Legislative District 19 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Chuck Gray (R)
Mesa;
owner of seatcovers.net.
Termed out in 2012.

House
Kirk Adams (R)
Mesa;
partner in the Adams Agency (insurance).
Termed out in 2012.

Rich Crandall (R)
Mesa;
president CN Resources, CFO, Crandall Corporate Dietitians, CPA.
Termed out in 2014.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-19 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 62 percent Republican and 38 percent Democrat. In 2004, Bush outperformed this lopsided pattern, beating Kerry 65 percent to 34 percent. In 2008 McCain also beat the historical pattern, defeating Obama in the district 64 percent to 34 percent.

In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano beat Munsil in all 30 districts. His margin of defeat in this district was third-smallest in the state (only districts 18 and 23 gave Munsil a higher proportion of votes).

The entire legislative district lies within the 6th Congressional District. In 2008, Republican incumbent Jeff Flake beat his Democratic opponent in the district by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

The union-sponsored minimum wage initiative in 2006 also passed in every district. The 13.2 percent margin of victory in this district was the smallest in the state. The winning margin for the constitutional amendment prohibiting illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages passed in this district by the second-greatest margin in the state. Only LD-3 registered a greater margin (72 percent) in favor.

Both versions of the marriage amendment passed easily. In 2006, it passed by the fifth-largest margin in the state. In 2008, it passed by the third-largest margin in the state.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Despite having lost the absolute majority in voter registration they had enjoyed since 2002, Republicans are still in control of this East Valley district. Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 2-to-1 in this district, and both actual and historical voting patterns favor the GOP by almost the same margin. It has elected only Republicans to the Legislature.

Of the eight elections since 2002 (four each for House and Senate), Democrats have fielded a candidate in only four. When they have contested for the House, they have always put up only one candidate for the two available seats. A Democratic candidate for the House has never come closer than 7.5 percentage points (about 6,000 votes). The one time (2006) that a Democrat ran for the Senate from this district, the Republican’s margin of victory was 23 percentage points.

Even Republican politics in the district has been relatively tame. The only GOP primary occurred in 2002, the first year of existence for the district. In 2006, when there were two vacancies in the House, the GOP fielded only two candidates in the primary, and of course both were victorious.

This is the second-least ethnically diverse district in the state (second only to District 8). Law and order issues (including illegal immigration) and social issues (abortion, gay marriage) are most often mentioned as major concerns within the district.

Sen. Chuck Gray has announced he will not stand for re-election in 2010. Rep. Crandall has announced his candidacy. Rep. Kirk Adams has filed for re-election. Republican Scott Perkinson has filed for the House as has Democrat Kathryn “Kit” Filbey.