Vicious AG primary has Republicans fearing ’98 repeat

The vicious primary between Tom Horne and Andrew Thomas is bringing back bad memories of 1998 and Janet Napolitano for many Republicans.

Horne and Thomas have savaged each other in the GOP primary for attorney general, attacking each other’s credibility and ethics. Some Republicans are worried that the fallout will leave their eventual nominee so badly damaged that the Democrats will win the general election with ease.

Republicans have seen this before.

In 1998, attorney general candidates John Kaites and Tom McGovern waged a brutal campaign characterized by attacks, accusations and insults. McGovern won the nomination, but many Republicans believe Napolitano’s narrow victory in the general election wouldn’t have happened if McGovern hadn’t been so scarred by the primary.

Wes Gullett, a Republican lobbyist with the firm FirstStrategic, says it’s already too late for the GOP to salvage the election.

“There’s no question that the level of discourse between Thomas and Horne is going to allow the Democrats to win,” Gullett said.

“They’re across the brink.”

In their two debates, Horne has blasted Thomas over accusations that he prosecuted political enemies to settle personal vendettas and ongoing federal investigations into abuse of power allegations. Thomas has focused on Horne’s past as a Democrat, calling him soft on abortion and illegal immigration, and more recently has targeted his rival over a lifetime trading ban imposed on him in 1973 by the U.S.

Securities and Exchange Commission.

Both candidates have vowed to endorse the other if they lose the primary, but considering the intensity of their attacks, it may end up sounding like the least sincere endorsement in political history.

Pollster Earl de Berge, of the Behavior Research Center, said the type of negative campaign that Horne and Thomas are waging is a turnoff to voters, much like the Kaites-McGovern race was. De Berge said independent voters, who make up nearly a third of Arizona’s electorate, probably won’t react well to the Republican mudslinging.

“That’s usually what happens … when the candidates just beat the tar out of each other, especially when the accusations are not on policy matters but on matters of personality and honesty and ethics,” de Berge said. “It has a tendency to weaken (voters’) interest in the election.”

Democratic lobbyist Barry Dill, also with FirstStrategic, said the Democratic nominee won’t have to work very hard to make a case against Horne or Thomas. They’ve done it to each other already.

“They’re providing plenty of material, and I can only hope that they keep it up … for another couple months. I don’t see any evidence that they’re going to stop,” Dill said.

While the Republicans do everything in their power to destroy each other, Democratic candidates David Lujan, Vince Rabago and Felecia Rotellini have focused largely on their experience and qualifications for office.

Things have gotten chippy at times — Rotellini and Rabago traded allegations about their backgrounds in the Democrats’ debate as well — but their campaigns have largely been devoid of the personal attacks that have characterized the Republican race.

“If this is a preview of the next two months of campaigning, then whoever comes out on that side is going to be a limping, damaged candidate for November,” Democratic lobbyist David Waid, said of the June 22 Republican debate. “I don’t think there’s anyone who tuned into that, except for the most bitter partisans on either side of that race, who would have said that was a win for one of those two candidates. They both lost.”

More than just the Attorney General’s Office may be at stake if Horne’s and Thomas’ blood feud seals the deal for the Democratic nominee. Napolitano was elected governor in 2002 and became the nemesis whom Repubicans still curse, though she left office in January 2009.

Gullett said it’s hard to guess who will win the Democratic primary but said the best bet is Rotellini, adding one more parallel to 1998.

“The last time we elected a nice Italian girl to attorney general she became governor, so I don’t know,” he said.

Not everyone is as worried as Gullett. Republican lobbyist Stan Barnes said while the Democratic primary probably won’t be as negative as the Republican race, the three candidates will eventually have to turn on each other as well.

“I think that theory is fun political parlor talk and is most believed in Democratic circles. I don’t know how relevant it is to the 2010 election,” Barnes said.