Legislative District 28 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Paula Aboud (D)
Tucson;
property manager, former high school teacher and coach.
Termed out in 2012.

House
David Bradley (D)
Tucson;
executive director of La Paloma Family Services.
Termed out in 2010.

Steve Farley (D)
Tucson;
self-employed graphic designer.
Termed out in 2014.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-28 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 60 percent Democrat and 40 percent Republican. The 2004 presidential election played out almost exactly to type: 62 percent for Kerry to 38 percent for Bush. Results were similar in the 2008 presidential election as Obama outpolled McCain, 62 percent to 36.5 percent.

In the 2006 gubernatorial election, Napolitano defeated Munsil by a margin of more than 3-to-1 (76 percent to 22 percent).

Both versions of the marriage amendment were defeated in the district. The more expansive version in 2006 went down by a 2-to-1 margin (statewide it was defeated by 4 percentage points). In 2008, the narrower version was defeated by more than 23 percentage points, while statewide it passed by 12 points.

The 2006 constitutional amendment to prohibit illegal immigrants from suing for punitive damages in state courts passed in the district but by only by 15 points – one of the smallest margins in the state.

In both the 7th and 8th congressional districts, Democratic incumbents handily out-distanced Republican challengers.

FINAL ANALYSIS

This is a reliably Democratic district, and it has elected only Democrats to the Legislature since 2002. Contested elections in the district tend to be in the primary election rather than the general.
In January 2006, after Democrat Gabrielle Giffords resigned from the Senate to run for Congress, the Pima County Board of Supervisors selected Aboud as a replacement despite then-Rep. Ted Downing having more support among precinct committeemen. Downing then challenged Aboud in the 2006 primary but lost.

The 2006 Democratic primary for the House had four candidates vying for two open seats. Farley and Bradley were successful and went on to win in the general election. Of the two losers, Matt Heinz ran in the neighboring LD-29 in 2008 and was successful; Ted Prezelski’s twin brother Tom represented LD-29 in the House from 2003 to 2008, when he lost in the primary.

Republican Ed Poelstra was elected from the predecessor district in 2000 but did not survive the redrawn boundaries in 2002. In 2006, Republicans unsuccessfully tried to single-shot Bill Philips for the House, and in 2008, Republicans did not field candidates in this district for either House or Senate.

Farley has filed for re-election, but Bradley is term-limited, creating an open seat. Democrats Ted Prezelski (an unsuccessful candidate in 2006), Mohur Sidhwa, Bruce Wheeler and Tim Sultan have filed for the House. Republican Ken Smalley also has filed.

Aboud and Ted Downing have filed for the Senate, setting up a rematch of their 2006 primary battle.