The temporary tax increase that Gov. Jan Brewer is proposing as part of her five-point economic recovery plan has frequently been presented by her and her staff as a last resort, to be used only if the budget cannot be balanced by spending cuts and federal stimulus dollars alone. But since unveiling the controversial proposal, the governor has sent mixed signals about whether a tax hike is an absolute necessity or distasteful possibility that can still be avoided.

Explaining her call for the tax hike, Brewer has told audiences across the state, "I do not propose these steps lightly, and you would not hear me utter these words if I didn't firmly and honestly and confidently believe that that is what is absolutely necessary at this time." She also describes her five-point plan, which includes $1 billion in new spending cuts and an overhaul of the 1998 Voter Protection Act in addition to $1 billion in new tax revenue, as "five integrated and essential proposals to rescue our state budget from financial collapse and to begin building a better Arizona."

In response to a question about the tax hike proposal from an audience member in Casa Grande, Brewer even said, "It is the only way to solve our budget."

But the governor and members of her administration at other times have stopped short of saying the tax is a necessity, instead referring to it as a last resort that will be employed only if the budget cannot be balanced solely with budget cuts and federal money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which could pour several billion dollars into the state over the next two or three years. Following her speech in Casa Grande on March 12, Brewer told the Arizona Capitol Times that she misspoke when she said a tax hike is the only way to solve the budget crisis.

"A temporary tax increase is a last-resort effort," she said. "And we'll go in and do a billion dollars, some way, somehow, in budget reductions, and then as last resort, if we can't get it squared, then we will attempt to do a temporary tax increase."

How the state might erase the $3 billion deficit it faces in its 2010 budget without enacting a tax increase is not clear. But Brewer, who proudly touts the anti-tax record and fiscal conservatism that have characterized her 27 years in public office, is hopeful that it can be accomplished.

"There is no certainty at this point in time exactly how you're going to get there. The bottom line is that the information that we have currently is we believe that we need to go and we need to wait and see what we're going to get from the stimulus dollars. We need to see how much collectively we can determine on the budget reductions," Brewer said. "And then we will see, as a last resort, to put out to the voters or get from the Legislature a temporary tax increase."

Also unclear is whether a temporary tax increase, if deemed necessary, will ever see the light of day. Any tax increase requires a two-thirds vote in the Legislature, an unlikely development considering the dominance of fiscal conservatives in the House of Representatives and Senate. If the Legislature does not enact the tax itself, Brewer has asked lawmakers to send the question to the ballot so Arizona's voters can decide. That would require only a majority vote in the Legislature, but some question whether the governor can reach that goal, and whether voters will be willing to increase their own taxes.