AZ Policy Wonk

Another poll shows dismal approval ratings for Gov. Jan Brewer. This time, pollsters contrasted her performance, as judged by Arizona residents, with those of former governors Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull.

And, if the approval/disapproval ratings of former governors can be used as a benchmark, Brewer has a lot to worry about heading into 2010.

Only 22 percent of the 800 people interviewed for the latest Rocky Mountain Poll (conducted Sept. 9-18 by the Behavior Research Center) said they approve of Brewer’s performance. That’s down from 24 percent approval in May when a similar poll was conducted.

At the same time, the percentage of voters who disapprove of her performance went up by two percent. Twenty-eight percent rated her performance as “poor,” compared to 26 percent in May.

Both of the figures above fall within the margin of error for the poll, so maybe they don’t mean much. And there is still the murky designation of “fair,” which 30 percent of voters used to rate Brewer (it was 32 percent in May).

But there is something that has changed signicantly, and it could hurt Brewer in the primary unless the trend changes.

Republicans who took part in the latest poll were far more negative about her performance than they were four months ago. Now, 27 percent of GOP respondents said they disapprove of Brewer, compared to 18 percent who disapproved in May. That 9 percent difference is a big deal, whether or not the other numbers have meaning. 

Likely voters in Maricopa County were the most critical toward the governor – 32 percent negative to 24 percent favorable. Her reviews are also slipped in Rural Arizona – 18 percent favorable to 24 percent negative.

As was mentioned above, Brewer’s ratings are dismal compared to her predecessors. A media release that was distributed along with the poll figures states, “Voter assessment of the Governor remain significantly lower than those of her two predecessors, Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull, clear evidence that her struggles with GOP lawmakers over taxes and the 2010 budget have had an enduring impact.”

Here are the actual results and the exact wording of the question regarding Brewer’s performance that was asked during the survey:

“Next, I’d like to read you the names of some public officials. As I read each one, please just
tell me if you think the job they are doing in office is excellent, good, fair, poor or very
poor.”

EARLY JOB RATINGS FOR ARIZONA GOVERNORS
                                           Excellent/Good    Fair       Poor/Very Poor      (Net Pos to Neg)
Jan Brewer           – Sept 2009     22%              30%                 28%                        (-6)
                           - May 2009      24%             32%                 26%                         (-2)
Janet Napolitano – Oct 2003       46%             30%                 16%                        (+30)
                           -April 2003      49%             24%                 10%                       (+39)
Jane Hull             – Jan 1998        56%             20%                  3%                        (+53)
                           – Oct 1997        45%            20%                  4%                        (+41)

CURRENT READINGS FOR GOVERNOR JAN BREWER
Total population                          22%             20%                 28%                       (-6)
Registered voters only                 24%             28%                 31%                       (-7)
Republicans                                 30%             28%                 27%                       (+3)
Independents                               16%             26%                 38%                      (-22)
Democrats                                   24%             30%                  31%                      (-7)
Maricopa                                      24%             28%                 32%                       (-8)
Pima                                             23%             30%                 19%                       (+4)
Rural                                            18%             34%                 24%                       (-6)

To see the full results of this and other polls by the Behavior Research Center, go to www.brcpolls.com.

Don’t expect the budget to gain much traction this week – at least not the version passed by the House that includes a mix of income tax cuts, a 5 percent reduction in the state work force and a ballot referral for a sales tax increase.

We hear it’s a no-go in the Senate, where Pamela Gorman and Ron Gould are holding out because of the tax referral and Carolyn Allen is holding out because of the tax cut. Allen stayed away from the Capitol last week because of knee injury that might require surgery, but she told us she is opposed to the budget plan and won’t vote for the proposed $400 million income tax cut.

None of those three are likely to change their minds. Gould ain’t voting for it; he just keeps getting more and more opposed to taxes as each day passes, saying last week that he’ll never vote for a tax increase. Gorman likely won’t vote for it; she already spent hours getting cajoled by the governor, but nothing came of it. And Allen voted against some of the budget bills, even before the income tax reduction was added, so she’s likely to stand firm as well.

Sen. Jim Waring is out of town, but he said he’d come back if his vote was needed to pass the budget. So, we’re counting him as a “yes,” though technically he’s absent.

Same goes for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Gray, who is on a cruise but is expected to be ready to fly back to cast his vote if necessary.

That leaves 15 votes in the Senate, one short of the number needed to pass the 10 budget bills. That’s the same math that stalled the budget’s passage last week. It’s likely to do the same this week, unless a new round of negotiations begins.

Because no action is likely this week on the existing proposal, GOP leaders might opt to go back to the drawing board with Democrats to see if they can craft something with bipartisan approval that is strong enough to override a governor’s veto.

The only other option, besides continuing to pound on the three Senate Republicans, would be to try to peel off a Democrat. Janet Napolitano was masterful at finding a Republican vote or two when she needed them, but it remains to be seen if Brewer has the same skills or cache.