Legislative District 14 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Debbie McCune Davis (D)
Phoenix;
program director of AZ Partnership for Immunization.
Termed out in 2014.

House
Robert Meza (D)
Phoenix;
business development director for Chicanos por la Causa.
Termed out in 2010.

Chad Campbell (D)
Phoenix;
political consultant.
Termed out in 2014

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-14 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 64 percent Democrat and 36 percent Republican. Kerry could not hold that kind of majority and defeated Bush in the district 56 percent to 43 percent. In 2008, Obama restored the traditional pattern, defeating McCain 63 percent to 35 percent, the fourth-largest margin of any district in the state.

In 2006 Napolitano held sway in this district over Munsil by more than 47 percentage points, seventh-largest in the state.

The winning margin for the 2006 constitutional amendment prohibiting illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages in state court was eighth-smallest.

In the same year, the winning margin for the union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was the sixth-largest.

Democratic congressional candidates were successful in the district: Lord over Shadegg by nine percentage points and Pastor over Karg by almost 54 points.

In 2006, an expansively worded marriage amendment was defeated statewide by 3.6 percentages points. It was defeated in this district by 12.6 points. The narrower amendment in 2008 was approved in the district by 9.5 percent, less than the statewide tally of 12.4 percent.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Democrats hold a 27-point registration advantage and a 29-point historical voting pattern advantage. This district has elected only Democrats to the Legislature since 2002. Republicans have never fielded a candidate for Senate in this district, and their candidates for House seats have not come within 15 percentage points of victory.

Vacant seats have not always resulted in rancorous primary battles. When Bill Brotherton retired from the Legislature in 2006, then-Rep. Debbie McCune Davis had no primary opposition. McCune Davis’ trip across the mall resulted in a three-way primary for the two available House seats.

John Valdez challenged in the Democratic primary in 2008, but his appeal for Hispanic votes in this Hispanic-majority district was unsuccessful. Campbell won renomination by a wide margin.

Insiders say McCune Davis and Robert Meza have reached an agreement concerning the 2010 elections. Robert Meza, termed out of the House in 2010, has filed an exploratory committee for the Senate, and McCune Davis is expected to announce a run for the House once she is in the last year of her current Senate term.

The only candidate to file for the House is incumbent Chad Campbell.