Legislative District 5 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Sylvia Tenney Allen (R)
Snowflake; Real estate agent.
Termed out in 2014.

House
Jack Brown (D)
St. Johns; Rancher, real estate broker.
Termed out in 2012.

Bill Konopnicki (R)
Safford; McDonald’s franchisee,
radio station owner.
Termed out in 2010.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-5 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 50.3 percent Democrat and 49.7 percent Republican, making this – on paper – one of the most competitive districts in the state. The inherent conservatism of voters in the district is revealed in the results of the presidential elections: In 2004 Bush outpolled Kerry 53 percent to 46 percent; in 2008 McCain bested Obama 68 percent to 31 percent.

Napolitano beat Munsil in 2006 but by only 17.6 percentage points, the smallest margin of any district outside Maricopa County. The union-sponsored minimum wage initiative that same year won by a margin of 25.6 percent (only five points smaller than the statewide margin of 30.8 percent).

In the 2008 race for Congress, Democrat Kirkpatrick was competitive with Republican Hay, losing in the district by 1.2 points (825 votes). In contrast, Republican Renzi’s margin of victory was 8.4 percent in 2006 and 22 percent in 2004.

Both versions of the marriage amendment passed overwhelmingly: by 14 points in 2006 and 48 percent in 2008.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Conservative, rural Democrats ruled here for decades, and in local politics, Democrats still are a powerful force. However, the conservatism of Goldwater and then Reagan resonated within the district, and many Democrats have re-registered as Republican. In October 2009, Republicans for the first time achieved a plurality among registered voters. Voters unaffiliated with either major party number one-fifth of registered voters – the smallest percentage of any district. On paper this is one of the most competitive districts in the state.

Since 2002, the district has sent a mixed delegation to the Capitol: two Republicans and one Democrat.

The lone Democrat in the delegation has been Jack Brown, who has been continuously elected to the Legislature since 1989. (He had previously served a 12-year stint, beginning in 1963.)
When Jake Flake, who had represented the district since 1997 (he and Brown used to switch chambers when term limits got in the way) died in 2008, Sylvia Allen was appointed as a replacement. Allen and Brown have battled each other for years. She lost to Brown in 2004 by 348 votes. He once called her “meaner than a boiled owl.” In 2008, after being named to the Senate, she specifically recruited conservative Republican and former Payson Mayor Barbara Brewer to run against Brown, who nevertheless prevailed by slightly more than 1 percent).

Republican Bill Konopnicki is term limited in 2010. He has not announced his intentions. Observers think he will either challenge Allen for the Senate or run for the Republican nomination for Congress in CD-1 and a chance to take on freshman Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick.

In the meantime, three Republicans have filed for the open House seat: Brenda Barton from Safford, Chester Crandall from Heber, and Becky Nutt from Payson. Winslow Democrat Bill Shumway and Globe independent David Rodriguez have also filed.