Legislative District 8 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Carolyn Allen (R)
Scottsdale; former development director for F.L. Wright Foundation.
Termed out in 2010.

House
John Kavanagh (R)
Fountain Hills;
professor of criminal justice at Scottsdale Community College.
Termed out in 2014.

Michele Reagan ( R)
Scottsdale;
former owner of Fast Signs.
Termed out in 2010.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-8 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 64.2 percent Republican and 35.8 percent Democrat. Kerry did marginally better than this in the 2004 presidential election, losing to Bush in the district 60 percent to 40 percent. The Republican advantage continued to erode slightly in the 2008 presidential election, with McCain besting Obama 58.1 percent to 40.5 percent – a margin of 17.6 percentage points.
Despite the district’s Republican leanings, Napolitano outpolled Munsil by almost 24 percentage points in 2006.

Although slightly more than 20,000 registered voters were added to the rolls between 2006 and 2008, the presidential election in 2008 brought out almost 30,000 more voters in the district compared with the gubernatorial election in 2006.

This affluent, well-educated district voted down the marriage amendment both times: In 2006, the more expansive amendment was defeated by almost 10 percentage points; in 2008, the narrower amendment lost by about 1.5 percentage points (1,364 votes).

The entire district lies within the 5th Congressional District. District voters preferred Schweikert to Mitchell for Congress in 2008 by a 7-percent margin.

FINAL ANALYSIS

The only time a Democrat has come close in this district was 2002, when there were two open seats in the House. Former legislative staffer Ginny Chin was single-shotted and came within 661 votes of defeating Colette Rosati. Since then a Democrat has not come within 8,500 votes of being elected in the district.

The two-sided nature of the district is apparent in its electoral history. Although a concern with taxes is always a factor in district elections, LD-8 (and its predecessors in prior years) has elected Carolyn Allen to the Legislature continually since 1994, and she has been described as a fiscal moderate. Chief among her concerns are state funding for the arts and education. She has had primary opposition from the conservative right but has always been victorious. She is term limited in 2010 and has announced that she will retire from the Legislature.

Michele Reagan, first elected along with Rosati in 2004, is considered a fiscal and social moderate. She is also the only Republican in the House to be pro-choice. It is expected that she will announce her intention to replace Allen in the Senate. Republican Michelle Ugenti has already filed for the Senate.
John Kavanagh, first elected in 2006 after a five-way primary, is the other representative. He has been elected on a platform of smaller government, anti-tax fiscal conservatism, anti-illegal immigration and strong law enforcement. He has filed for re-election.

With a GOP voter registration edge of almost two to one over Democrats, and despite Rosati’s close call with Chin in 2002, this district has been considered safely Republican since 2002. However, given the district’s affluence and high education level, Democrats view this district as “in-play” – the Phoenix-area version of southern Arizona’s LD-26, which is also an affluent, well-educated district that may vote for a Democrat if Republican nominees are too far right.

The expected House vacancy has brought out many hopefuls, including Republicans Michael Blaire (pharmacist), Paul LoBianco, Ray Mahoubi (physician), Jim Rich (detention officer), Dennis Robbins, Eric Ulis (producer of poker-themed TV shows) and David Charles Paddison.

Democrat John Kriekard and independent W. John Williamson have also filed committee organization papers.