Arizona’s health director said today statewide cases of COVID-19 could peak in mid to late April and hospitalizations will peak in May. 

“Over the last few weeks we’ve seen these numbers continue to climb and we expect greater increases as we move forward,” Arizona Department of Health Services Cara Christ said. “We will continue to take steps designed to protect our healthcare workers and increase capacity in our health care system.”

Christ’s announcement comes weeks after she and Gov. Doug Ducey danced around the question of how long the pandemic will last and when Arizona can expect relief. In order to prepare for that projected peak, Christ, her department and emergency management staff around the state are working to secure more hospital beds, ventilators and personal protective equipment for health care workers.

When the peak arrives, according to the department’s models, the state could need an additional 13,000 hospital beds and an additional 1,500 ICU beds — that’s on top of the current 16,000 beds and 1,500 ICU beds the state has.

Three hours after Christ said that projection, she walked it back in a tweet in order to provide “some perspective” about the significance of them.

“Our numbers are based on worst case projections from the beginning of the outbreak based on data from Wuhan,” Christ tweeted later. While the department and state plan for the worst, the state is working to slow the pace and reach of the spread.

“The numbers provided earlier today assume nothing is done to mitigate the spread between now and then,” Christ tweeted. “We’re hoping all the things we’re doing now will mitigate the spread.”

As of Wednesday, the state has reported 401 case in 11 counties — 251 in Maricopa County, 49 in Pima County, 37 in Navajo County, 23 in Pinal County, 23 in Coconino County, four in Yavapai County, two in Graham County, three in Yuma and one each in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. The state is expected to get a better idea of how far-reaching the spread of the pandemic is and who the virus affects most and why as private-sector testing companies are now required to report all results of COVID-19 tests or a weekly aggregate number pursuant to Ducey’s recent executive order.

Christ has said a more expansive and public collection of data gives Ducey and everyone else a clearer picture of how bad the problem is, where the virus is spreading and helps them decide what to do about it. 

In addition to increasing testing capacity and surveillance, Christ said hospitals across the state are working with the National Guard, looking for spare space to add more beds and looking at “non-traditional” areas like ambulatory surgical centers and respiratory training facilities for ICU care, and other large venues like the coliseum on the state fair grounds for recovery care for those who are ready to leave the hospital but can’t.

The state also needs more ventilators, and it requested 5,000 ventilators, five times the number it has on hand now. Christ said Monday she wants the state to get up to 4,500 to 5,000.

As those demands change, so does the threshold for care, which is why it will be hard, if not impossible, for the state to say at any given point that it’s doing enough or more than enough.

“The estimated need is rapidly evolving and as we gather new data with a potential surge of COVID-19 patients we expect it to be above and beyond our current capacity of beds,” Christ said. “Our hospitals and staff are on the front line of this response, and their continued ability to care for our communities, in a safe manner is critical in Arizona’s success in overcoming COVID-19.”

But, Christ and Ducey still would not give an approximate end-date to the pandemic and how long the drastic social distancing and business closure measures could last — because they don’t know.

Ducey again reiterated a new favorite phrase that allows him to vaguely address how long this pandemic could last: “This is going to be a marathon, not a sprint.”

Ducey has fallen back on the “marathon” line at every public event since he declared a state of emergency, stressing that the decisions he makes are guided by health experts like Christ – who continues to say when asked she doesn’t “want to make predictions.”

On Wednesday, Ducey directly addressed people criticising him for being vague.

“Anyone who tells you when they know this will be over, they are guessing,” Ducey said. “We’re in a position right now where we can plan ahead, we can be proactive. But we have to deal with the issues in front of us.”

Ducey said that to a thinned herd of reporters at the state’s laboratory for COVID-19 testing. It was the smallest showing since Ducey and Christ started holding the briefings, which were once packed with reporters and state officials standing shoulder to shoulder. Now most were attending remotely on a video conference application.

When faced with more questions about details of the projected peaks, Ducey ended the conference.

“In closing — in closing the idea is to reduce the number of deaths, reduce the number of illnesses,” Ducey said. “That’s what we’re focused on every day, That’s what the decisions have been today, and that’s what they’ll continue to be.”

Editor’s note: This story has been revised to include further comments from Arizona Department of Health Services Director Cara Christ to explain that projections are based on worst case scenarios.