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Waring leads, but many undecideds in CD3

Waring leads, but many undecideds in CD3

A recent poll that showed Jim Waring was leading the pack of contenders in Arizona Congressional District 3, but only 28 percent of those surveyed had decided who they plan to vote for.

Jim Waring, according to the poll, tallied 50 percent of those who had made up their minds. Pamela Gorman was next with about 27 percent.

But Sam Crump, Vernon Parker and others running for the seat shouldn’t be too disappointed, though, because 72 percent of those polled were undecided.

Chris Baker, Pamela Gorman’s consultant, questioned the validity of the poll’s results. He said he was shocked by the lack of undecided potential voters this early in the race.

“I think the validity of the results is extremely suspect and I think that any established pollster who saw those results would come to the same conclusion I did,” Baker said.

Summit Consulting Group conducted the survey between Feb. 9 and 10 in legislative districts 6, 7 and 11. Pollsters conducted interviews with 300 Republicans in the 3rd District who are likely to vote in the primary election. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percent.

The poll question was: “In August, Republican voters will cast their vote for the new Republican nominee from District 3. If the Republican election were held today, who would you vote for?”

Chad Willems, whose group did the survey, is raising money for Waring’s campaign. He said those surveyed were not pushed into picking a candidate; instead, they were asked a straight question.

“I think that whenever a candidate does not have a strong showing in a poll, that the typical response is to attack the poll,” he said. “If Pamela Gorman was leading, I don’t think he (Baker) would be criticizing the results.”

Waring, the Phoenix Republican who resigned his Senate seat to run for Congress, often says he doubts the reliability of polls. In 2008, he was skeptical of surveys that showed that Obama was just a couple of points behind McCain in Arizona. Waring is a former aide to McCain.

Waring said the poll is a snapshot of time, but it gives his campaign some momentum and some cause to be optimistic.

“Is it over? By no means,” he said. “Nobody in my campaign would say that. There’s tons of work to be done.” 
Here are the results of the voters (excluding undecided respondents):

Jim Waring — 50 percent
Pamela Gorman — 26.8 percent
Sam Crump — 8.5 percent
Vernon Parker — 7.3 percent
Debra Brimhall — 2.4 percent
Ed Winkel — 2.4 percent
Paulina Morris — 1.2 percent

-By Luige del Puerto

  1. Brad Steven
    Brad Steven02-16-2010

    This poll is completely worthless.

    First of all, the man in charge of conducting this poll is working for Jim Waring’s campaign, and is a close personal friend. It’s hardly an unbiased poll.

    Secondly, 72% of the poll respondents had not made up their mind! Which means only 14% of the people in this “poll” picked Jim Waring.

    There’s liars, damn liars, and statisticians.

  2. Ed Martin
    Ed Martin02-21-2010

    This race is wide open. In essence Waring is getting 50% of 28% which is 14% of everyone polled.

    To spin it any other way is a disservice to the truth.

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