Legislative District 12 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
John Nelson (R)
Litchfield Park;
civil engineer; former Phoenix councilman.
Termed out in 2016.

House
Steve Montenegro (R)
Litchfield Park;
staffer for Congressman Trent Franks.
Termed out in 2016.

Jerry Weiers (R)
Glendale;
owner of Weiers Trailer Sales.
Termed out in 2012.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-12 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district favored Republicans, 54 percent to 46 percent. Bush outperformed in 2004, defeating Kerry in the district by 18 percentage points (59 percent to 41 percent).

In 2008, Obama did not recover all the lost ground, losing to McCain by 10 percentage points (54 percent to 44 percent). However, in three of the four congressional districts within LD-12, the Democratic candidates outpolled their Repub-lican opponents: Lord over Shadegg by a scant 9 votes, Pastor and Grijalva decisively over their challengers, Karg and Sweeney, respectively. The largest part of LD-12 lies in the 1st Congressional District where Franks defeated Thrasher by 14 percentage points, which is less than the 22 percentage point margin by which he was re-elected.
In the 2006 gubernatorial race, Napolitano bested Munsil by nearly 20 percentage points.

The more expansive 2006 marriage amendment passed in the district by five percentage points with slightly more than 56,000 vote cast. In 2008 and with 105,000 votes cast, the narrower amendment passed handily by more than 21 percentage points.

The union-sponsored minimum wage amendment in 2006 passed in the district by nearly 31 percentage points, a margin approaching two to one.

FINAL ANALYSIS

In 2002, the differential between Republican and Democrat registration was 8 percent, making it very close to being considered competitive – a designation that required a difference of no more than 7 percent. Yet the electoral history of the district since 2002 shows that, with the exception of 2008, Democrats have not gotten much traction in the district. Kerry and Obama both lost by double-digit margins, and Republicans have won legislative races generally by a minimum of 8 percent. In 2006, against three Republican incumbents, Democrats did not even field candidates for either the House or Senate, The situation changed somewhat in 2008 when Rep. John Nelson was termed out and persuaded Sen. Robert Blendu to relinquish his seat there two years before he reached the limit of his term so that Nelson could run for the upper chamber. Thus, technically, there were two open seats in a year in which the Republican brand was seen to be tarnished. Democrats felt they fielded strong candidates, and, after Blendu lost in the primary, the stage seemed to be primed for an upset.

But the district once again elected only Republicans. Some have said that the presence of Green Party candidate Celeste Castorena for the House (one of only two Green candidates statewide) took just enough votes from the Democrats to ensure that Montenegro was elected over Nuñez. Other observers said Democrats over-reached by fielding two candidates for the House; had Nuñez been single-shotted, she might have won.

As of December 2009, Jerry Weiers and Montenegro have filed for re-election. Democrat Angela Cotera has also filed for the House.

Issues related to Luke AFB (including development) and military personnel in general are important in the district.