Legislative District 30 Voting History

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CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Frank Antenori (R) (appointed)

House
Ted Vogt (R) (appointed)
Tucson;
program manager for Raytheon Advanced Systems.
Termed out in 2016.

David Gowan (R)
Sierra Vista;
sales representative for ProLogics.
Termed out in 2016.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-30 in 2002, the historical voting pattern in the district was 58 percent Republican and 42 percent Democrat. This pattern held in the 2004 presidential election with Bush getting 58 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 41 percent. It also was predictive of the results of the 2008 presidential election as McCain secured 56.7 percent of the vote to Obama’s 42.1 percent.

In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano defeated Munsil in the district by nearly 25 percentage points, slightly less than her margin of victory statewide (27.2 percent).

In 2006 and 2008, the two versions of the marriage amendment nearly mirrored statewide results as well. The more expansive version in 2006 was defeated in the district by 5 points (the margin statewide was 4 points).

In 2008, the narrower version was favored in the district by 8.6 percentage points; statewide its margin of victory was 12.4 percentage points.

The union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was successful in the district by 29 percentage points; statewide its margin of victory was 30.8 points.

Virtually the entire district lies in the 8th Congressional District. In the district, Democrat Gabrielle Giffords edged Republican Tim Bee by less than 2 points.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Republicans have lost nearly 6 percentage points of their voter registration advantage in the last six years but still hold a 12-point lead over Democrats. The district has elected only Republicans to the Legislature since 2002. But with only 42 percent of the district’s registered voters now affiliated with the GOP, this district may be somewhat competitive. In the CD-8 election of 2006, the district rejected the hard-line position against illegal immigration as expressed by former Rep. Randy Graf and favored Gabrielle Giffords. In the 2008 election, moderate Republican and then-Senate President Tim Bee was more competitive in the district than Graf had been, but he still lost to Giffords.

In 2008, Rep. Jonathan Paton made a successful bid for Bee’s Senate seat.

In each of the last two elections, Democrats have tried to single-shot a candidate for the House, but the closest they came was in 2008 when both House seats were vacant, and Delassandro polled within 5,300 votes (3.4 percentage points) of capturing a seat. In that election, David Gowan was successful in his third try for the Legislature. His seatmate, Frank Antenori, ran his first campaign for elective office.

A growing retirement age population (in areas such as Green Valley) means fiscal issues are a top priority in the district. The proximity to the Mexican border makes illegal immigration an important issue. The district has the highest percentage of veterans in its voting age population of any in the state (22.2 percent); and military service is generally seen as an advantage in this district.