Legislative District 1 Voting History

Current Legislators

Senate

Steve Pierce R
Prescott; rancher.
Termed out in 2016.

House

Lucy Mason R
Prescott; architectural illustrator.
Termed out in 2010.

Andy Tobin R
Paulden; owner of TLC Employee Benefits. Termed out in 2014.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-1in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 59 percent Republican to 41 percent Democrat. That pattern held true for both presidential elections in the decade, with Bush defeating Kerry in the district 59 percent to 40 percent in 2004 and McCain outpolling Obama 59 percent to 39 percent in 2008. Nevertheless, in the gubernatorial election in 2006, Democrat Napolitano defeated Republican Munsil by a similar margin.

In the 2008 election for Congress, Democrat Kirkpatrick was the winner in the district over Republican Hay by three percentage points. Analysts suggest voters in this district were probably influenced by scandals surrounding GOP incumbent Rick Renzi, who had chosen not to run for re-election.

The more restrictive marriage amendment in 2006 was a virtual dead heat in the district with only 18 votes separating supporters and opponents out of more than 74,000 votes cast. In 2008, with 27,574 more votes cast, the more narrowly defined amendment was successful by a margin of 58.4 percent to 41.6 percent.

In 2006, the union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was favored by a wide margin, as was the constitutional amendment prohibiting illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages in state court.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Although Republican registration has declined almost 4.5 percentage points since 2002, Republicans still hold a 16-point voter registration advantage over Democrats.

The ranks of those not affiliated with either major party have grown in recent years and currently outnumber Democrats. Nevertheless, this district is considered safely Republican and has elected only Republicans to the Legislature since 2002.

GOP primaries are often contests between the party’s moderate and conservative wings. Tom O’Halleran, a moderate Republican who supported much of Napolitano’s legislative agenda after his election to the House in 2002, was targeted by conservatives in 2006 when he ran for the open Senate seat. He outpolled Camp Verde cleric Bill Stoll by 1,135 votes (less than six percentage points).
In the general election, O’Halleran proved his appeal among independents by getting the highest percentage of the vote (61.2%) historically of any Senate race in the district.

In 2008, he was again challenged from the right, and this time he lost the primary to Prescott rancher Steve Pierce by 1,408 votes (about the same margin by which O’Halleran defeated Stoll in 2006).
With Mason termed out in 2010, another contentious primary may be in the offing for the district.