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Trump candidates swept primary – what about November? 

Trump candidates swept primary – what about November? 

Former President Donald Trump, left, gives Kari Lake, who is running for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Arizona, a hug as Trump speaks at a Save America rally Friday, July 22, 2022, in Prescott, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

The Trump faction of the Republican Party won big in the August 2 primary election, notching victories from the U.S. Senate race down to state legislative districts.

These victories of former President Trump-aligned candidates signal a shift in the state Republican Party and set up a distinct dynamic that could define the general election campaign.

One upshot of the wave of Trump victories, some Democratic strategists say, is a better shot of general election wins for Democrats in November, an election widely expected to favor Republicans.

“Arguably you have the most extreme set of Republican nominees from top to bottom that we’ve ever had in modern state history,” said Chad Campbell, a Democratic consultant. “From a Democratic perspective, there’s a bigger opening there for Democratic candidates,” he added later.

Democratic consultant Tony Cani acknowledged that the Trump-endorsed candidates he views as “wildly out of touch” with voters have platforms that Democrats can highlight to more liberal constituents and possibly help them, but he is wary of celebrating. “I think that the danger for democracy is way too severe.”

At the top of the GOP primary ballot, where U.S. Senate candidates vied for the opportunity to take on U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly in November, tech executive Blake Masters was leading with 39% of the vote, as of late August 3. Masters was endorsed by Trump and his campaign was supported by millions of dollars in funding from Trump-adjacent technologist Peter Thiel.

In the gubernatorial race, former Fox 10 anchor Kari Lake held a lead over developer and former Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson late August 3, though the margin was narrow: Lake was sitting at 46.2% and Taylor Robson at 44.4%. Lake earned Trump’s endorsement last year and made it a central feature of her campaign.

“MAGA had the best night probably since November 8, 2016,” said Republican consultant Barrett Marson.

The victories for Trump endorsees continued down the ballot: Mark Finchem cruised to victory with over 40% of the vote in the GOP secretary of state primary; Abe Hamadeh emerged from a crowded six-candidate field for attorney general nd was leading with 32% of the vote; in Legislative District 10, former Sen. David Farnsworth beat out Speaker of the House Rusty Bowers, R-Mesa, who took a stand against Trump’s election lies when he testified before Congress’ January 6 committee; in District 9, incumbent Sen. Tyler Pace, R-Mesa, fell far behind challenger Robert Scantlebury.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant, said he saw the results as a big loss for moderates on both sides of the aisle. Besides the wins for Trump-endorsed candidates, he pointed to moderate Democrats in the Legislature like Morgan Abraham, D-Tucson, who also lost primary battles.

“Progressives won on the left, and populists won on the right,” Coughlin said.

Among the Trump-endorsees, Lake and Finchem’s apparent victories were particularly poignant because their opponents had support from Gov. Doug Ducey. The governor gave his endorsement to ad executive Beau Lane in the secretary of state race, calling out Finchem (though not by name) for sowing doubt about the integrity of the primary election. Ducey also backed Taylor Robson, hitting the campaign trail with her and her highest-profile endorser, former Vice President Mike Pence.

The Trump candidates are young and old, political veterans and political neophytes. What unites them all is a focus on claims of alleged fraud in the 2020 election – something that so far hasn’t been backed up by any evidence.

That unity was apparent during the primary campaign. Trump-endorsed candidates from around the country endorsed one another, often appeared together at events, and propped each other up on occasion with campaign donations. The national attention helped bring in cash from groups and individuals outside of Arizona.

“We present a united front; we Trump endorsees,” said Sen. Wendy Rogers, R-Flagstaff, on the Flyover Conservatives podcast on June 19. Rogers outraised her opponent Sen. Kelly Townsend, R-Mesa, ten times over, but most of her contributions did not come from Arizonans.

With the primary election in the rearview mirror, an open question is whether the wider Republican Party will display the same unity that the Trump candidates did in recent months – or whether it needs to do so.

Marson said that he and other Republicans will wait to see how Trump-endorsed candidates shift during the next 90 days before deciding if they’ll vote for their party’s nominees.

At a news conference on August 3, Lake said that she wants to be a unifying candidate. “I want to bring the Republican Party together. … We’re one big, happy, sometimes dysfunctional family, but we can come together,” she said.

Coughlin said he doesn’t think that means making any compromises. What that message from Lake means, he said, is “Get in line!”

“I don’t see her being conciliatory,” he added.

Barry Aarons, a longtime Capitol lobbyist, said that a move back toward the moderate center would be the best strategy for right-wing Republicans who earned the GOP nomination this week.

“Most primary candidates tack. If they’re Republicans to the right, if they’re Democrats to the left. And then if they want to be successful, they tack back to the center” in the general election, Aarons said.

Of the Trump-endorsed candidates, Aarons added, “I think it is advisable for them to aggressively talk about issues that are going to attract the folks who… aren’t necessarily Trump supporters.”

But Coughlin said he thinks many of the candidates in this crop of Trump-endorsed politicians can’t or won’t shift their stances.

“I don’t think the word pivot is in Mark Finchem’s vocabulary,” he said.

Lake in particular should bring herself back to the center, according to Aarons. “If she’s going to be successful in the general, she’s got to carry those votes over and attract votes on issues like the economy, and water, and other kitchen table issues, to pick up the Republicans who voted for Karrin Taylor Robson and to pick up the independents who lean center right.”

Lake seemed to reject that approach in her comments on August 3.

“I’m not going to change,” she said. “Because I won doesn’t mean I’m going to now pivot and try to become a Democrat. Absolutely not. It was conservative ideals that this country was founded upon, and it is conservative policies that will get us out of this mess we’re in.”

 

 

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