assets or even borrow into the future.

That will be decided sometime after lawmakers restart the special session on July 13, which, by the way, is Brewer’s deadline to sign or reject the 180 or so non-budget bills that were passed in the final weeks of the regular session. The weeklong delay, intentionally or not, removes any possibility that Brewer could hold hostage any non-budget bills while trying to negotiate a positive resolution to her sales tax proposal.

Meanwhile, Brewer has given all appearances that she’s thrilled by the Legislature’s swift action. She told Capitol Times reporter Jeremy Duda that the additional $400 million for education included in H2001 shows that lawmakers have responded to her calls to protect public schools’ funding and that they intend to come up with some way to raise the revenue necessary for a balanced budget.

That seems logical to a point; Brewer has indeed been pushing for shallower cuts to education, and her vetoes made possible the second round of budget bills. But then she went on to say it wouldn’t surprise her if lawmakers passed a sales tax increase on their own. In other words, no referendum.

Hmmm. Not sure what to make of that, considering it was not possible to rally a simple majority to approve a ballot measure that would allow voters to decide for themselves whether to raise sales taxes. So, rounding up a legislative supermajority to support a measure that would raise taxes without asking voters seems like wishful thinking. Politically - and for some, ideologically - that scenario is completely unpalatable.

Even after Brewer convinced Senate President Bob Burns to prop up her sales tax referral in the final days of the regular session, it’s highly unlikely he would vote for legislation that increases taxes without allowing voters to weigh in. Add to that list Sens. Russell Pearce, Jack Harper, Ron Gould, Thayer Verschoor, Jim Waring, Steve Pierce, Chuck Gray, Pamela Gorman, Sylvia Allen and others - and that’s just in the Senate.

Many Republicans in the House also have warned Brewer to count them out. And Democrats in both chambers have withheld support for raising the state sales tax.

So, to me, the unanimous vote on the four budget bills carries a much different message than Brewer seems to have received. One way of looking at it is that lawmakers are saying she can veto all she wants, but to no avail. And that wouldn’t bode well for her tax plan.

With 2010 around the corner, Democrats wouldn’t be too upset if Brewer emerges from this chaos looking as though she lacks the political muscle to push her agenda. And, judging by Burns’ recent comments about Brewer’s leadership abilities, it might not disappoint him too much either.

In this case, unanimity among lawmakers, many of whom weren’t involved in serious budget talks until last week, should be somewhat unsettling to Brewer, even if she did get part of what she had requested.

Sometimes the story about getting the story is better than what ends up in print. This time, we’re determined not to let that happen. It’s just too doggone funny.

Hours before the fiscal deadline and with a government shutdown looming, the media were clamoring in the halls of the Capitol seeking answers to a slew of tough questions - the kind, actually, that should send shivers up the spines of policymakers.

Gov. Jan Brewer, meanwhile, was holding last-minute budget meetings with Republican leadership and various House Democrats in House Speaker Kirk Adams’ office.

Capitol Times reporter Jim Small, who relayed this story to me, had waited out the duration of the two-hour meeting in the lobby of the speaker’s office with a pair of other reporters, the intrepid Howie Fischer and Daniel Scarpinato of the Arizona Daily Star. About 45 minutes before the meeting broke up, shuffling noises came from further back in the speaker’s office. It was Brewer and her top aides exiting; the door clicked open and Brewer could be heard talking.

First out of the office and into the doorway of the ante room was Brewer’s chief of staff, Kevin Tyne. But before Brewer could round the corner, Tyne slammed on the brakes and directed everyone back into Adams’ office. The three scribes half-joked that Tyne had seen the Fourth Estate waiting to pepper the governor with questions, so he herded her back into the safety of the speaker’s office to ensure she was prepared.

Just in case the governor decided to avoid the reporters waiting at the office’s main entrance – there are a handful of ways to enter or leave the speaker’s office – the reporters kept an eye on her DPS security detail, who was parked comfortably in a chair in the ante room for much of the stakeout.

Occasionally, the DPS officer would walk over to the interior of the office, near Adams’ assistants. Though he was out of the reporters’ direct line of sight, a mirror on the far wall allowed them to see the DPS officer and ensure he hadn’t left. After all, Brewer wasn’t going anywhere without him.

The jokes about Tyne’s retreat rang true a short time later, as Paul Senseman, the governor’s spokesman, arrived and entered the office. A half-hour or so went by, and the print reporters were joined by a reporter from Channel 12 who was there for another story but decided to wait out Brewer and possibly get an interview with her that his TV competitors wouldn’t be able to match.

Then, Senseman emerged from the office and offered to answer questions. The three newspaper reporters were lukewarm to the idea of talking with the governor’s spokesman again – a reporter can take only so many non-committal answers to what should be simple questions – but the TV guys jumped at the chance.

Senseman set up camp right in the doorway, with the Channel 12 cameraman and reporter in the hallway. After a few questions, the rest of the reporters reluctantly joined in, asking Senseman about the budget situation and the looming government shutdown.

Suddenly, as Jim tells it, he heard the clicking sound of a door being shut. He turned and looked in the mirror, glancing at where the security detail had been moments before. The officer was gone, and the sound was the door to Adams’ office being shut.

Jim grabbed Scarpinato’s arm, nodded toward the back of the office and said, “The guard’s gone. They’re taking off.” Senseman had been used as a diversion so Brewer could leave without facing the press.

Scarpinato squeezed past Senseman, and Jim followed, moving quickly toward the back stairs in the House. Howie and the TV folks were right behind. Just as the press corps’ finest arrived at the back stairwell, the door slammed shut. They opened the door and, sure enough, there was Brewer on the landing, halfway down to the ground floor, with Tyne right behind her and the DPS officer in front of her.

The questions began to flow. But Brewer never stopped. She gave a few answers as she walked out the back door and toward the parking lot. A pair of reporters from the Arizona Guardian were outside waiting, snapping photos of the governor as she was escorted to her waiting car by the Channel 12 cameraman and the four reporters. Once in the parking lot, she jumped in the back seat of a waiting black Chrysler 300 and took off, followed closely by another DPS vehicle.

That’s the backstory, straight from Jim Small. As a side note, the only part of this that ended up in our earlier news story was the following quote from Brewer:

“We didn’t offer the Democrats anything other than telling them what the bill includes and asked them for support,” Brewer, also a Republican, said to reporters as she left the House down the back stairs.

So, let your imagination run wild the next time you see a quote followed by something like “… said to reporters as she left the House down the back stairs.” What really happened is probably even weirder than you’d think.