Voter turnout lower than expected

Voter turnout sputtered in the general election after a strong showing in the primary.

About 52 percent of the state’s registered voters cast ballots in the general election as of Nov. 8, although the rate is expected to improve to the mid-50s with still more than 100,000 ballots yet to be counted, according to the Secretary of State.

That’s lower than the nearly 61 percent turnout during the midterm elections four years ago.

Many expected the turnout to be strong this year because the percentage of voters who cast their ballots during the primary was the highest in 20 years.

And while the breakdown of voters by party registration is still unavailable, the lower numbers appear to have hurt Democratic candidates, according to political consultants and pollsters.

David Higuera, a southern Arizona-based political consultant, said when the economy is bad, the party in control of the White House suffers.

“That depressed Democratic turnout, and probably cost a lot of Democrats,” he said.

Republicans on Nov. 2 gained control of Arizona’s congressional delegation, completed a sweep of the state’s executive offices and won supermajorities in both chambers of the Legislature.

Pollster Michael O’Neil said it would be consistent with the national trend if Democrats in Arizona voted in lower numbers than in previous elections.

“It’s very, very believable that that’s the case,” he said.

There were already tell-tale signs of potential Democratic woes this year.

Arizona added nearly 159,000 new voters since the general election two years ago, pushing the electoral population to more than 3.1 million.

But the number of Democrats shrank by almost 20,000 during that time, and nearly all of the growth occurred among voters who chose to register as independents.

Turnout was lower than the state average in several counties where Democratic incumbents lost their reelection bid.

For example, Pinal County estimated that the final turnout would be about 48.4 percent. That’s considerably lower than the 56 percent in 2006. Incumbent Democrat Sen. Rebecca Rios lost her reelection bid in Legislative District 23, whose voters mostly reside in Pinal County.

The turnout in Yuma County currently hovers about 42 percent; it was nearly 50 percent in 2006.

Political observers and pollsters point to the dire state of the economy, the impact of SB1070, negative campaigning and the lack of competitiveness in “marquee” races as potential explanations for the lower-than-anticipated turnout.

“The S1070 stuff – we don’t know the full impact of it, but my best inference on that is it caused an exodus of a lot Hispanics out of the state, and not necessarily all illegals,” O’Neil said. “If a lot of people left the state, they’re still registered voters and they’re in the denominator of that equation but not in the numerator.”

O’Neil based this on the experience of Prince William County in Virginia, which adopted a law similar to Arizona’s SB1070 a few years ago.

Evidence indicated that a modest number of migrants, both legal and illegal, left the county as a result of that policy.

O’Neil said the state will get a better picture once student enrollment figures become available.

Another theory is that there were no seriously contested races at the top of the ballot.

Republicans U.S. Sen. John McCain and Gov. Jan Brewer were expected to win, O’Neil said.

“And those are the marquee races that bring people out,” he said. “There always is a suppression of vote when the marquee offices don’t appear to be competitive.”