AZ Policy Wonk

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio received a high approval rating in the most recent Cronkite/Eight poll.

Sixty-one percent of Maricopa County voters said they approve or strongly approve of his job performance. Thirty-four percent disapprove or strongly disapprove.

It’s one of those love-him-or-hate-him kinds of things, as most voters logged in with a “strongly” response. Thirty-nine percent said they strongly approve of the job he’s doing, while 22 percent strongly disapproved. Four percent said they had no opinion.

The poll was conducted Oct. 22-25 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University and Eight/KAET.

Also, county voters disagreed overwhelmingly with the federal government’s decision to strip the sheriff’s department of a portion of its 287(g) agreement that allowed deputies to enforce U.S. immigration law during crime-suppression sweeps. Sixty percent disagreed with the decision, while 36 percent agreed. Again, four percent said they had no opinion.

An analysis that was released along with the poll results noted, however, that “Republicans, people with lower levels of formal education, and social conservatives were most supportive of the sheriff; Democrats, voters with higher levels of formal education, and social moderates were least supportive.”

The poll also gauged voters’ approval ratings for Treasurer Dean Martin, Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Attorney General Terry Goddard, Gov. Jan Brewer and Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas.

Not only that, but respondents were asked about swine flu and national health care reform. Full results are below.

The statewide sample of 652 registered voters was 37 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat and 29 percent Independent. Fifty-nine percent of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County, 17 percent in Pima County and 24 percent in Arizona’s other counties. Forty-nine percent of the voters interviewed were men and 51 percent are women. The sampling error for the statewide sample survey is plus or minus 3.8 percent. The sampling error for the Maricopa County sample, which included 389 registered voters, is plus or minus 5.0 percent.

Question wording:

First, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following Arizona state-level officials are doing. If you don’t feel you know enough about how they are doing to have an opinion, just tell me and I’ll go on to the next one. Let’s start with Governor Jan Brewer. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job she is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    2%     2%
 approve   37%   48%
 disapprove   30%   39%
 strongly disapprove    9%   11%
 don’t know/no opinion 22%   

How about the job Terry Goddard is doing as attorney general?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  11%   15%
 approve   44%   61%
 disapprove   13%   18%
 strongly disapprove    4%     6%
 don’t know/no opinion 28%  

What about the job Ken Bennett is doing as secretary of state?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    1%     3%
 approve   19%   61%
 disapprove     9%   30%
 strongly disapprove    2%     6%
 don’t know/no opinion 69%  

How about the job Dean Martin is doing as state treasurer?  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve    7%   14%
 approve   25%   50%
 disapprove    15%   31%
 strongly disapprove    3%     5%
 don’t know/no opinion 50%   

How important do you think it is for Congress to vote this year on a bill to reform our health care system? Do you think it is very important, important, not very important, or not at all important?

 very important   48%
 important   19%
 not very important  11%
 not at all important  19%
 don’t know/no opinion   3%

Would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private insurance companies?

favor    44%
oppose    49%
don’t know/no opinion   7%

Now, turning to the swine flu, when a vaccination becomes readily available in Arizona, will you get a swine flu vaccination?

 yes    41%
 no    54%
 don’t know/no opinion   5%

Regardless of how you feel about getting a swine flu vaccination, have you had or will you have a regular flu shot this year?
yes    58%
no    41%
don’t know/no opinion   1%

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following Maricopa County officials are doing. Again, if you don’t have enough information about how they are doing to rate them, just tell me and I’ll go to the next person. Let’s start with County Attorney Andrew Thomas. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove (9%/14) of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  12%   17%
 approve   32%   47%
 disapprove   14%   22%
 strongly disapprove    9%   14%
 don’t know/no opinion 33%  

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  How about the job Sheriff Joe Arpaio is doing.  Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job he is doing?

 Overall / Among those with an opinion
 strongly approve  39%   41%
 approve   22%   23%
 disapprove   13%   14%
 strongly disapprove  22%   22%
 don’t know/no opinion   4%  

IF MARICOPA COUNTY:  Under an agreement with the federal government, the Maricopa County sheriff’s department has had the authority to arrest illegal immigrants in the community and to screen the immigration status of people booked into the county jail. Recently, the federal government restricted Sheriff Arpaio to ONLY checking the immigration status of people when they are checked into jail. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to limit Arpaio’s immigration authority?

 agree    36% 
 disagree   60% 
 don’t know/no opinion   4%

Another poll shows dismal approval ratings for Gov. Jan Brewer. This time, pollsters contrasted her performance, as judged by Arizona residents, with those of former governors Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull.

And, if the approval/disapproval ratings of former governors can be used as a benchmark, Brewer has a lot to worry about heading into 2010.

Only 22 percent of the 800 people interviewed for the latest Rocky Mountain Poll (conducted Sept. 9-18 by the Behavior Research Center) said they approve of Brewer’s performance. That’s down from 24 percent approval in May when a similar poll was conducted.

At the same time, the percentage of voters who disapprove of her performance went up by two percent. Twenty-eight percent rated her performance as “poor,” compared to 26 percent in May.

Both of the figures above fall within the margin of error for the poll, so maybe they don’t mean much. And there is still the murky designation of “fair,” which 30 percent of voters used to rate Brewer (it was 32 percent in May).

But there is something that has changed signicantly, and it could hurt Brewer in the primary unless the trend changes.

Republicans who took part in the latest poll were far more negative about her performance than they were four months ago. Now, 27 percent of GOP respondents said they disapprove of Brewer, compared to 18 percent who disapproved in May. That 9 percent difference is a big deal, whether or not the other numbers have meaning. 

Likely voters in Maricopa County were the most critical toward the governor – 32 percent negative to 24 percent favorable. Her reviews are also slipped in Rural Arizona – 18 percent favorable to 24 percent negative.

As was mentioned above, Brewer’s ratings are dismal compared to her predecessors. A media release that was distributed along with the poll figures states, “Voter assessment of the Governor remain significantly lower than those of her two predecessors, Janet Napolitano and Jane Hull, clear evidence that her struggles with GOP lawmakers over taxes and the 2010 budget have had an enduring impact.”

Here are the actual results and the exact wording of the question regarding Brewer’s performance that was asked during the survey:

“Next, I’d like to read you the names of some public officials. As I read each one, please just
tell me if you think the job they are doing in office is excellent, good, fair, poor or very
poor.”

EARLY JOB RATINGS FOR ARIZONA GOVERNORS
                                           Excellent/Good    Fair       Poor/Very Poor      (Net Pos to Neg)
Jan Brewer           – Sept 2009     22%              30%                 28%                        (-6)
                           - May 2009      24%             32%                 26%                         (-2)
Janet Napolitano – Oct 2003       46%             30%                 16%                        (+30)
                           -April 2003      49%             24%                 10%                       (+39)
Jane Hull             – Jan 1998        56%             20%                  3%                        (+53)
                           – Oct 1997        45%            20%                  4%                        (+41)

CURRENT READINGS FOR GOVERNOR JAN BREWER
Total population                          22%             20%                 28%                       (-6)
Registered voters only                 24%             28%                 31%                       (-7)
Republicans                                 30%             28%                 27%                       (+3)
Independents                               16%             26%                 38%                      (-22)
Democrats                                   24%             30%                  31%                      (-7)
Maricopa                                      24%             28%                 32%                       (-8)
Pima                                             23%             30%                 19%                       (+4)
Rural                                            18%             34%                 24%                       (-6)

To see the full results of this and other polls by the Behavior Research Center, go to www.brcpolls.com.