GOP seeking veto-proof majority

Republicans are targeting four Democratic-held seats in the 30-member Senate, a coup that would give them supermajority control for the first time in Arizona’s history.

But at the same time, Republicans are said to be in danger of losing two Senate seats – in districts 10 and 26 – they currently hold.

The chance of Republicans gaining a supermajority in the House also exists, albeit that opportunity is less likely, political observers say.

At the outset, a supermajority provides a defense against a gubernatorial veto. In theory, it would also make it easier for Republicans to push their agenda.

“It will be easier to get 16 votes out of 20 than it was out of 18,” said Senate Majority Whip Steve Pierce.

Owing mostly to a competitive voter make up, political consultants and others have identified legislative districts 17, 23, 24, and 25 as Senate Democratic seats that are in play this year.

But a veto-proof majority has its own complications, and more caucus members doesn’t necessarily translate to more unity or getting things accomplished.

Republicans, particularly in the Senate, have been deeply divided in the past few years on a host of issues, including the repeal of the equalization tax, the referral to raise taxes by one cent and immigration.

Indeed, the potential exists for new factions to form or old factions to be strengthened, thereby reinforcing the divisions.

Political consultant Chuck Coughlin said historically, a large majority by one party tends to lead to fractionalization, which blurs party affiliation in favor of clusters.

Accordingly, coalitions usually form along the lines of fiscally conservative Republicans, moderate Republicans, pro-business rural Democrats, and hard-left urban Democrats.

“They tend to break down that way,” Coughlin said.

Coughlin, Gov. Jan Brewer’s long-time adviser, said the governor has indicated that she wants to govern from a center-right position. He said Brewer’s temporary sales tax increase illustrated her moderate fiscal credentials.

“She’ll be building coalitions of votes on any given number of issues down there based upon who wants to participate with her agenda,” he said, adding that Democrats have the opportunity to play a role if they so chose.

Polls show Brewer with a commanding lead over Democrat Terry Goddard, although they also indicate that the Democratic gubernatorial candidate has narrowed the gap.

If Goddard wins, Republicans would be more likely to exercise their veto-override ability or use it as a leverage to get concessions from the Democrat.

But the immediate challenge for the new Republican legislative leadership will be to maintain unity within their caucuses.

Already, fears exist that with the large infusion of House members the Senate majority caucus would be divided between incumbent senators and the new senators who are former representatives. The division would stem from the historical sibling rivalry between the Legislature’s two chambers.

That’s in addition to the ideological and geographic divisions that have always existed at the Capitol.

“We have to be wary of factions forming,” said House Majority Leader John McComish, a Phoenix Republican who is running unopposed for the Senate. “I think just because our numbers will be bigger there could be more people in each of those clumps, if you will, and so I think that’s why the danger would be higher.”

Sen. Carolyn Allen, a Scottsdale Republican who will step down from the Legislature at the end of this year, said the potential also exists for an “every-man-for-himself” situation.

“A lot of those folks — and I think not to the betterment of Arizona necessarily — have higher ambitions,” she said. “I think you’ll see new alliances made, but they are going to weigh them (with this question): ‘How will this affect my political career?’”

For Senate Democrats, the challenge will be to avoid becoming irrelevant.

They have had bigger chances opposing contentious Republican-sponsored legislation when the split was 17-13, but they found out they weren’t as effective when they only have 12 members, which is the make-up of their caucus in the past two years.

If party lines were indeed blurred and strong factions emerged, Democrats could work the situation to their advantage.

“The strategy for Democrats,” said Sen. Paula Aboud, a Tucson Democrat, “is to begin to find those issues that some Republicans agree with us on and then try to build coalitions to pass good legislation and to stop the bad legislation.”

Indeed, there is a host of issues where the public has taken an unequivocal position, and Democrats could capitalize on them to push or oppose policy changes.

Three major measures would likely preoccupy the Legislature’s time next session: Budget, a jobs bill and legislation challenging the long-held interpretation that children born in the country are citizens, regardless of their parents’ legal status.

Their passage depends on many factors, including the actual language as well as who becomes the new set of legislative leaders.

But already, some aren’t holding their breath for a “conservative budget.”

“The way I think it will play out is that you will just essentially continue to push conservatives to the side and they will make a moderate budget up,” said Sen. Ron Gould, a Lake Havasu City Republican.

What kind of budget is passed and what types of bills are prioritized also depend on who become the next Senate president and House speaker, who have a lot to do in setting the tone at the Capitol.

Consequently, the chances of passing the so-called “anchor baby” legislation dramatically improves if Sen. Russell Pearce became the Senate president.

But Pearce has repeatedly shown he can shepherd a contentious immigration bill all the way to the finish line regardless of who the legislative leaders are and who’s in charge of the Ninth Floor.

“It doesn’t really matter who the governor is or who the Senate president is. Russell gets his stuff through,” Gould said.

The current partisan split is 18-12 in the Senate and 35-25 in the House.