Legislative District 11 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Barbara Leff (R)
Paradise Valley;
former volunteer for Russian resettlement program.
Termed out in 2010.

House
Adam Driggs (R)
Paradise Valley;
attorney, owner Express One Shipping.
Termed out in 2014.

Eric Meyer (D)
Paradise Valley;
retired physician.
Termed out in 2016.

VOTING ANALYSIS

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-11 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was nearly 60 percent Republican to 40 percent Democrat. That 20-point gap narrowed to 10 points in the 2004 election with Bush defeating Kerry 54.7 percent to 44.7 percent. In 2008, Obama not only narrowed that gap a bit further but also fared slightly better in the district than he did statewide, falling to McCain by 6.6 percent (the margin for the state was 8.6 percent.

In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano almost doubled up on Munsil, defeating him by a margin of nearly 2-to-1.

The more expansive, 2006 marriage amendment was rejected by district voters by a 6-to-4 margin. In 2008, with a turnout increase of more than 30 percent, the narrower marriage amendment was defeated in the district by more than 10 percentage points (9,236 votes).

The union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was approved by a nearly 20-percent margin. The district approved the constitutional amendment prohibiting illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages, but the margin of victory was in the lower third of all districts.

In the three congressional districts in LD-11, incumbents were each favored by double-digit margins. Shadegg over Lord by 10.3 percentage points, Pastor over Karg by nearly 30 points, and Mitchell over Schweikert by more than 20 points.

FINAL ANALYSIS

This district has changed political orientation as much as any in the state since being created in 2002. In that year, top Democrat vote-getter, Sam Wercinski – later appointed real estate commissioner by Gov. Napolitano – trailed Republican Steve Tully by almost 8 percentage points (7,500 votes). In 2004 House Republican incumbents ran unopposed in the general election.

However, several factors converged in 2006 to result in Democrat Mark Desimone being elected to the House: a decline in Republican registration, no Republican incumbents on the general election ballot and Democrats running only a single candidate. The decline in GOP enrollment continued. In 2008 even though Desimone resigned from the Legislature in the spring and declined to run for re-election (he had been arrested for domestic violence), Democrats were successful in mounting a write-in campaign for Eric Meyer in the primary. In the general election, Meyer defeated Republican Jon Altmann by more than 2,000 votes (1.7 percent). He came within 325 votes of Republican Adam Driggs.

Senate races, where the strategy of single-shotting a candidate is not available, have continued to show Republican dominance. In 2002, Barbara Leff, a three-term representative, defeated incumbent Sen. Sue Gerard by 60 votes (the margin was about three-tenths of 1 percent of the votes cast). Leff has not been seriously challenged since. Her closest race was in 2006 when she bested Democrat Ann Wallack by more than 9 percentage points.

Leff is term-limited in 2010, and House GOP incumbent Adam Driggs has indicated he is considering running for the Senate. As of Oct. 1, only Republicans Allen Harlan and Rich Davis have filed committee organization papers. For the House only Meyer and Republican Jon Altmann have filed.

Voter concerns in the district often center on fiscal issues and education.