AZ Policy Wonk

I have been a regular on the Capitol luncheon circuit for the past three years, which qualifies me a connoisseur of chicken, political speeches and the sauces that they put on chicken to make it seem like their chicken is different than the last chicken.

By connoisseur, I mean I’m picky. For example, I often avoid writing about the keynote speeches at lunchtime events because they are generally frilly, predictable and unsubstantial. Furthermore, even though I always eat the chicken, I rarely enjoy it.

But the experience was much different on April 5 at the Arizona Chamber of Commerce’s Update from Capitol Hill Luncheon. Although the speakers – Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl – spent a fair share of their stage time rehashing all the ways Democrats are screwing up the country, they also gave some pretty insightful predictions about what Congress will do next, now that its finished the monumental task of passing the federal health care law.

I had just carved out my first bite of – you guessed, it – chicken when Kyl started out his speech with, as he put it, “a few declarative statements about what I think is going to happen.” When I heard that, I stopped eating and started taking notes.

First of all, Kyl said he doesn’t think Congress will pass the Employee Free Choice Act, known as card-check legislation. But he said he’s worried that the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) will agree to an administrative rule that would allow the establishment of labor unions without a secret-ballot vote, essentially as outlined by the card-check legislation.

Kyl was worried that the appointments of two Democrats to the NLRB – Craig Becker and Mark Pearce – will shift the board solidly to the left and give unions an advantage in labor agreements.

For the past two years, three of the five seats on the board were empty, and many of the cases the board dealt with wound up gridlocked when the two members of the board couldn’t agree. President Obama’s recess appointments of Pearce and Becker leave only one seat open – a seat reserved for a Republican.

Becker, Kyl said, was particularly concerning, given his background as an attorney for the AFL-CIO and the Service Employees International Union. It’s likely, Kyl said, that Becker will lead the charge for an administrative rule change that would create a cap-and-trade program similar to the one outlined in the Employee Free Choice Act.

On Immigration reform, Kyl said it’s not likely to occur this year because President Obama “doesn’t have the courage to take on the issue” because of its political ramifications. The immigration measures proposed so far lack the support necessary to pass, Kyl said, and none of the bills will move forward until it addresses two priorities: the creation of a guest-worker program, the deployment of 20,000 National Guard troops to the border, and continued funding for a border fence.

“Before immigration reform has a chance, we have some unfinished work to do,” Kyl said.

McCain, after predicting Kyl would someday become majority leader of the Senate, said creating a legal worker program “has to be part of any (legislation) addressing the issue in this country.” He also said border security must be the top priority because the gang violence that has swept across Mexico “threatens the existence of the Mexican government.”

Any legislation that deviates from those priorities won’t have enough support to pass, said Kyl, the Senate minority whip.

Two final predications: Kyl said Congress will vote to increase spending on unemployment benefits; McCain said the U.S. will not meet its renewable energy requirements without additional nuclear power.

Of course, the pair couldn’t resist taking a few jabs at their political opponents. McCain said Nancy Pelosi was the reason offshore drilling was not allowed on the West Coast. Kyl said the federal stimulus has failed to create private-sector jobs. And McCain noted the health care law inexplicably provided $100 million to a hospital in Connecticut.

There’s more where that came from. But I focused on the new because I’m tired of the old. A person can stand only so much repetition at one time – and I was already stuck with the chicken.

The U.S. House of Representatives on March 21 voted 219 to 212 to pass the health care legislation that the Senate had already approved. The vote sends the measure to President Obama, who expects to sign the legislation March 23.

Republican U.S. Reps. Jeff Flake, Trent Franks and John Shadegg voted against the health care legislation. Democratic U.S. Reps. Ed Pastor, Raul Grijalva, Ann Kirkpatrick, Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell voted for it.

After approving the bill, the House voted for a package of changes to it. That package now goes to the Senate for approval. The package was negotiated among members of the House, Senate and the Obama administration.

Right after the House vote, most of Arizona’s congressional delegation began sending out press releases to explain either their support or their opposition. Candidates for Congress also weighed in. Check out their comments below.

“After a year of debate, studying bills, and listening to Arizonans, one thing has been made clear. We cannot sustain the path we are on because health care costs are burdening Arizona families, hurting the economy and slowing the recovery. This package would strengthen Medicare for seniors, maintain TRICARE for veterans, help mitigate the impact of Medicaid costs on Arizona, and make health insurance more accessible and affordable for individuals, families and small businesses. Additionally, it would rein in costs and reduce the deficit.” – U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, a Democrat who represents Arizona’s 5th Congressional District.

“Congressman Harry Mitchell has betrayed his constituents, his state and our country. His vote Sunday night will be remembered and will have long lasting consequences not only in our state but beyond. In voting not once, but two times, to support the Democrat-led government takeover of our health care system, Congressman Mitchell is giving the green light to a crippling increase in public spending, enormous tax increases, the prospect of a new national sales tax and an unwarranted intrusion of government into our personal lives.” - Jim Ward, a Republican candidate for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District.

“I have spent months traveling the district talking about health care, and my conversations with folks in our communities reminded me of what was at stake for Arizonans. I talked with Jonathan in Williams, who after spending 24 hours in the hospital over Christmas was charged $34,000 for his stay. I talked with Marlene in Florence, whose health insurance premiums rose every month to the point where she just could not afford her plan anymore – and was diagnosed with leukemia soon after she lost coverage. And I talked with Jim and Diane in Cottonwood, who are working multiple jobs to pay for their son’s asthma medication. I voted to pass reform for Jonathan, for Marlene, for Jim and Diane and for thousands of others like them who have been failed by the system.” – U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a Democrat representing Arizona’s 1st Congressional District.

“I am deeply disappointed that Representative Giffords has so blatantly voted against the majority of voters in her district. Her vote for a large, new federal health care entitlement will both increase deficit spending and restrict free market health care options available to residents of District 8. When I am in Congress, I will do everything in my power to reverse Obamacare and enact real free market solutions that truly increase competition and lower costs.” – Jesse Kelly, a Republican candidate for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.

“President Barack Obama and Democrats in this majority have now shoved this bill down the throats of the American people without even a single Republican vote. Never before has such sweeping legislation been done with a purely partisan vote. Therefore, whatever ill comes from this bill, history should record that Democrats and Democrats alone chose the path of socialism over the highway of freedom. Let this and future generations hold them accountable.” – U.S. Rep. Trent Franks, a Republican who represents Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District.

“Reform has always been about assisting the most vulnerable in our society. That’s why I’ve made this last year about doing what I can on their behalf. In that light, I could cast no other vote today. Our status quo is simply unsustainable. The people of this country have been crying out for Congress to act. Because we acted today, by the end of this year no insurer will be allowed to deny coverage for pre-existing conditions. No company can cut off benefits because it wants a bigger profit margin. All insurers will be required to treat everyone more equally regardless of age, race and gender. Today, we commit significant support to community health centers around the country that provide medical care to the most vulnerable in society. Those are significant achievements.” – U.S. Rep. Raul Grijalva, a Democrat who represents Arizona’s 7th Congressional District.

“After hearing from thousands of my constituents on this topic over the past year, I am convinced that something must be done to hold insurance companies accountable, give Southern Arizonans greater health care choices and bring down medical costs. The legislation before us, while far from perfect, represents a needed step forward. Last fall, I was proud to support legislation that included a public option. My constituents know that I am a former small business owner who believes in common sense solutions. I know first-hand the challenge of providing employee health insurance as costs climb every year.” – U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat who represents Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.

“Over the past year, this health care bill has become an outrage; an outrage that has become a revolution. And this revolution, I promise you, on the first Tuesday in November, will lead to a shake-up in Washington the likes of which we have not seen in a generation.” – Jonathan Paton, a Republican candidate for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.

“Well, we’ll begin in this reconciliation … that’s going to come to the Senate in the next couple of days, and then we’ll fight in the courts, and then we will fight at the rallies and the Tea Parties, and the town hall meetings, and we will fight in the ballot booth, and we will prevail, and we will defeat this, because the United States of America and the State of Arizona cannot afford this. … The point is that this is a direct contradiction to the overwhelming majority opinion of the American people. It’s the first time in history a major change has been made when – with only on a partisan basis, and I can assure you that this will have a harmful effect. … It’s the worst sausage-making process that I’ve ever seen since I’ve been here.” – U.S. Sen. John McCain, a Republican who is up for re-election this year, speaking on Channel 3′s Good Morning Arizona.

“The legislation creates an avalanche of new agencies, rules and regulations that will vastly expand federal power over the most intimate aspects of each of our lives. It also contains unsustainable, unconstitutional and unaffordable mandates on the states and on individuals alike, including an unprecedented requirement that citizens buy private insurance policies. I support legal challenges to the health care bill’s enforcement as well as legislative efforts toward its repeal.” - J.D. Hayworth, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.

It appears Sen. John McCain is viewed by Arizona voters only slightly more favorably than President Obama, at least when it comes to the percentage of people who think the two federal officials are doing an “excellent” or “good” job.

A new Rocky Mountain Poll by the Behavior Research Center shows McCain with a 48 percent approval rating, while Obama’s is at 47 percent. The poll was conducted among 800 Arizonans (629 were registered voters) from Sept. 9-18. The results were released Sept. 28. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

Though both officials had a favorable rating overall – the percentage of those who viewed Obama’s job performance as “poor” or “very poor” was much higher than McCain’s. Thirty-two percent said Obama was doing a bad job, while 21 percent said they disapprove of McCain’s job performance.

The Behavior Research Center somehow took this to mean that the results reflect “the fierce attacks from the GOP toward nearly all aspects of (Obama’s) policies,” according to an analysis released along with the poll.

Those who wrote the analysis noted a deep partisan divide, and provided numbers to back that up. But it’s not clear how they made the leap that in Obama’s case it meant that people view him disfavorably due to Republican attacks.

“It also appears that these attacks have been most successful among voters over 55 years of age, middle income voters and Caucasians,” according to the analysis. “On the other hand, groups in which Mr. Obama remains favorably evaluated by a majority include ethnic minorities (especially Hispanics) both lower and upper income voters and voters under the age of 55.”

Those who disapproved of Obama’s performance were mostly Republicans (58 percent said he was doing a poor or very poor job). Many independents also viewed him unfavorably (31 percent said he was doing a poor or very poor job). Among Democrats, only 9 percent said he was doing poorly.

The results weren’t as partisan for McCain, although he did, of course, fare better among Republicans. Thirty-eight percent of Democrats and 28 percent of independents said he was doing a bad job. Thirteen percent of Republicans disapproved of his performance.

The pollsters also surveyed the job performance of Sen. Jon Kyl, whose results were similar to McCain’s. Kyl registered a 44 percent approval rating, while tallying 24 percent in the poor or very poor categories. A further breakdown of his results are below.

The wild card, once again, is the designation “fair” that is used in Rocky Mountain Polls. It’s sort of a murky designation that I interpret as those who are undecided about a politician’s performance; they could be swayed either way, or they are not paying close attention. McCain registered a 31 percent in the fair category, Kyl was at 32 percent, and Obama had a 21 percent.

It’s interesting that 94 percent of those polled had opinions on McCain and Obama, while only 75 percent responded for Kyl. It appears the Senate minority whip still doesn’t carry the same name recognition of his Senate counterpart in their home state. Perhaps a run for president (successful or not) would change that.

Poll Question: “Would you say that (public official’s name) is doing an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job in office?” 

                         Excellent/Good     Fair     Poor/Very Poor

President Barack Obama   
All voters                    47%                 21%             32%
Democrats                  75%                 16%              9%
independents              46%                 23%             31%
Republicans                17%                 25%             58%

U.S. Sen. John McCain
All Voters                    48%                31%             21%
Democrats                  37%                32%             31%
independents              38%                34%             28%
Republicans                56%                31%             13%