Legislative District 7 Voting History

CURRENT LEGISLATORS

Senate
Jim Waring (R)
Phoenix;
former staffer for John McCain.
Termed out in 2010.

House
Ray Barnes (R)
Phoenix;
owns detective agency.
Termed out in 2010.

Nancy Barto (R)
Phoenix;
homemaker.
Termed out in 2012.

VOTING HISTORY

When the Independent Redistricting Commission drew boundaries of LD-7 in 2002, the historical partisan voting pattern in the district was 62.8 percent Republican and 37.2 percent Democrat. That pattern held in the 2004 presidential election with Bush beating Kerry 61.1 percent to 38.4 percent. In 2008, McCain slipped to 59 percent vs. 36.6 percent for Obama.

Despite the district’s historic Republican leanings, Napolitano beat Munsil in the 2006 gubernatorial race by a margin of nearly six to four. Two years later in congressional elections, Republicans Shadegg and Schweikert defeated Democrats Lord and Mitchell by similar margins.

Certain liberal social issues, however, seem to resonate well within the district. The more expansive 2006 marriage amendment was defeated by 3,600 votes (6.4 percent) , and the union-sponsored minimum wage amendment passed in the district by a margin of 19 percentage points.

For the narrower marriage amendment in 2008, there was a swing of 13 percent among approximately the same number of voters, resulting in success for the amendment by an almost six to four margin. In 2008, 30,000 fewer votes were cast in the marriage amendment contest than were recorded for president.

FINAL ANALYSIS

With a registration advantage of almost 20 points and an even greater margin in historic voting patterns, this district is reliably Republican and has sent only Republicans to the Legislature since 2002.
A Democratic candidate for the House only once cracked the 25-percent barrier: in 2002 when Virgel Cain was a single-shot challenger to John Allen and newcomer Ray Barnes. Cain still came up more than 5,000 votes short of overtaking Barnes. Democrats fielded two candidates for the House in 2006, the only other year in which the margin was less than 10 percent. But Democrat Marilyn Fox lost to Barnes by more than 6,700 votes.

In Senate races since 2002, Jim Waring has proven to be a consistent winner with margins approaching 2-to-1 each time.

Republican primaries are where election contests happen in this district, especially when there is an open seat.

David Burnell Smith, elected to the House in 2004, became the first person booted from office because of violations of the state’s Clean Elections law. He was replaced early in 2006 by Nancy Barto. He attempted a comeback in 2006, but finished third in the primary, 332 votes behind Barnes. He has filed again for the House in 2010.

Waring is termed out in 2010 and is running for Shadegg’s seat in the 3rd Congressional District. Both Barto and Barnes have announced their intention to run for the Senate, setting up an interesting Senate primary (two other Republicans have also filed) as well as creating two open seats in the House.

Smaller government, better schools and lower taxes are often mentioned as important issues in the district.