4 Senate seats in play heading into general election

Lopsided voter registration figures in many of Arizona’s legislative districts will weigh heavily against Senate candidates in the general election, but Republicans and Democrats are expecting a more level playing field in at least four Senate races.

Republicans want to control those seats so they can expand their majority in the Senate, while Democrats are hoping wins in those competitive districts will loosen the GOP’s grip on the chamber.

Right now, Republicans hold an 18-12 advantage in the Senate. The GOP is focused on gaining at least two more seats.

Democrats, who have 120,000 fewer registered voters than Republicans statewide, are trying to protect the seats they already have and to pick up two seats in swing districts.

The Arizona Capitol Times has analyzed the Senate races in legislative districts 10, 17, 24 and 26. We chose to highlight those districts based on interviews with lobbyists, lawmakers and political consultants. We also considered voter-registration advantages, fundraising totals so far, endorsements and perceived name recognition.

Many Capitol insiders agree that Republican Sen. Linda Gray is facing one of the biggest challenges of her political career.

The Democratic candidate, Justin Johnson, is regarded as a serious challenger because his family is well known— his father, Paul Johnson, served as mayor of Phoenix in the early 1990s— and he has raised more than $105,000 so far. On top of that, he was endorsed by some prominent business groups.

Meanwhile, Gray is running as a Clean Elections candidate and won’t receive matching funds to offset Johnson’s spending. Instead, Gray will be limited to $21,479 from Clean Elections for her general election campaign.

The Democratic Party said the Legislative District 10 Senate race represents a pick-up opportunity.

The district, which includes parts of Phoenix and Glendale, perhaps best represents a moderate, urban district, and both candidates have tried to move toward the center to show that they are willing to work across party lines.

Johnson, a small-business owner, said Gray votes with her party more than 95 percent of the time. He said Gray’s work on a bill to prohibit the creation of a human-animal hybrid shows that she is out of touch and too extreme for the district.

“Evaluating pieces of legislation on merit and not voting party line is the most important thing,” he said.

But Gray is no stranger to competitive races. She defeated Democrat Martin Monroe in 2008 by about 5,000 votes despite the fact that more than $54,000 was spent to help Monroe’s campaign.

Gray also pointed to some of the good things that Democrats and groups like the Children’s Action Alliance have said about her. She noted that the Children’s Action Alliance said she was a strong voice for children and education during the 2010 legislative session.

“Mr. Johnson says he’ll work in a bipartisan manner. I’m already known as working in a bipartisan manner, probably more than most Republicans,” Gray said.

Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill’s decision to retire after this year leaves an open Senate seat, setting up a battle between fellow Democrat Rep. David Schapira and Republican Wendy Rogers.

Legislative District 17, which takes in Tempe and south Scottsdale, has been one of the most competitive districts in the state for the past several election cycles. The district slightly leans Democratic, and more voters are registered as independents than as Republicans.

Constantin Querard, a Republican political consultant, said Democrats’ voter-registration advantage in the district will be minimized because Republicans are riding a wave into this election season and Democratic voter turnout was poor during the primary election.

“It’s not unreasonable for Republicans to think they will actually pick up Senate seats,” he said.

Schapira, a small-business owner from Tempe, said the race isn’t as close as expected.

“This district is all about education issues,” he said. “And I think the reason this race isn’t as close as people expected it to be is that Wendy Rogers has been very vocal about wanting to cut education funding even further than it’s already been cut.”

Rogers, a former Air Force pilot, refused to explain her position on funding for public education. She said only that education is “paramount” to voters in the district and that more accountability is needed in the school system.

Rogers said she offers a “vast repertoire of life and professional experience,” including 20 years in the Air Force.

Libertarian candidate Garret Chartier-Dickie is also running for the Senate.

At one point it looked like Democratic Sen. Amanda Aguirre would have a clear path to re-election— former lawmaker Robert Cannell had dropped out of the race, and no other Republican candidate had qualified for the ballot.

But then Don Shooter arrived on the scene.

Shooter, a farmer and former chairman of the Yuma Tea Party, nailed down 2,300 write-in votes in the primary election and appears to be gaining steam heading into the final two months of the general election season.

Even the Democratic Party acknowledged Shooter’s strong showing.

Jennifer Johnson, the party spokesperson, said Shooter’s vote tally means people in the district have taken notice. But she said Aguirre is popular because she has focused on issues that matter to her constituents.

Aguirre was the only Senate Democrat to vote for a ballot referral that seeks to guarantee the right of workers to vote by secret ballot when forming a union, which is an example of Aguirre’s moderate views.

Aguirre, who lives in Yuma, is among a handful of minority members who routinely sponsor measures that are passed by the Legislature.

“What I do is what is best for my district and the people that I represent regardless of what party they are, and my votes reflect that,” she said.

But Shooter said the district, which includes all of Yuma County and part of La Paz County, would be better served by electing a Republican. He said Aguirre is less effective because she’s a member of the minority party.

“I think it would be a great help to Yuma to have a person in the majority party because we could actually move things out of committee and do other things just by the nature of being in the majority party,” Shooter said.

The third candidate in the race is Libertarian Jack Kretzer.

The Senate race in Legislative District 26 offers a familiar cast of candidates.

Sen. Al Melvin, the incumbent Republican who is defending his seat, and Cheryl Cage, the Democrat challenger, clashed over the sameSenate seat two years ago. Melvin won by fewer than 2,000 votes.

The Senate race in the north-central Pima County district has been hotly contested during the past several election cycles. Republicans outnumber Democrats, but independents comprise a third of the electorate and can swing the race either way.

“That’s just one of those districts that I think is always up for grabs in every cycle,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican political consultant.

Melvin has sought to portray his opponent as a “far-left liberal” who wants to promote the Obama administration’s “secular socialist agenda in Arizona.

Cage, on the other hand, said Melvin holds “extreme” Republican views on issues. She has criticized him for voting for cuts to public education.

So far, Cage has outraised and outspent Melvin. Her $89,000 in fundraising dwarfs Melvin’s $48,000. She also has $63,000 left to spend, while Melvin has about $38,000.