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Rasmussen: McCain no longer ‘potentially vulnerable’

Rasmussen: McCain no longer ‘potentially vulnerable’

With the GOP primary just a month away, U.S. Sen. John McCain is pulling further away from rival J.D. Hayworth, and Rasmussen Reports is no longer listing the incumbent senator as vulnerable to an upset from his conservative challenger.

A Rasmussen Reports poll released on July 26 showed McCain with a 54-34 lead over Hayworth. Rasmussen conducted the automated push-button telephone poll of 595 likely Republican primary voters on July 21.

Seven percent of respondents said they would vote for another candiate, and 6 percent said they were unsure who they would cast their ballots for in the Aug. 24 primary.

McCain’s leads have varied wildly depending on the poll, with Rasmussen giving him an 11-percent lead in January and the Behavior Research Center showing him up by a whopping 45 points in mid-July. But every poll shows the four-term senator pulling away from his conservative challenger.

Rasmussen, which has conducted the most frequent polling, sporting single-digit leads in March and April but upping his advantage to 12 points in May and 11 points in the company’s last poll in June. Other polling hasn’t been any better for Hayworth, with a Magellan Strategies poll in late June showing McCain with a 13-point lead, and a Rocky Mountain Poll in mid-July showed McCain with a 45-point lead.

While many of Rasmussen’s previous polls described McCain as potentially vulnerable because his support consistently hovered around 50 percent, usually a bad sign for an incumbent. Rasmussen noted that McCain’s approval numbers were similar to those of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who lost in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primary.

But unlike Specter’s challenger, U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, Rasmussen said Hayworth is not gaining any ground on his opponent.

“That comparison no longer works,” Rasmussen wrote of the Hayworth-Specter comparison. “In the Arizona match-up, Hayworth is falling further behind in the final month before the primary.”

McCain is likely reaping the benefits of a direct mail and television advertising blitz. According to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission, McCain spent $15.6 million through the end of June, including $10.1 million in the second quarter of the year alone. Much of the money was transferred from his 2008 presidential bid. Only one U.S. Senate candidate, Connecticut Republican Linda McMahon, has spent more.

  1. Shirley
    Shirley07-26-2010

    JD sealed the deal for voters. We have all been educated on the failures and the shortcomings of JD Hayworth and any informed voter would understand why we cannot allow JD back in Congress. JD falls short on the ethics and morals quality and embodies that with lies, deception and hypocrisy. There is nothing truly conservative about this guy except for a few words he spews out sometimes, words with nothing to back them with…

  2. E Howard Bailey
    E Howard Bailey07-27-2010

    The old RINO threw the election and lied about never supporting amnesty.
    Are AZ people crazy???

  3. rob
    rob07-27-2010

    Was this ever truly a race? I don’t think so.

  4. brendonbaymer
    brendonbaymer07-27-2010

    Thats because Hayworths numbers were inflated to begin with. He has a following of lunatics that were good at lying just like the man himself.

  5. catherinecody02
    catherinecody0207-27-2010

    JD was named to the top ten most crooked candidates list just in the last few days. Great timing thanks to all who worked on that list.

  6. denny
    denny07-27-2010

    Hayworth will soon be out of the public spotlight for good.

    THIS HAS BEEN A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

  7. eveengles
    eveengles07-27-2010

    The problem with comparing McCain to Arlen spector is that McCain did not waste the time of his seat chasing after the sports world like spector did. Thats why he was voted out people were sick of him trying to use his power to help the eagles.

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