Arizona is poised to get approximately $4 billion from the federal economic recovery package passed by Congress this month, and much of the money will be controlled by the governor, not the Legislature, according to an analysis by legislative budget staff.

That money, mostly available for two years, could go a long way to help state lawmakers bridge what is expected to be a $3 billion budget deficit next year.

There is some flexibility in how to use the money, but there are many caveats. For one, the money not designed as permanent assistance and it comes with strings attached.

The money cannot be used to replace state funding in many cases. Some assistance requires matching money from the state. The use of some money is conditioned on "maintenance of efforts." That is, the state must maintain certain funding levels or thresholds in order to qualify to get the money.

Budget staff cautioned lawmakers that their estimate could be revised on clarification from the federal government. Many questions remain unanswered, including when and in what increments the money would become available.

But what is clear is that Gov. Jan Brewer will have to play a bigger role in crafting the fiscal 2010 budget than she did in fixing the fiscal 2009 deficit, where her input amounted to the restoration of about $18 million to certain health and welfare programs.

The assistance from the federal government is coursed through her office and not the Legislature, a source of frustration for some Republican lawmakers.

"Shame on Congress for continuing to ignore states' constitutions and the appropriations responsibility of legislatures," said Sen. Russell Pearce, the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The debate at the Capitol in the next few weeks is likely to center on which money to accept.

"It is one-time money, and if you are just going to fill the hole with one-time money, then you just push the problem out," Pearce said. 

Pearce said he also refuses to "grow government."

But House Assistant Minority Leader Kyrsten Sinema said the federal package is good news and particularly critical for education. Staff said the money will be available for the fiscal 2009 budget.  

Because the federal assistance depends largely on gubernatorial discretion, Sinema called on Brewer to take an "active role" in crafting the budget. She also urged the governor to listen to agency officials in how to direct the money.

"I would say in the areas where she gets to make determinations about the funding allocations, first you look for opportunities to fill back in some holes that need to be filled so that we qualify for the fund," Sinema said. "No. 2, look for opportunities to maximize potential matches."

A potential flashpoint is already emerging.

The Department of Economic Security, whose current budget was recently reduced by $90 million, has decided to cut its child care funding by $24 million.

Under the stimulus package, $50 million is available to Arizona for child care. But there is a "maintenance of efforts" requirement, meaning the state would only get the money if that $24 million is somehow restored.

DES could rearrange its cuts so child care doesn't take a hit, but that means they would have to take the money from other areas.

"I'm not sure there are enough places to get that $24 million so that we can get all of the funding that we need," Sinema said, adding she doesn't think that the Legislature is inclined to give or restore $24 million to DES.

Two primary initiatives will provide the state with direct fiscal relief – Medicaid money and fiscal stabilization funding.

Here are the broad strokes of what Arizona will get from economic recovery plan:

* $1.6 billion in Medicaid money tied to a specific unemployment rate.

* $1 billion under the stabilization fund.

* $1.5 billion for the next two years in "secondary" assistance.

Under the package, the federal share of the Medicaid cost is increased to 75 percent from 66 percent for health care programs serving low-income families. This expectedly comes with requirements, such as the state cannot lower eligibility limits. Also, the level of federal aid is tied to the state's unemployment rate. That is, the higher the unemployment rate, the bigger the money that the state gets.

With a 6.9 unemployment rate, the state would get a total of about $1.6 billion in Medicaid money through fiscal year 2012.

There are also conditions to qualify for the stabilization fund, where the bulk of the $1 billion is expectedly dedicated to education.

The money can be used to backfill education reductions with the goal of reaching fiscal 2008 or fiscal 2009 levels. But state funding for education cannot fall below the 2006 levels. 

According to budget staff analysis, the current funding for universities and community colleges is only about $70 million above the 2006 levels. The universities' budget was reduced by $141.5 million in the fiscal year 2009 fix.

The appropriations chairmen's options include about $314 million in university reductions for fiscal 2010.

Debra Friedman, dean of ASU’s College of Public Programs, says planning for human services infrastructure is as vital as planning for transportation infrastructure.

Prospects for women entering the field of public policy is a good news/bad news situation — and not necessarily in that order.
Given the state of the economy, the bad news is that public policy positions are going unfilled across the board. The good news is that once an economic recovery takes hold, public policy will be a growth industry.
But in the meantime, the field of public policy, particularly in the human services sector, faces severe challenges. Because a disproportionate number of women are attracted to roles in human services, deep spending cuts in that sector disproportionately affect women.
Regardless of gender, though, public policy professionals are facing the same type of challenges, says Debra Friedman, dean of the Arizona State University College of Public Programs.
“It takes higher degree of skill and experience to lead and manage through this period of time than it does when there is a lot of money to spend,” says Friedman, who is also the university vice president at ASU’s Downtown Phoenix campus. “People in the public sector in general are all having their mettle tested.”
The public sector has long been a place of opportunity for women and it continues to provide jobs, though to a lesser degree as elected officials cope with unprecedented budget constraints.
In Arizona, women have been remarkably successful in being elected to top-level positions. In 2000, Arizona made history when the top five elected officials were women — governor, secretary of state, attorney general, treasurer and superintendent of public instruction. In fact, Arizona has had more women governors — four — than any other state: Jan Brewer, Janet Napolitano, Jane Dee Hull and Rose Mofford.
Women have also risen to the top in bureaucracy, Friedman notes, adding:
“And I don’t mean bureaucracy in a negative way. They are the people who actually run the cities, the counties and the state. Those opportunities are there for both elected and bureaucratic roles.”
Human service sector facing severe shortages
The greatest opportunity for women in public policy continues to be in human services. A report by the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at ASU, released last September, says labor force shortages in human services rival those in any other sector, including nursing.
“A very serious shortage is coming in both the public sector and nonprofit sector for people who deal in human services,” Friedman says.
“One of the reasons is that many women who chose that field in the early 1970s are now getting close to retirement. It’s the Baby Boomers who will be retiring, and no one is coming in to fill their place.”
Yet, there is a theory among some Baby Boomers that because of the state of the economy, Boomers might not be anxious to retire until conditions improve.
Friedman says social work, particularly in the field of mental health services, has not been the profession of choice for public policy graduates. “Working conditions are so rough,” she says. “The case load is high and the pay is low. It’s much like the nursing shortage, only worse.”
The Morrison Institute report foresees a significant increase in demand for human services, and thus a need for public policy professionals. Its findings include:
• Child Protective Services is facing a staffing shortage that makes the agency unable to meet present demand, let alone future needs.
• The Department of Economic Security identifies preparation for an aging population as a key goal, with significant shortages in professionals trained to work with the elderly.
• Greater and more diverse services will be required for the estimated 40 million visitors to Maricopa County in five years.
• There is a growing need for providers fluent in Spanish.
• To meet the growing population demands on park and recreation services, there is a need for more youth and senior staff.
“We need to be planning for human services infrastructure as seriously as we do for physical infrastructure, such as for transportation,” Friedman says. “Yet this is exacerbated by the economic situation. We need to pay attention to people in poverty, particularly children. We need to look at the economic issues for retirees.”
Arizona has a relatively young population, younger than the national average. “That surprises some people here,” Friedman says. “A more youthful population places demands on the system.”
In addition to education, those demands include drug abuse prevention programs for young people at risk, more parks and recreation facilities, especially after-school programs. “It’s a general quality-of-life and prevention strategy,” she says.
Friedman recommends a public policy discussion on all of the relevant issues and the will to see it through. Regardless of whether enough public policy professionals step forward, Friedman says, society will pay in one of three ways.
“It’s not a question of paying or not,” she says. “We will pay in prevention, or we will pay in direct service or we will pay in loss of human potential. This is especially critical with respect to young people.”
At the other end of the age scale, the 85-and older population represents the fastest growing sub-group. “People are living longer and many wish to age in place, which means there will be an extension of public services, especially home and community-based services,” Friedman says. “As people get older, they are less able to afford their own care.”
The issue of longevity directly affects women more than men, especially when it comes to public policy issues. On average, women live longer than men, and caregivers are more likely to be women, Friedman notes.
Additionally, more women than men wind up in poverty.
One of the reasons women live longer is that men typically lead more stressful lives in their occupations. Ironically, as more women enter high-powered public policy positions, Friedman says, “they’re catching up with men in the worst possible way with respect to longevity.”
No ‘glass ceiling’ in
public policy professions
Though Friedman says there is no glass ceiling for women in public policy professions, she adds: “My view is it is still a man’s world. That is, there is still a disproportionate number of men in the public policy realms, but there is not a glass ceiling per se. In the public policy world, the opportunity for women is, from my point of view, quite open. There is considerable opportunity for women.”
A looming shortage in the public sector is in key bureaucratic positions, such as city and county managers. “You’ve probably never known a little kid to say he or she wanted to grow up and be a city manager,” Friedman says. “The way cities and counties and the state operate is with people who choose to pursue professions in public service. An MBA is more preferred than MPA, a master’s in public administration. Women are more likely to choose majors in human services and public service than men are.”
Yet, in the short term, the economy is taking its toll on job prospects.
Friedman recalls the midyear graduation in December with some dismay.
“A
s I looked over the graduates in my college, people who are getting degrees in social work, public policy and nonprofits, there was a pall over the graduation,” she says. “My graduations are usually very highly spirited. Graduation was very sobering for men and women alike, and it’s not going to be any better for our May graduation, because the job market across all sectors is quite poor.”
Friedman pauses, and says, “I really, really feel for the graduates. However, this is a great time to be in school. It would behoove students to consider preparing for the opportunities that are going to come in public policy in general. We welcome people to ride out the economic downturn in higher education, and particularly those who are devoted to public policy.
“We need all brilliant talent that there is to be devoted to these areas, and second, it is likely to be an area of considerable growth when we get out of this downturn. It will be a growth industry.”≠