Legislative District 20 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
John Huppenthal (R)
Chandler;
senior planning analyst with SRP.
Termed out in 2012.

House
John McComish (R)
Ahwatukee;
former president of the Ahwatukee Chamber of Commerce.
Termed out in 2012.

Rae Waters (D)
Phoenix;
community columnist for The Arizona Republic.
Termed out in 2016.

VOTING HISTORY

The political characteristics of this fast-growing district have changed considerably since 2002 when the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries. In that year registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by almost 20 percentage points. The historical partisan voting pattern of voters in the district was nearly as great, with Republicans generally garnering 60 percent of the vote to 40 percent for Democrats.

In the 2004 presidential race, Bush improved on this advantage, beating Kerry by 63 percent to 36 percent. However, the trend to the center was noticeable in 2006 when Napolitano defeated Munsil in the district by slightly more than 2-to-1. In 2008, Obama lost to McCain in the district by only 2.5 percentage points (2.163 votes).

Also in 2008, the main part of the district favored Harry Mitchell over David Schweikert for the 5th Congressional District by a margin of 14.2 percentage points. The smaller parts of the district in the 4th and 6th Congressional districts favored Democrat Ed Pastor over Republican Don Karg by more than 20 percentage points in the former and Republican Jeff Flake over Democrat Rebecca Schneider in the latter. However, Flake’s margin of 11.7 percentage points in LD-20 was much less than his total margin of victory, which approached 28 points.

This district delivered the sixth largest margin of defeat for the 2006 marriage amendment. It was also one of two Republican districts in the state (and seven districts overall) to vote down the narrower marriage amendment in 2008. (District 11 was the other Republican district.)

FINAL ANALYSIS

This was a safe Republican district in 2002. However, it has moved decidedly to the center since then. The Republican registration advantage of 20 percentage points when the district was formed has shrunk to slightly more than 8 points today. And the balance of power in this district (as in many others statewide) lies with those unaffiliated with either major party.

Slade Mead, a fiscally moderate Republican, was elected to the Senate in 2002. In 2004, long-time lawmaker John Huppenthal, a fiscally conservative Republican who was not termed-out in the House, decided to challenge Mead in the primary and easily defeated him. Thus, while social issues such as abortion and gay marriage may not dominate the district in the same way that they dominate nearby districts 18 and 19, fiscal conservatism resonates strongly within the district.The transition from safe Republican district to a district “in play” was secured in 2008 when Democrat Rae Waters defeated Republican Jeff Dial for a House seat.

Waters’ election, the first of a Democrat to the Legislature from the district, exemplifies another issue that is important to district voters: K-12 education. Waters had been a member of the Kyrene School District since 1998, and her better name recognition and knowledge of education issues were instrumental in her success.