Legislative District 21 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Jay Tibshraeny (R)
Chandler;
self-employed, citrus orchards and real estate development.
Termed out in 2010.

House
Warde Nichols (R)
Chandler;
self-employed pool builder & pool service.
Termed out in 2010.

Steve Yarbrough (R)
Chandler;
lawyer, owner of student tuition organization.
Termed out in 2010.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-21 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 60 percent Republican to 40 percent Democrat. In the 2004 presidential election, Bush did even better, getting 63 percent of the vote in the district to 36 percent for Kerry. In 2008, Obama did slightly better than the historical pattern, losing 41.8 percent to McCain’s 56.6 percent.

Napolitano defeated Munsil by a margin of 20 percentage points, less than her statewide margin of victory (27 percentage points).

The marriage amendment passed in the district both times it was on the ballot. The more expansive version was approved in 2006 by 638 votes. In 2008, with 65 percent more votes cast, the narrower version had a margin of victory of 13.2 percent, slightly larger than the statewide margin of 12.4 percentage points.

The district favored the union-sponsored minimum wage initiative in 2006, although its margin of victory (22.6 percentage points) was substantially smaller than the statewide margin (29.5 percentage points).

District voters favored the incumbents in both congressional district races in 2008. In the 5th Congres-sional District, Democrat Harry Mitchell bested Republican David Schweikert by 17 percentage points. In the 6th Congressional District, Jeff Flake turned back Democrat Rebecca Schneider by more than 24 points.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Republicans in this district enjoy a voter registration advantage of almost 14 points. Voters in the districts have been 50 percent more likely to vote Republican than Democrat; thus, this district has elected only Republicans to the Legislature since 2002.

The district is in the top-third for per-capita income and for percentage of residents with college degrees. It is in the middle of the pack in racial/ethnic demographics.

Social issues like gay marriage and law-and-order issues like illegal immigration have been most often mentioned as being important to the voters in the district. Also of importance is K-12 education, especially vouchers and the continued expansion of the student tuition organization tax credit.

Democrats have not fielded a candidate for Senate in this district, ceding the seat to former Chandler Mayor Jay Tibshraeny. In House races, Democrat Phil Hettmansperger has been single-shotted twice, each time coming within 1 percentage point of Republican Warde Nichols; in the low turnout year of 2006, the margin was 863 votes.

The entire delegation is termed out in 2010. Tibshraeny, who has aspirations for Congress, may run again for mayor of Chandler to keep his name before voters until 2012 when new congressional lines will be used.

Nichols has said he may not run for the Senate in 2010, leaving Yarbrough as a likely shoo-in for the vacant seat. Yarbrough has been attacked for his sponsorship of and support for legislation that directly affects one of his businesses – the state’s largest student tuition organization.

As of December 2009, Republicans Jeff Vance (Mesa), Venessa Whitener (Queen Creek), former Senate staffer J.D. Mesnard (Chandler), and Tom Forese III (Gilbert) have all filed for the House. Scott Bergson is running as well, but he has not declared party affiliation.