Arizona Capitol Times Election Coverage Your Inside Track to Arizona Elections
Based on the preliminary results of the Aug. 24 primary election, the Arizona House of Representatives isn’t shaping up to be much changed from the past two years. There will be new faces, but philosophically, the chamber’s motto might be, “More of the same.”
“I’ve always looked at the House Republican caucus as a core of business conservatives with some social conservatives on the outside edges. I don’t see it any differently now,” said lobbyist Marc Osborn, who represents the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
But Rep. Chad Campbell, a Phoenix Democrat who is widely expected to be elected to lead the caucus for the next two years, said he believes the chamber took a turn to the right.
“Unless some seats swap between Democrats and Republicans (in November), you’re going to see a more conservative caucus on the Republican side, which I didn’t think was possible,” he said.
Campbell pointed to victories by Michelle Ugenti in LD8 and Steve Urie in LD22 as examples. Ugenti ran on a tea-party platform and replaces Michele Reagan, a more centrist Republican who is running for the Senate. Urie, meanwhile, defeated Rep. Laurin Hendrix, and Campbell said he believes the newcomer will be more ideologically rigid than Hendrix.
On top of that, Campbell said the Republican caucus lost more moderate members like Bill Konopnicki in Legislative District 5 and Adam Driggs in Legislative District 11, both of whom ran for the Senate. Driggs won, but Konopnicki didn’t.
Most outside observers differ with Campbell’s assessment, however. Veteran lobbyist Barry Aarons, who has worked at the Capitol since the 1970s, said there seemed to be a balance in terms of who left the chamber and who appears likely to join in January.
“I can show you just as many primary elections that tack to the right as tack to the center,” he said.
For example, Aarons said that while Ugenti appears to be more conservative than Reagan, voters chose Amanda Reeve to permanently replace Sam Crump. The centrist Reeve was appointed to replace the very conservative Crump in February, when he resigned to run for Congress.
Likewise, Tim Schmaltz, CEO of the Protecting Arizona’s Family Coalition, said the House Republican caucus appears unchanged overall.
“The chamber will still be heavily controlled by Republicans. It will probably be as conservative as it was (this term),” he said.
One thing that was made clear in the primary is that Rep. Kirk Adams is almost certain to be elected to a second term as speaker of the House, said Arizona Association of Realtors CEO Tom Farley.
“I don’t see his votes being in trouble at all based on what happened,” Farley said.
With Adams likely to remain at the helm and GOP caucus Whip Andy Tobin the only candidate for majority leader, the continuity in leadership is a sign that things won’t be wildly different next year, Schmaltz said.
While there may not be a sea change in terms of the chamber’s priorities or political philosophy, there will still be major changes. With 24 of the body’s members either forced from office because of term limits, retiring or seeking other elected offices — plus the three incumbents who were defeated in the primary — the House will feature many new faces.
In the Republican caucus, a lot of those faces will be younger, as a spate of thirty-somethings received their party’s nomination. In Legislative District 30, 37-year-old Ted Vogt was elected to the seat he held after being appointed to succeed 44-year-old Frank Antenori, whom he replaced in March after Antenori was appointed to the Senate.
Likewise, Kimberly Yee, 36, was chosen over Doug Quelland, 62, in Legislative District 10.
Voters in Legislative District 19 chose 31-year-old Justin Olson to replace departing Rich Crandall, who was 42.
Other young Republicans elected include: Jeff Dial, 34, in Legislative District 20; Tom Forese, 36, and J.D. Mesnard, 30, in Legislative District 21; Reeve, 33, in Legislative District 6; and Ugenti, 30, in Legislative District 8.
“I used to be one of the youngest around here. I’m not anymore,” said Adams, who is 37, but was 33 when he was appointed to the House in 2006.