Republicans are set to gain ground in both chambers of the state Legislature after securing victories in several battleground districts.

Election results aren’t final yet, but all four legislative caucuses felt confident enough in results so far to hold leadership elections, with current races unlikely to change.

Republicans will have picked up two seats in the House to expand the majority to 33-27, while Senate Republicans have picked up one seat and expanded the majority to 17-13. 

“It’s just clear now that there’s been a general repudiation at what Democrat policies have been,” said House Speaker Ben Toma, R-Peoria. “I think the governor has failed on a number of her priorities, and it’s over. It’s pretty clear that Arizona has spoken pretty definitively.”

Three of the state’s swing districts that were vital in helping Democrats reduce GOP majorities completely flipped red, including Legislative Districts 4, 13 and 16. 

In LD4, Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, and Republican Pamela Carter beat Democrats Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham, taking a House seat from Democrats. Republicans also gained a Senate seat in the district after Carine Werner beat Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix. 

“It was a pretty big win,” Gress said of the district. “I think this district performed the way we understand it should be performing, which is a center-right district and when you talk about the issues that matter to Arizonans – cost of living, safe neighborhoods, great schools – that resonates with these voters in a big way.”

Gress said Marsh was a tough candidate to beat in the district, with her serving in the Senate since 2020 and having big fundraising dollars go toward her in recent elections. In this election cycle, Marsh raised almost a half million dollars, according to her most recent campaign finance report. 

In a written statement conceding to Werner, Marsh said, “My only regret is that I wanted to accomplish so much more. I had hoped that I would serve in the majority party during my tenure as your state senator.” 

Republicans took a House seat in LD13 with incumbent Rep. Julie Willoughby and former state Rep. Jeff Weninger beating both their Democrat opponents Nicholas Gonzales and Brandy Reese. In LD16, Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande, lost to Republican Chris Lopez. 

Democratic consultant Gaelle Esposito said she believed part of the Republican gain in the House was due to an “ambitious” Democrat strategy of running multiple candidates in districts where they ran only one candidate in recent years. 

LD4 and LD13 Democrats ran two House candidates. In 2022, when they had House seats in both those districts, only one Democrat ran for the House.

Democrat Stephanie Simacek is leading her House race in GOP-leaning LD2 as a single-shot candidate, and Democrat Kevin Volk is leading his House race as a single-shot in LD17. This district isn’t considered competitive by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission but has seen support for Democratic candidates among voters.

“I wouldn’t feel great fundamentally if I were (Republicans). This was the best partisan environment that they could have asked for, and this is all they got,” Esposito said. 

Republicans also performed well in LD23, which has been projected by the redistricting commission as a safe blue district. Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma, got the most votes in the House race against Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Goodyear, and Matias Rosales. Republican Michelle Altherr was also about three percentage points behind Sen. Brian Fernandez, D-Yuma.

Democrats also led in other swing district House races, LD9 and LD2, and appear to have held seats by thin margins, like Rep. Seth Blattman, D-Mesa, winning by just over half a percent over Republican Kylie Barber by Nov. 13. 

“We got so close to 34, and maybe even 35,” Toma said. “It’s still a lot better than the initial results (on election night) at 30-30.”

GOP consultant Doug Cole said he believes the few seats Republicans picked up will be influential for Republican policy goals, even operating under divided government with Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs.

“The past four years have been one vote,” Cole said. “Sometimes people will need to break away, and this will allow them to … supermajorities are sometimes harder to navigate because you get subgroups that become pretty powerful.”

Republicans may not have a supermajority but they do have a subgroup in the Arizona Freedom Caucus, which has sometimes gone against Republican leadership at the Legislature, and Cole acknowledged Freedom Caucus Republicans will have influence over the Legislature. 

“The Freedom Caucus is still as relevant as they always have been because of who the president of the United States is,” Cole said.