Rios dynasty threatened amid tough GOP challenge

Sen. Rebecca Rios (Photo by Josh Coddington)

The Rios family has represented Pinal County in the Arizona Legislature for the past three decades, establishing a Democratic dynasty that has withstood numerous challenges over the years.

But this year a Republican with Tea Party leanings has rousted a surprising level of support in a district that has been a Democratic stronghold ever since the lines were drawn.

Steve Smith, a 34-year-old director of a Phoenix-based talent agency, is relying on voter discontent with established politicians in his bid to unseat Sen. Rebecca Rios in Legislative District 23.

“I think people are tired of long-term incumbents and career politicians to start with on both sides,” he said.

Political insiders began taking Smith seriously as a candidate after his strong showing in the Aug. 24 primary, when he actually received more votes than Rios – 11,719 compared to her 11,434 – in his party’s two-way contest.

Endorsements from immigration hawks Sen. Russell Pearce and Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio also have boosted Smith’s profile, giving at least a glimmer of hope to Republicans that the seat may be in play.

Lobbyist Stan Barnes, a former Republican legislator, said there is a chance to defeat Rios, but her challenger faces an uphill battle.

The Senate race is happening right at the “tipping point” of Pinal County, where the majority of LD23 voters come from, changing its voter-registration majority to Republican from being historically Democratic, Barnes said.

“(But) the challenger has got an uphill battle because the Rios political brand in Pinal County is three decades in the making and is as well-known and positive as exists anywhere in any legislative district in Arizona,” he said. “But having said that, everyone anticipates this is a remarkable year where changes are in the air and so anything can happen.”

Smith’s biggest weapon might be the fact that he’s running in a district with a competitive voter-make up in a year that supposedly leans Republican.

“I think that it’s remarkable that a newcomer like Steve Smith is competitive with Rebecca Rios to be real honest with you,” said Rep. Frank Pratt, a Republican who represents Legislative District 23 and is also seeking reelection.

Smith probably would not have not stood a chance if he ran for the seat six years ago, when Rios was first elected unopposed to the Senate. But rapid population growth and a steady trend of voters registering as independents have changed the political makeup in the district since then.

Democrats hold a 5-point voter-registration advantage over Republicans in District 23, but that pales in comparison to the 17-point gap between the two parties in 2004.

The shift was due mostly to the rise in independent voters, whose ranks have swelled by 32,000 since 2004 – twice the number of new Democratic voters and nearly 11,000 more than new Republican voters.

The district’s increasingly competitive voter make-up, an energized GOP base and a tide of anti-establishment sentiment are likely to make the race more competitive, but political consultants are split on whether the race is really winnable for Smith.

Smith and Rios both chose to run with Clean Election money, so neither candidate has a campaign fundraising advantage. But that equality may complicate matters for Smith because he faces the dual challenges of gaining the trust of voters and convincing them to shake any loyalty to the Rios clan.

Rios served in the state House from 1995 until 2001 and was first elected to the state Senate in 2005. She served for several years alongside her father, Pete Rios, who was a lawmaker for 24 years until he left the Legislature in 2008 to run for a seat on the Pinal County Board of Supervisors.

Republican political consultant Chuck Coughlin said trying to unseat Rios will be particularly difficult due to her family’s deep roots in Pinal County politics.

“Once they have a history of voting for you, you almost have to betray that history – betray that relationship – to have them vote against you,” Coughlin said. “And voters have to be convinced that you’ve left them.”

Coughlin doesn’t sense that Rios has broken that relationship, but that’s the message Smith is sending. He has criticized Rios for missing votes on the Senate floor, for her opposition to Arizona’s new immigration law and her positions on fiscal policy.

“I think that our district has been… so grossly misrepresented over the years,” he said.

Smith portrays himself as a Tea Party candidate and blames undocumented immigrants for the state’s budget woes. He said if elected, his primary goal would be to “stop all state funding of illegal aliens.”

Like many other Tea Party candidates, he is a populist. He supports SB1070, opposes raising taxes and rejects the federal health care overhaul.

Rios, though, shrugged off Smith as a single-issue candidate who has no plans and no ideas. She called him “Sound Bite Steve.”

“The flame is short,” she said. “He’s got to ride this S1070 because it’s going to burn out and people will realize he’s got no substance.”

Rios, a social worker by background, is an ardent supporter of public education and a strong backer of women’s rights. Yet she has also supported some measures introduced by Republicans, including bills that have eased restrictions on gun owners.

She is expected to become the Senate minority leader next year, assuming she gets reelected this November.

Rios said she missed 63 votes during the 2010 legislative session mostly because she was advocating for job-creation policies in Washington D.C.

Green Party candidate Matthew Shusta is also running for the Senate in District 23.

District 23 Breakdown
Legislative District 23 is located in central Arizona and includes parts of Maricopa Country and most of Pinal County. Independent voters make up the largest segment of the voting bloc.
Democrats: 51,447
Republicans: 44,759
Independents: 51,540
Total registered voters: 148,854