AZ Policy Wonk

Don’t expect the budget to gain much traction this week - at least not the version passed by the House that includes a mix of income tax cuts, a 5 percent reduction in the state work force and a ballot referral for a sales tax increase.

We hear it’s a no-go in the Senate, where Pamela Gorman and Ron Gould are holding out because of the tax referral and Carolyn Allen is holding out because of the tax cut. Allen stayed away from the Capitol last week because of knee injury that might require surgery, but she told us she is opposed to the budget plan and won’t vote for the proposed $400 million income tax cut.

None of those three are likely to change their minds. Gould ain’t voting for it; he just keeps getting more and more opposed to taxes as each day passes, saying last week that he’ll never vote for a tax increase. Gorman likely won’t vote for it; she already spent hours getting cajoled by the governor, but nothing came of it. And Allen voted against some of the budget bills, even before the income tax reduction was added, so she’s likely to stand firm as well.

Sen. Jim Waring is out of town, but he said he’d come back if his vote was needed to pass the budget. So, we’re counting him as a “yes,” though technically he’s absent.

Same goes for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Gray, who is on a cruise but is expected to be ready to fly back to cast his vote if necessary.

That leaves 15 votes in the Senate, one short of the number needed to pass the 10 budget bills. That’s the same math that stalled the budget’s passage last week. It’s likely to do the same this week, unless a new round of negotiations begins.

Because no action is likely this week on the existing proposal, GOP leaders might opt to go back to the drawing board with Democrats to see if they can craft something with bipartisan approval that is strong enough to override a governor’s veto.

The only other option, besides continuing to pound on the three Senate Republicans, would be to try to peel off a Democrat. Janet Napolitano was masterful at finding a Republican vote or two when she needed them, but it remains to be seen if Brewer has the same skills or cache.

It’s likely a lot of people will want to weigh in on the budget proposal the House voted through last night. So, I’ll post ‘em as I get ‘em. Already received a few statements in my e-mail inbox this morning. And lawmakers had a few things to say last night after the vote.

Let’s start with Attorney General Terry Goddard, who blasted not only the Legislature, but the governor as well. Go figure. Here’s his statement:

“The Legislature and governor have, once again, failed in their most basic constitutional duty - passing a balanced budget. This gridlock just makes Arizona’s economic situation worse and reveals a total lack of leadership at the Capitol.”

Here’s something from the governor:

“I’m very grateful for what happened over in the House and I think that we will be successful,” Gov. Jan Brewer said after meeting with Sen. Pamela Gorman. The governor was referring to the House’s passage of the budget deal.  

Now Gorman:

“I can’t even begin to tell you what’s wrong with this (proposal),” she said.

From the House:

“Folks, sometimes being down here is pure hell. And that’s what it is right now: pure hell,” said Rep. Ray Barnes, a Phoenix Republican who supported the budget package.

“It’s either take this deal, settle on a worse deal or run out of money and leave schools and everyone else in the lurch, and I just can’t do that,” said Rep. Debbie Lesko, a Glendale Republican.

Arizona Democratic Party Chair Don Bivens put this in a statement:

“Arizona is a full month into the new fiscal year, but the governor and Republicans are still stuck back on June 30. There is no budget. There is no legitimate inclusion of duly elected Democrats. Nothing has been accomplished. Their failed leadership has repeated itself day after day, while our state continues to suffer. Arizona needs a strong governor, but what we have instead is a Republican-led deadlock.”

More to come, and don’t forget comments are encouraged.

It now appears as though the Senate is going to push one more time for a budget. And at least one key member who was planning a vacation has indicated she will stick around for one more day.

Sen. Pamela Gorman said last night she would postpone her trip and stay at the Capitol in case budget measures are voted on today. And we hear Sen. Jonathan Paton is planning to be here today; he had military obligations yesterday and wasn’t at the Capitol.

But it’s been difficult for both chambers to corral members these past few days, and it’s not clear whether House members who were planning to be out of town will be here instead.

It’s going to be an interesting ride today. Almost always is.