Well-known Republicans endorse Giffords as race tightens

Republican Pete Hershberger is crossing party lines by supporting Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in the race for Arizona's 8th Congressional District. (File photo, 2008)

Several well-known Republicans from southern Arizona have thrown their political weight behind U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords at a time when the Democrat incumbent needs all the extra support she can muster.

The race between Giffords and Republican newcomer Jesse Kelly in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District is among the most competitive in the nation, venerable national political outlets have concluded.

Although the effect of endorsements is minimal in most races, the support from Republicans such as former state lawmakers Pete Hershberger and Jennifer Burns could make a difference in a race as close as CD8.

The Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report and CQ Politics have gauged the race as a “toss up” or “pure toss up.”

Kelly’s campaign was quick to seize on the reports to say his opponent is in serious trouble and his candidacy is gaining momentum.

“The voters are responding to our message of economic growth and new jobs for southern Arizona and they are rejecting the job-killing Giffords agenda of higher taxes and more government regulations,” Kelly’s campaign said on Oct. 8.

The Republicans who have endorsed Giffords, including Sahuarita Mayor Lynne Skelton, Sierra Vista Mayor Robert Strain, and Arizona Corporation Commission chairwoman Kris Mayes, praised Giffords for working across party lines and for taking a pragmatic approach to solving problems.

Political observers said the endorsements at least provide Giffords a tool to drum up her campaign message that she’s the most moderate candidate in the race.

Southern Arizona-based political consultant David Higuera said endorsements from established political figures matters less this year compared to other years. But the Republican endorsements of a Democratic congresswoman indicate the extent of the public’s approval of Giffords’ performance in Congress, he said.

“It doesn’t even matter that they are former elected officials. They are examples of the broad spectrum of folks who support her,” Higuera said. “Ultimately, more important than any endorsements is the fact that she’s got so many types of groups and different people from across the district supporting her.”

But Republican political consultant Constantin Querard doesn’t think the endorsements matter.

“If the idea is that she can convince Republicans to vote for her, you know, by rolling out the most liberal Republicans she can find — I doubt that (works),” Querard said. “I don’t think that any of them personally deliver her any votes. Their only value is that they are former Republican officeholders and they allow her to create the perception of some sort of bipartisan support.”

Chris Baker, a political consultant based in the Valley, said endorsements that really affect a race’s outcome are rare, although they carry some value in “low-information” races where candidates don’t have a lot of money or the ability to develop and disseminate their message.

“Endorsements may have some value because they are a quick, simple way for people to understand (their candidacies). That is why you saw these candidates touting the sheriff’s endorsements,” Baker said, referring to Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whose endorsement is highly sought by many candidates for political office in Arizona.

In the case of the race in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, however, both Giffords and Kelly have the ability to advertise their issue positions. And that’s going to impact voters more than any particular endorsement, Baker said.

Baker said Giffords may use the support in a very tactical fashion, such as to send out a mailer that spells out Hershberger’s endorsement targeting specific types of voters in the former lawmaker’s legislative district.

“Big picture is it helps her further the message that she is trying to present to voters – i.e., that she’s a moderate,” Baker said.

Hershberger, a former lawmaker who lost to Sen. Al Melvin in the Republican primary two years ago, has anticipated where his endorsement might have some impact.

“The far Right tuned me out. I’m irrelevant to them is what they’ve stated,” he told the ~Arizona Capitol Times~. “But I think the moderate and the centrist independents and Republicans — maybe if I can influence them, I’d think that’s a good thing.”

When asked about recent polls that show the race is close, Giffords’ campaign replied: “We’ve always known this was going to be a tough race. But nothing is as tough as the ruin middle class families would face if they had to pay Jesse Kelly’s 23 percent national sales tax.”

The Giffords camp has been criticizing Kelly for supporting the so-called Fair Tax, which is actually a proposal to replace all federal income taxes with a 23-percent federal sales tax.

Giffords also seeks to paint the Marine veteran as too extreme for the district, an “ideologue” with dangerous ideas.

Kelly, meanwhile, has been calling out Giffords for supporting the federal health care overhaul and has been seeking to portray the Democrat as an out-of-touch, big-government incumbent.
Republicans are eager to take back the CD8 seat, which was firmly in GOP hands until former U.S. Rep. Jim Kolbe retired four years ago and Giffords won the seat.

Republicans have targeted Giffords ever since. They see this year as their best chance of defeating the incumbent Democrat.

The district leans slightly Republican with a large number of independent voters.