Major races impacted by matching funds ruling

Governor

No race will see a greater impact from the matching funds ruling than the campaign for governor. Incumbent Gov. Jan Brewer and state Treasurer Dean Martin are both running publicly funded campaigns for the GOP nomination, and they are facing businessman Buz Mills, whose self-funded campaign has already spent $2.3 million. Instead of the $2.1 million they would’ve gotten from Clean Elections, both will have to make do with just $707,447 instead.

Though both Martin and Brewer are affected by the ruling, Martin seems to have taken the biggest hit. Brewer’s poll numbers have shot up over the past couple months and she can use her bully pulpit in lieu of advertising. Martin’s campaign has already gotten off to a slow start, and he still hasn’t turned in the 4,410 $5 contributions he needs to qualify for Clean Elections funding. Attorney General Terry Goddard, the Democratic nominee, is also running a publicly funded campaign, which won’t hinder him much if he faces Brewer in November.

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Attorney General

Publicly funded candidates in both primaries could find themselves overwhelmed by privately funded opponents. On the Republican side, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne said he has already raised about $300,000 for his vicious intraparty battle against former Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas, who only gets $183,311 for his publicly funded campaign. Anyone who wonders what Horne can do with a massive fundraising advantage can look to the superintendent’s race in 2002, when he spent about $600,000 compared to $141,000 by Jaime Molera.

The numbers aren’t quite so disparate on the Democratic side, but the campaign finance reports that are due June 30 could show publicly funded candidates David Lujan and Vince Rabago at a disadvantage already. Felecia Rotellini’s last campaign finance report showed she had raised about $115,000 and the former banking regulator isn’t giving any hints about how her fundraising has fared since. Lujan, the outgoing House minority leader, and Rabago, a former assistant attorney general, say their Clean Elections money will be enough to mount strong campaigns.

Secretary of State

Incumbent Secretary of State Ken Bennett doesn’t have a Republican challenger, so he can rest assured that the $183,311 he gets from Clean Elections will be more than enough to win the GOP nomination. But both Democrats in the race are running traditional campaigns, leaving him at risk of being outspent in the general election.

Former Real Estate Commissioner Sam Wercinski and Rep. Chris Deschene won’t have to worry about the loss of matching funds in the Democratic primary. Wercinski, who started his campaign more than a year ago, reported raising $83,000 by the start of January. Deschene, who didn’t start fundraising until November, reported about $21,000 in contributions for the same time period.

Treasurer

Fundraising titans could dominate the treasurer’s race. Republican Doug Ducey, the former CEO of Coldstone Creamery, is rumored to be putting a lot of his own money into the race, though he hasn’t yet filed a campaign finance report. Challenging him for the GOP nomination are two sitting senators and another former senator, all of whom could find themselves overwhelmed financially. Sen. Barbara Leff is running a publicly funded campaign, which will net her just $91,645 for the primary. Sen. Thayer Verschoor and former Sen. Ted Carpenter are both running traditional campaigns.

Democrat Andrei Cherny has run unopposed practically since the 2008 election cycle ended, and his impressive war chest speaks not only to the time spent in the race but his substantial fundraising connections as well. A former White House aide, Cherny is close with former Vice President Al Gore, and those connections helped him raise about $290,000 last year alone.

Legislature

Numerous legislative races pit well-funded candidates — who get $14,319 for the primary and $21,479 for the general election — against publicly funded opponents. In its brief to the U.S. Supreme Court, the Citizens Clean Elections Commission cited the case of publicly funded Republican Sen. Linda Gray, whose general election opponent in District 10, Democrat Justin Johnson, has reported raising more than $31,000 so far.

In the District 11 Senate race, publicly funded Democrat Rita Dickson may face Republican Rich Davis, who has reported about $50,000 in fundraising, in the general election. If District 17 Republican House candidate Augustus Shaw prevails in his primary with nothing but Clean Elections funding, he will face Democrat Ben Arredondo and his $75,000 in November. And District 16 Democrat Ruben Gallego, who is contending with three publicly funded opponents and two traditional candidates, said he has raised about $70,000.