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Of polling samples and turnout models

Republicans cried foul this morning when Public Policy Polling released the results of a poll done over the weekend that shows Barber up by 12 points over Kelly in tomorrow’s special CD8 election. Republican operatives and Kelly supporters were quick to pan the poll’s results because it significantly oversampled Dem voters.

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Kelly picked as GOP candidate in CD8

Voters in southern Arizona's 8th Congressional District on Tuesday night chose Republican Jesse Kelly to face former Gabrielle Giffords aide Ron Barber in a special election to replace the wounded ex-congresswoman. Barber and Kelly will face off in the special general election in June, but the two opponents have already started the war of words.

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CD8 hopefuls scramble to catch frontrunner Kelly in shortened timeframe (access required)


Most of the Republican hopefuls in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District started their campaigns with a lot of ground to make up and little time to do it.

When former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords announced her resignation in January, Jesse Kelly, the Republican nominee who narrowly lost to her in 2010, came in as the undisputed GOP frontrunner in the special election to replace her, and there aren’t any signs he has relinquished that mantle.

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