Republicans poised to gain supermajority control of Legislature

Republicans rode a tsunami of voter discontent to wrest away seats from Democratic members on Nov. 2, likely increasing veto-proof control of the two chambers of the Legislature.

The apparent GOP victories tilt the Capitol a little more to the right.

Many of the candidates who won have tea party leanings. They include, for example, Republican Don Shooter, who is a former chairman of the Yuma Tea Party.

“It’s a very difficult night for Democrats,” groaned Sen. Paula Aboud, a Democrat from Tucson. “It’s going to be really a tough year.”

Based on preliminary results, three incumbent Democratic senators – Amanda Aguirre, Rebecca Rios and Manny Alvarez – are on their way out, paving the way for a veto-proof majority in the 30-person chamber.

Four House Democrats – Reps. Rae Waters, Barbara McGuire, Patricia Fleming, Nancy Young Wright – were also losing. A fifth seat, currently held by retiring Rep. Jack Brown, also is poised to flip to the GOP.

If the numbers hold up, Republicans would also get 40 votes in the House, enough to override the governor. The one tight race involved Republican Rep. Vic Williams, who maintains a convincing lead in Legislative District 26 over Young Wright.

Of the Democratic losses, Rios’ exit would have the most immediate impact on the caucus.

Rios was poised to succeed as the minority leader next year. Democrats will need to scramble to select someone to take her place.

Senate Democrats are expected to meet Nov. 3 to choose their next set of leaders.

But a tighter grip on the legislative process means a bigger responsibility – and a bigger risk for Republicans.

Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who will be joining a smaller minority caucus in the Senate next year, said the results put the spotlight on the GOP.

“It places a real burden of responsibility on Republicans to deliver on the promises that they have made to repair Arizona’s economy, grow jobs and support public education,” Sinema said.

Sen. Ron Gould, a Lake Havasu City Republican, agreed.

“If we end up with that big of a margin in the House also then it definitely would be on to us to balance the budget,” he said.

Indeed, the victory celebration was muted slightly by the realities of budget troubles.

Republicans won big, but their proposals to raise more revenue to help plug the deficit were soundly defeated.

The defeat of Propositions 301 and 302, which sought to sweep money from a fund voters created to preserve open spaces and early childhood programs, means the state now faces an additional $450 million in deficit.

Tax revenues are already below forecast based on the latest reports, greatly exacerbating the fiscal situation.

Already, the road ahead is full of political landmines.

Republicans will have to decide, for example, whether to fix that budget hole before the year ends. They will likely face criticism if they wait too long to act on the problem.

With more members, Republicans also face another danger – fractionalization.

“We have to be wary of factions forming,” House Majority Leader John McComish, a Phoenix Republican who ran unopposed for the Senate, earlier said. “I think just because our numbers will be bigger there could be more people in each of those clumps, if you will, and so I think that’s why the danger would be higher.”

Historically, a large majority by one party tends to lead to divisions within the party, said political consultant Chuck Coughlin.

Accordingly, coalitions usually form along the lines of fiscally conservative Republicans, moderate Republicans, pro-business rural Democrats, and hard-left urban Democrats, he said.

In fact, fears already exist that with the large infusion of House members the Senate majority caucus would be divided between incumbent senators and the new senators who are former representatives. The division would stem from the historical sibling rivalry between the Legislature’s two chambers.

That’s in addition to the ideological and geographic divisions that have always existed at the Capitol.
If party lines were indeed blurred and strong factions emerged, Democrats could work the situation to their advantage.

“The strategy for Democrats,” Aboud earlier said, “is to begin to find those issues that some Republicans agree with us on and then try to build coalitions to pass good legislation and to stop the bad legislation.”

Reporter Gary Grado contributed to this article