Legislative District 10 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Linda Gray (R)
Glendale;
former note-reader scopist.
Termed out in 2012.

House
Doug Quelland (R)
Phoenix;
owner of Thank-Q rentals and Q Coffee bar.
Termed out in 2016.

Jim Weiers (R)
Phoenix;
president BHFC (small loans).
Termed out in 2012.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-10 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 54 percent Republican to 46 percent Democrat. Bush did marginally better than this in 2004, defeating Kerry in the district 55 percent to 44 percent. McCain won the district by a similar margin, beating Obama 54 percent to 44 percent.

In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano beat Munsil by more than 25 percentage points, and the more expansive marriage amendment failed by 4 percentage points. The union-sponsored minimum wage amendment passed by a margin of almost 2-to-1.

In congressional races in 2008, CD-2 Republican incumbent Trent Franks defeated his Democratic opponent in the district by more than 2,300 votes (or nearly 12 percentage points). For CD-3, however, district voters favored Democrat Lord over Republican Shadegg by a narrow margin (286 votes or less than 1 percent of votes cast). In that same race, Libertarian Shoen received 5 percent of the vote, among the highest of any third-party congressional candidate in the state.

In 2008, with 10.6 percent more voters registered in the district than in 2006, the marriage amendment (narrower than the one on the ballot in 2006) saw 43.5 percent more votes than in 2006. The initiative was successful by a comfortable margin (more than 6,000 votes or almost 12 percent of the votes cast) – mirroring almost exactly the statewide vote of 56 percent for and 44 percent opposed.

FINAL ANALYSIS

In 2006, Jackie Thrasher was the first Democrat to be elected to the Legislature from this district when she bested incumbent Republican Doug Quelland by 231 votes. She even came within 589 votes of Jim Weiers, who at the time was speaker of the House. In 2008, with almost 50 percent more votes cast in House races than two years prior, Quelland regained his seat, defeating Thrasher by 553 votes.

Analysts theorize that the presence of Green Party candidate Margarite Dale – one of only two Greens to run for the Legislature in Maricopa County – diverted enough votes away from Thrasher to ensure that the Democrat was defeated. Some speculate that Dale, who is the wife of the pastor of the church attended by Jim Weiers and who was not endorsed by the Green Party, was encouraged to run by Republicans in order to deflect enough votes from Democrat candidates.

Meanwhile, Quelland, who ran publicly funded, has been charged with campaign finance violations by the Citizens Clean Elections Commission. His case is pending.

For 2010, Republicans Bill Adams and incumbent Jim Weiers have filed. Democrats in the race include Thrasher, Edy Blackwell and Aaron Jahneke, who last ran in 2004.

Meanwhile, Senate races have held true to the historic partisan voting pattern of the district: Republicans (Jim Weiers in 2002; Linda Gray since then) win by about 10 percentage points. Democrat Justin Johnson is challenging Gray.

Whereas in 2002, this was considered a safely Republican district, in 2010 this must be considered competitive. Neighborhood safety, K-12 education and the economy are most often mentioned as major issues in the district.