Legislative District 17 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Meg Burton-Cahill (D)
Tempe;
ceramic artist.
Termed out in 2014.

House
Ed Ableser (D)
Tempe;
mental health counselor, ASU faculty associate.
Termed out in 2014.

David Schapira (D)
Tempe;
small business owner (consulting), ASU faculty associate.
Termed out in 2014.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-17 in 2002, the difference in the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was less than 1 percent (50.4 per-cent Democrat vs. 49.6 percent Republican). But the district has trended more to the left in the last seven years. Kerry beat Bush in the district by more than 10 percentage points in the 2004 presidential election. Obama outpolled McCain in 2008 by more than 15 points. In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano defeated Munsil by 42 percentage points.

Both marriage amendments failed: In 2006 the more expansive version failed by 24 percentage points; in 2008, the narrower version failed by 16 points.

The union-sponsored minimum wage initiative passed in 2006 by a margin of 36 percentage points, greater than the statewide results of 31 percentage points.

This district includes virtually all of the city of Tempe; thus, it is no surprise that in both the 2006 and 2008 elections for the 5th Congressional District, it overwhelmingly favored Democrat Harry Mitchell – a popular former mayor who also represented the district in the Legislature between 1999 and 2006. Mitchell beat incumbent J.D. Hayworth in 2006 by four points in 2006 and challenger David Schweikert by 32 points in 2008.

FINAL ANALYSIS

This district was arguably one of the most competitive districts in the state when lines were drawn in 2002. However, the voting characteristics of this district have shifted in recent years to favor Democrats. Republican registration continues to slip, and Democrats have continued to expand their plurality in voter registration, although it still stands at less than 40 percent.

The number of registered voters not affiliated with either major party now exceeds the number of Republicans. The balance of political power in the district clearly lies with third parties, independents and the unaffiliated.

Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill has announced she will not seek re-election in 2010. Rep. David Schapira has filed an exploratory committee for the Senate. Republican Wendy Rogers has also filed.
For the resulting vacant House seat, Tempe Councilman Ben Arredondo has changed registration from Republican to Democrat and filed committee organization forms to run this year. Ableser is seeking re-election, and Republican Augustus Shaw has filed to challenge.

Major issues in the district deal with ASU – its growth and its budget. Also to the extent college students register and vote, issues that appeal to young voters may find significant levels of support.