Arizona Capitol Times Election Coverage Your Inside Track to Arizona Elections
CURRENT LEGISLATORS
Senate
Russell Pearce (R)
Mesa;
former JP, former director DMV, former deputy sheriff.
Termed out in 2016.
House
Cecil Ash (R)
Mesa;
CEO of the HEAL Foundation (nonprofit NGO).
Termed out in 2016.
Steve Court (R)
Mesa;
retired, former owner Brimley’s Chem-Dry.
Termed out in 2016.
VOTING HISTORY
When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-18 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 61.5 percent Republican and 38.5 percent Democrat. In the 2004 presidential election, Bush performed slightly better than this, beating Kerry 63 percent to 36 percent. In 2008, McCain under-performed slightly, outpolling Obama 58 percent to 40 percent.
In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Republican candidate Munsil lost every legislative district, but he performed best in LD18, losing to Napolitano in the district by only 4 percentage points. The next closest was LD-23 which went for Napolitano by 6.5 percentage points.
In 2008, voters in the 25 percent of LD-18 that lies in the Fifth Congressional District preferred Democrat Harry Mitchell to Republican David Schweikert 55 percent to 39 percent. In 2010, Schweikert bested Mitchell in the district by 1.8 percentage points. The remainder of LD-18 lies in the Sixth Congressional District and supported Republican Jeff Flake over Democrat Rebecca Schneider in 2008 by 62 percent to 34.5 percent. In 2010 Flake increased his margin of victory within LD-18 by outvoting Schneider 64.1% to 30.6%.
In 2008, the union-sponsored minimum wage initiative was approved in each legislative district; the winning margin in this district was the second-smallest in the state (only neighboring LD-19 registered a lower margin).
The marriage amendment was approved in this district both times it was on the ballot. In 2006 the more expansive version got 58 percent of the vote. Only LD-5 registered greater support that year. In 2008, the narrower version received 63 percent.
In 2010 the legislative referrals to sweep Growing Smarter funds (Prop 301) and to effectively repeal First Things First (Prop 302) were defeated in the district (as they were in every legislative district). However, each garnered a greater percentage of votes in this district than in any other legislative district in the state.
Here are the results from the 2010 general election. We contrast the tally from LD-18 with statewide results.
| LD-18 | Statewide | ||
| U.S. Senator | |||
| McCain (R) | 61.90% | 58.70% | |
| Glassman (D) | 30.20% | 34.60% | |
| Nolan (L) | 6.40% | 4.70% | |
| Joslyn (G) | 1.50% | 1.40% | |
| Governor | |||
| Brewer (R) | 56.80% | 54.30% | |
| Goddard (D) | 38.40% | 42.40% | |
| Hess (L) | 3.50% | 2.20% | |
| Gist (G) | 1.30% | 0.90% | |
| Secretary of State | |||
| Bennett (R) | 62.60% | 58.20% | |
| Descehene (D) | 37.40% | 41.80% | |
| Attorney General | |||
| Horne (R) | 54.60% | 51.90% | |
| Rotellini (D) | 45.40% | 48.10% | |
| Treasurer | |||
| Ducey (R) | 54.70% | 51.90% | |
| Cherny (D) | 36.50% | 41.40% | |
| Eichenauer (L) | 5.30% | 4.00% | |
| Meadows (G) | 3.50% | 2.80% | |
| Superintendent of Public Instruction | |||
| Huppenthal (R) | 58.80% | 55.30% | |
| Kotterman (D) | 41.20% | 44.70% | |
| Selected ballot propositions | LD-18 | Statewide | |
| Prop 113: unioin Organizing; Secret Ballot Election | |||
| Yes | 61.40% | 60.50% | |
| No | 38.60% | 39.50% | |
| Prop 203: Medical Marijuana | |||
| Yes | 45.30% | 50.10% | |
| No | 54.70% | 49.90% | |
| Prop 301: Growing Smarter; Fund Sweep | |||
| Yes | 31.40% | 26.00% | |
| No | 68.60% | 74.00% | |
| Prop 302: First Things First; Repeal | |||
| Yes | 34.10% | 30.10% | |
| No | 65.90% | 69.90% | |
| U.S. Representative | LD-18 | CD-5 | |
| CD-5 | |||
| Schweikert (R) | 46.80% | 51.90% | |
| Mitchell (D) | 45.00% | 43.20% | |
| Coons (L) | 8.10% | 4.80% | |
| CD-6 | |||
| Flake (R) | 64.10% | 66.30% | |
| Schneider (D) | 30.60% | 29.10% | |
| Tapp (L) | 3.80% | 3.10% | |
| Grayson (G) | 1.50% | 1.40% |
FINAL ANALYSIS
This district is conservative Republican. The real races in this district tend to be in the primary where social conservatives vie with fiscal conservatives for the nomination. Invariably, the social conservatives win. Democrats rarely have a full field of candidates, and although the difference between the vote total for Democrat Tammy Pursley and Republican Russell Pearce in 2006 was only 4.5 percentage points, most observers attribute Pursley’s showing more to Republican and independent reaction against Pearce than to any voter affinity with Democrat principles.
In 2004, social conservative Karen Johnson faced a similar challenge from within Republican ranks, as Mary Jo Vecchiarelli, the wife of Mesa Mayor Keno Hawker, took her on when she tried to move from the House to the Senate. Johnson prevailed in the primary by six percentage points. Johnson was reportedly so angry that she planned to run for mayor of Mesa at the next municipal election but was prevented because of a constitutional provision prohibiting lawmakers from running for another elective office until the end of their term.
Pearce was challenged again in 2008 when he wanted to move from the House to the Senate. Kevin Gibbons, nephew of Congressman Jeff Flake, ran against Pearce in the primary but lost 69 percent to 31 percent.
Social issues such as abortion and the marriage amendment are very important to district voters. In education, home schooling is popular, and the district has one of the highest concentrations of charter schools in the state. The district’s entire representation changed in 2008.