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Experts: elections seem more legitimate when you win

Key Points:
  • State election integrity polls high among Republicans and Democrats
  • Independent voters have grown more skeptical due to distrust of Trump
  • Republican lawmakers still push reforms of election system

Republicans and Democrats appear to have reached some common ground on election integrity.

Voters in both parties have expressed a high level of confidence in the state’s elections, with Republicans reporting 77% confidence in election fairness and Democrats registering at 75%, according to a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights. In July 2021, only 40% of Republicans expressed confidence in election fairness.

According to the poll, 70% of voters currently express trust in the fairness of upcoming elections.

The overall confidence of Arizona voters has increased by 12 points since July 2021, when officials conducted the Maricopa County audit in response to President Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud.

However, independent voters have emerged as the most skeptical toward trusting elections with only 58% showing confidence in election fairness, the poll found.

The poll also found that independent voters distrust Trump and are disenchanted with the partisan disagreements over gerrymandering, which has led to wariness of both parties.

The poll also highlighted that the majority of voters in both parties want to either improve access to mail-in voting or maintain the current system.

The results are based on 948 responses from registered voters in Arizona between Aug. 11 and Aug. 18.

“Mail-in voting has become normalized in Arizona,” said Noble Predictive Insights Founder & CEO Mike Noble in a statement. “While Trump can still stir up skepticism, even among Republicans, there’s no longer a broad base demanding rollbacks. Most voters are ready to move on and keep the system stable.”

The increased confidence in election integrity from Arizona voters, especially Republicans, is likely tied to the results of the 2024 election.

“I think it’s a lot easier to accept the results when your guy wins. And so I think it’s as simple as it gets,” said GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin. “The president’s rhetoric has died down on this.”

Last November, Trump won the presidency while Republicans expanded their majority in both legislative chambers after winning in a number of swing districts.

GOP consultant Barrett Marson agreed that Trump’s win, along with other Republican victories, likely contributed to the increased voter confidence among Republicans.

“The polls showed Trump was up by a few points, and he won by right around what the polls were showing,” Marson said. “People of all parties saw that voting here is safe and secure.”

In a video posted on X, Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes credited county recorders, supervisors and election officials across the state for working to implement transparency, accountability and access for the state’s voters.

“We know the truth is that folks really believe in each other and our elections in Arizona,” he said. “Now, all we have to do is make sure that everybody else comes along, but I’m confident the fog is lifting because at the end of the day, the truth will prevail.”

Democrats have maintained that the state’s elections have been safe, secure and fair for years, regardless of who wins at the top of the ticket, said Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan, D-Tucson.

The polling results also demonstrate that any election reforms that could potentially disenfranchise voters are unnecessary, Sundareshan said.

“Regardless of the election outcome, I think voters should be and remain confident that, not just the most recent elections, but elections in prior years have been conducted with integrity,” she said.

Although the election fraud claims have subsided, Republicans have continued to advocate for reform of the state’s election system by introducing legislation last session that would expedite the results on election night.

The bills would have changed the deadlines for early ballot drop off, required voters to update their names on the Active Early Voting List within a specific timeframe, and allowed schools to be used as polling places.

Another would’ve banned voting centers.

Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed those bills due to concerns about restricting access to voting. Democrats agreed and routinely voted against the legislation in committees and on the House and Senate floors.

Although this issue differs from the election fraud claims, Republican lawmakers still viewed the slow election results as another potential reason for voters to lose confidence in the election process. 

Senate President Warren Petersen, R-Gilbert, said he plans to work with his Republican colleagues to pursue more election reforms, although he is pleased to see voters expressing more confidence in the state’s election system.

“Glad to see confidence increase but we still have a lot of work to do,” Petersen said in a text message.  “Hobbs has vetoed a pile of bills.”

Kari Lake still deciding whether to debate

Democrat Ruben Gallego is all in on holding a Clean Elections debate with his challenger in the race for an open U.S. Senate seat. Republican Kari Lake, maybe not so much.

On Friday, Gallego’s campaign told the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission, which holds candidate debates that are widely viewed across the state, that he’s prepared to participate under their standard format. But Lake’s campaign has been hesitant to agree, although a campaign spokesman said they are in ongoing “productive conversations” about a Clean Elections debate.

The state commission initially asked all candidates to respond by Friday to scheduling requests. That deadline, however, wasn’t a hard one. And the commission, at the behest of Lake – who has declined to commit so far one way or the other – agreed to give her another week to make up her mind.

What makes Lake’s balking significant is it comes just two years after a dust up when Democrat Katie Hobbs, her foe in the gubernatorial race, refused to face off against her. Arizona PBS, which was hosting the Clean Elections debates at the time, responded by giving Lake what amounted to a half-hour interview.

But the situation was exacerbated by the decision of the station to give Hobbs her own half-hour interview despite her refusal to abide by Clean Elections rules.

That decision, however, was not made by Clean Elections. And the commission in response quickly ended its long-running partnership with PBS to air its debates.

Lake spent much of the remainder of the campaign slamming Hobbs, who eventually pulled out a slim victory, for refusing to debate. For her part, Hobbs’ campaign said any debate with Lake would be a “spectacle.”

This year, Clean Elections announced a new partnership to produce, air and distribute their debates through the Arizona Media Association. Debates were simulcast on multiple television stations before July’s primary election and general election debates will also air statewide on multiple outlets.

Now, however, the shoe is on the other foot for Lake, and she’s apparently not rushing.

Gallego, for his part, is taking full advantage of her failure to decide, saying he is looking forward to participating in the Clean Elections debate “in keeping with Arizona tradition.”

“I believe Arizonans deserve to hear firsthand about the choice in this election between a Marine combat veteran with a lifetime of service and someone who is only in this race for herself,” he said in a prepared statement. “I will spend the next 80 days laser-focused on bringing Arizonans across the political spectrum together to build a better Arizona.”

In a U.S. Senate race that has already seen millions of dollars in television advertising with much more to come, a debate would be the only chance for voters – both undecided and those already committed to a candidate – to see them lay out policy and display their personalities in a side-by-side faceoff. And the result of the election could determine which party controls the Senate.

Gallego’s announcement is not a surprise.

Before Friday, he had publicly said he’s ready to participate in a Clean Elections debate with Lake. But so far Lake’s only public comments since the primary have made it clear she’s still upset with the commission, even though the decision to give time to Hobbs was not the panel’s doing.

She told NBC News earlier this month that she wants to find “a fair place, a fair platform to do that.”

Not doing a debate is politically risky for Lake, who is trailing big in fundraising and behind in all non-partisan polls. A poll sponsored by Republicans and released this week showed the race even, while one released early this month by HighGround, an Arizona consulting and polling firm not affiliated with either campaign, showed Gallego up by 11 percentage points. 

“I think it would be a missed opportunity for Kari Lake to not engage Ruben in a debate,” said Mike Noble, who runs a different Phoenix-based political polling firm.

“He has four times the amount of cash on hand,” Noble said.

“He has the better image right now among the electorate,” he continued “And he has the advantage of polling. Based on these factors, why would she not debate?”

Noble said it would be a “big win for Ruben if Kari doesn’t debate.”

And Stan Barnes, a Republican political consultant and lobbyist, said if Lake refuses to debate, it would be “a head scratcher to me.”

Barnes noted that Lake was well ahead of her primary challenger, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, in both money and refused to debate him. 

“Typically, you don’t debate if you have the advantage,” Barnes said, “Now she’s in the juxtaposed position and she’s not going to debate?”

Whether Lake agrees or not, Gallego will get a chance to use that air time under rules adopted by the Citizens Clean Election Commission, a public board that is required by law to oversee pre-election debates.

Skipping a Clean Elections debate would have been highly unusual before 2022.

The voter-created commission, which funds candidates that agree to forego private campaign funding, oversees many campaign finance rules and does voter outreach, including the debates, has done them for two decades and most major candidates signed on.

But starting in recent years, debates became easier for candidates to skip in Arizona and across the country. Some Republicans were just avoiding mainstream media events and some Democrats like Hobbs pointed to issues with GOP candidates, as she did.  

 

 

Tight races could leave Senate equally divided

With Democrats aiming to flip the Legislature and Republicans defending their slim majority, consultants said the Senate could see an equally split chamber for the first time since 2000. 

The 2022 legislative districting map has brought up highly competitive general races in key districts – and similar campaign strategies. 

Democrats are vying for the majority after more than 20 years of Republican control. The GOP majority has slimmed in the past 10 years, but Republican candidates championed a two-seat lead in both the House and Senate in the 2022 general election. 

With most primary election results called, GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said the Senate could see an equally split chamber for the first time since 2000. 

As it stands, the chamber is led by Republicans with a 16-14 majority and Democratic campaigns are applying pressure to every legislative district that could sway blue.

The minority party is running heavily-funded candidates for Senate seats in six close competitive districts. Campaigns on both sides of the aisle are encouraging voters in highly contentious districts to reject their opposing general election candidate for being too “extreme” for the area they seek to represent. 

In the Republican-leaning Legislative District 17, former lawmaker Vince Leach ousted incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack in the GOP primary. Leach is a less controversial general election candidate than Wadsack, Coughlin said, thus reducing the tightness of the race for Democrat candidates. 

“There are other races that, at this juncture, look less competitive,” Coughlin said. “I forecast 15-15 right now.”

Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, also said that primary results forecast a tighter battle for the majority. 

“Pre-primary there was a decent shot, however, post-primary I’d say the field goal just got moved to the 50-yard line – not impossible, but a challenge,” Noble said of Democrats winning a tie in the chamber. 

Though Leach is viewed as a less beatable candidate to some, the Arizona Democratic legislative campaign committee said in a written statement that he is “one of the most extreme legislators in his party and consistently prioritized special interests over his constituents.” John McLean, a businessman, is Leach’s Democratic competition. 

The Democratic committee has undertaken a similar tactic at battleground districts across the state, urging voters to side with the less “extreme” candidate, but most of their target districts lean slightly Republican.  

Noble and Coughlin both said a tie in the chamber could come down to Legislative District 2. The district, which encompasses northern Phoenix, is highly competitive and leans very slightly in favor of Republican candidates, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Sen. Shawnna Bolick is the GOP incumbent of LD2. She beat her primary opponent, Josh Barnett, by about 7% of votes.  Coughlin said the Senate seat is shaping up to be “Democrats’ number one pickup opportunity,” where the party is running Rep. Judy Schwiebert.

Democrat political action committees from in and out of state have funneled thousands into Schwiebert’s campaign effort. Bolick had $164,386 on hand, according to pre-primary finance reports, while Schwiebert led by nearly double with $327,518 on hand. 

The Republican Arizona Senate Victory Fund PAC announced their own version of the “reject extremism” campaign strategy on Aug. 6, which specifically targets Legislative District 4. The slightly-GOP district is represented in the Senate by Democrat incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, who they dubbed “Extreme Christine.” 

The “Extreme Christine” campaign website took a similar strategy to ADLCC by telling voters to “send extreme Christine home” and lists her voting record on issues like immigration, school choice and taxes. 

The only time a chamber has been tied in Arizona was in the Senate from 2001 to 2002. Republicans lost control of their majority during the 2000 general election. 

At the time, Democratic lawmakers negotiated with former Sen. Randall Gnant, a Republican, and convinced him to be the president of the chamber on the condition that committees be split. 

Former state Sen. Pete Rios, a Democrat, said in a 2011 interview with the Arizona Memory Project that Gnant was their first choice because he seemed “moderate enough for Democrats to work with.” 

Rios recalled the dinner where Democrats convinced Gnant to lead the chamber: “I said, ‘Randall, if you say you’re going to do it, you’re going to do it, and we’re not leaving here until we sign this thing in blood. Once we leave here, you’re going to be president, you’re going to take a lot of heat, your people are going to call you every name in the book like God’s child, so you better be ready.’ He said, ‘I know it, I know it.’”

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