GOP gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson’s campaign is in the middle of a multi-million-dollar TV ad buy and a pair of outside groups have placed TV ads attacking fellow Republican candidate Kari Lake. They’re the first big advertising moves in a gubernatorial race that’s expected to be hotly-contested and break ad-spending records. 

Matthew Benson, a spokesman for Taylor Robson campaign, said they’re hoping that a $2.5-million spend from mid-January through the end of this month will boost their candidate in polls, which so far show her lagging being former TV anchor Kari Lake and former congressman Matt Salmon. The GOP nominee will likely face off in the general election against Democratic frontrunner and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. 

“That is a significant ad buy by any measure and we expect to see the numbers move,” Benson said. “Karrin has some ground to make up in terms of name ID among Arizona voters,” he added, noting that Lake and Salmon have had more public exposure in the past. 

The campaign has put out a pair of 30-second spots: one introduces Taylor Robson as a “fighter” and touts her conservative, pro-Trump credentials; the other features her standing by the U.S.-Mexico border and talking about an “invasion” as migrants walk through the background. 

Meanwhile, two outside groups have placed attack ads targeting Kari Lake on local TV, though they’re hitting her from different angles.  

The Republican Accountability Project – a group backed by anti-Trump Republicans including Bill Kristol – took out a 30-second ad calling Lake “a threat to our democracy” for spreading lies about the 2020 election. Another group, called Freedom’s Future Fund, has placed TV orders and created a 30-second spot that links Lake to Barack Obama and Joe Biden and says she “supported open border politicians.” 

Opinion polls so far show Lake in the lead, followed by Salmon, with Taylor Robson and businessman Steve Gaynor trailing the pack with single-digit support among Republican voters. Paul Bentz, a pollster with the GOP firm Highground, noted that the attack ads against her also point to Lake’s perceived frontrunner status: “People don’t invest money to take out individuals who are flagging or are struggling,” he said. 

Where Taylor Robson does stand out is in terms of cash. She entered 2022 with almost $3 million cash-on-hand, approximately half of which was self-funded, compared to Lake’s $375,000 and Salmon’s $492,000. (Gaynor had about $5 million, but it came almost exclusively from personal loans). The ad buys indicate Taylor Robson’s effort to turn that cash advantage into voter support, something Bentz said looks possible for the first-time candidate. 

“Individuals have proven the ability to use funds to be competitive in several of these primaries. It hasn’t always translated to general election wins, but it can make a difference in these smaller turnout primaries,” Bentz said. He pointed to Christine Jones, who made some inroads in the 2014 GOP governor’s primary before losing the race to Gov. Doug Ducey; and Steve Gaynor, who beat out then-Secretary of State Michele Reagan for the Republican nomination for that job in 2018 by dipping into his own pockets to fund campaign spending. 

“If by the time April comes around, she’s (Taylor Robson) considered a top-tier candidate with Salmon and Lake, that would be a victory for her,” Bentz added, referring to the April 4 candidate filing deadline. 

A review of invoices posted to the FCC website in 2022 for KPNX (12 News), KTVK (Arizona’s Family), KPHO (CBS 5), KSAZ (Fox 10) and KUTP (Fox 10 Extra) found the stations have collectively charged the Taylor Robson campaign $347,000, and she was the only gubernatorial candidate to show up in the invoices. “It’s nice to have the airwaves to ourselves,” Benson said. 

There were also charge orders indicating Freedom’s Future Fund is buying TV time for its anti-Lake spot, but FCC documents didn’t show any invoices sent to the group yet. It’s not clear who is funding Freedom’s Future Fund, but documents show that one of its directors is longtime GOP strategist Chris Jankowski. The Republican Accountability Project ad played during a Phoenix Suns game in January, according to the group. 

(The review was limited to invoices publicly available on the FCC website, which don’t give a comprehensive picture of all ads on local TV. For instance, KNXV (ABC15 Arizona) doesn’t have any invoices posted to the FCC site, but candidates are spending there, too.) 

Estimates provided by the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission project that $168 million will be spent on the governor’s race, topping previous records. 

Still, the lion’s share of political TV ad spending this year in Arizona has been dedicated to the state’s U.S. Senate race – specifically the Republican primary. So far, the stations have sent bills totaling $560,000 to GOP Senate candidate Jim Lamon’s campaign and $453,000 to Saving Arizona, a PAC funding fellow GOP candidate Blake Masters’ bid. The Clean Elections Commission’s figures forecast $217 in spending on the Senate race. 

Tom Collins, executive director of the Clean Elections Commission, said it’s all part of the larger trend of more money being spent on politics – and one reason that’s happening is that candidates want to make sure they can keep buying TV ads. 

“There is a real sense that there’s an arms race quality to fundraising, in terms of nobody wants to no one wants to concede the airwaves,” he said.