Legislative District 9 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Bob Burns (R)
Peoria;
small business owner, former software analyst.
Termed out in 2010.

House
Debbie Lesko (R)
Glendale;
self-employed sales.
Termed out in 2016.

Rick Murphy (R)
Glendale;
Realtor.
Termed out in 2012.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-9 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 58.1 percent Republican and 41.9 percent Democrat. Bush did marginally better than that in 2004, defeating Kerry in the district 60 percent to 40 percent. McCain defeated Obama in the district by a similar margin, the eighth-largest margin of any district in the state.

However, Napolitano defeated Munsil in the 2006 gubernatorial election by nearly the same margin. Also the union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was successful in the district, receiving more than 63 percent of the votes, only slightly less than the 65 percent supporting the initiative statewide.

But in presidential year 2008 almost 50 percent more voters cast ballots, and the conservative quality of the district was more apparent. Whereas the more expansive marriage amendment passed in the district by less than 5 percentage points in 2006 (the margin was 2,500 votes), in 2008, the more restrictive marriage amendment passed by almost 19,000 votes or 25 percentage points.
For Congress, Republican Trent Franks defeated Democrat John Thrasher by more than 22 percentage points.

Voters in the district approved the amendment prohibiting illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages by more than 60 percentage points, the fifth-widest margin in the state.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Since 2002, the district has elected only Republicans to the Legislature. The closest a Democrat has come was in the 2006 election for the House when Sheri Van Horsen, who was single-shotted against two incumbent Republicans, came within 751 votes of defeating Rick Murphy. When Van Horsen ran again in 2008, this time with a fellow Democrat challenger, she got 9 percent less of the total vote and trailed Murphy by more than 7,200 votes.

Murphy has filed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat being vacated by Bob Burns, who is term-limited. Democrats are expected to mount a serious challenge, given that Murphy has never led the ticket, coming in second to Bob Stump in 2004 and 2006.

Stump was elected from the district to the House, then the Senate and ultimately served 12 terms in Congress. The Stump who ran in LD-9 in this decade (and is currently a member of the Corporation Commission) is no relation to the icon. In any case, Murphy’s popularity in the district became suspect in 2008 when newcomer Debbie Lesko outpolled him by 1,850 votes.

In Senate races, Burns, who served six terms in the House before running for the Senate in 2002, has never been seriously challenged. Poe came within 4,800 votes in 2006 (9 percentage points) but in 2008, Democrat Price trailed by nearly 8,000 votes (10 points).

Republican Andrew Clark has filed for the Senate, as has veteran Democrat candidate Sheri Van Horsen. The open House seat has attracted a number of candidates, including Republicans Diane Douglas, Sun City resident Rick Gray, and Nathaniel Martin.

Illegal immigration and lower taxes have been most often mentioned as important issues in the district.