Legislative District 25 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Manuel Alvarez (D)
Elfrida;
farmer/rancher, former manager of the Bisbee office of DES.
Termed out in 2016.

House
Pat Fleming (D)
Sierra Vista;
retired civilian employee of the U.S. Army.
Termed out in 2016.

David Stevens (R)
Sierra Vista;
civilian contractor with U.S. Dept. of Defense.
Termed out in 2016.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-25 in 2002, the historical voting pattern in the district was 57.5 percent Democrat and 42.5 percent Republican. However, the conservative bent of Democrats in the district is clearly visible in the results of both recent presidential elections. In 2004, Bush outpolled Kerry by five points: 52 percent to 47 percent. In 2008, McCain defeated Obama by nearly seven points (52.7 percent to 45.9 percent). However, in the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano beat Munsil by 32 points (64.9 percent to 32.7 percent).

District voters approved both versions of the marriage amendment. In 2006, the more expansive version received almost 52 percent of the vote. In 2008, with 45 percent more votes cast than two years prior, the more narrowly worded version received 60.5 percent.

In both the 7th and 8th congressional districts – the two congressional districts of which LD-25 is a part – voters favored Democrats last year.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Although Democrats in this district currently enjoy a nine-point registration advantage over Republicans, their advantage has shrunk by one-fifth (10 points) since the district was formed in 2002. Meanwhile, Republicans have registered only a modest gain (1.3 percentage points) over the same period. The result is that voters unaffiliated with either major party hold the balance of power, and many of those voters seem unimpressed by extremists from either party. The district has sent a mixed delegation to the Legislature since 2002. Moderate Republican Jennifer Burns was elected to the House in the first three elections of this decade.

In 2008, all three seats were vacant. Democrat Rep. Manny Alvarez took the Senate seat. Democrat Pat Fleming and Republican David Stevens (in his third try) were elected to the House.
Mining, once a booming industry in Cochise County, has fallen on hard times. A decline in mining employment gen-erally means a decline in the number of Democratic voters.

At the same time, as the Army’s Fort Huachuca has continued to expand, the military (identified as “government” under employment industry in the demographics table) has become a major employer in the district.

Economic development issues are important here, but the most important issue is the border. Part of the electorate favors strong border interdiction programs to keep people from crossing illegally. Another part of the electorate is sensitive to the economic consequences of those efforts.