Key Points:

• US Rep. David Schweikert joins Republican primary for governor

• Schweikert concerned about Republican candidates’ ability to beat Gov. Katie Hobbs

• Schweikert’s departure opens up a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix

U.S. Rep. David Schweikert is officially jumping into the Republican primary for governor, opening up a barrage of political attacks from both sides of the aisle and a competitive congressional seat in northeast Phoenix.

After months of speculation, Schweikert confirmed his intent to run in an interview with the Arizona Republic on Sept. 30, citing his concern that the two current Republican candidates, fellow U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, cannot defeat incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs in a general election. The announcement sparked swift reactions from both Republican candidates and supporters of Hobbs.

“The race for second place is on between two career politicians,” a press release from Robson’s campaign said. 

Biggs’ campaign highlighted a new poll from conservative firm Pulse Decision Science, which put him far ahead of both Robson and Schweikert, with Schweikert trailing 23% to Biggs’ 61% among likely Republican primary voters. 

“No matter what the field looks like, the polls have been clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are supporting our campaign,” Biggs said in a post on X. “We’ll keep working and building on our lead over the coming months.”

Both Robson and Biggs touted their shared endorsement from President Donald Trump, something Schweikert is unlikely to snag. Trump previously endorsed two candidates in 2024’s Republican primary for Congressional District 8, but a three-way endorsement would be unprecedented.

Biggs also has the support of conservative juggernaut Turning Point USA, and its late-founder Charlie Kirk endorsed his campaign earlier this year. Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs and a Republican turned independent, said he doesn’t see a path to victory for Schweikert in the primary. 

“I think most MAGA Republicans and Trump supporters in the Republican primary are going to Congressman Biggs,” Coughlin said. “Given the geography of (Schweikert’s) district, I could see how he could persuade maybe some of Robson’s supporters to move his way … but I still think Karrin, given her last statewide race and better name I.D., is a pretty formidable candidate herself.” 

Democrats joined in on the attacks against Schweikert Tuesday, with Copper State Victory, the coordinated campaign to re-elect Arizona’s top three Democrats, calling out the Congressman’s recent votes in favor of Trump administration policies like the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

“The Arizona GOP gubernatorial primary is already a messy, expensive race that is running further and further to the extreme right at the expense of Arizona families,” a press release from Copper State Victory said. “With Congressman David Schweikert’s decision to step into the ring, this primary will now escalate exponentially into an all-out brawl.”

Schweikert’s decision to enter the gubernatorial race opens up his seat in Congressional District 1. He and U.S. Rep. Paul Gosar are Arizona’s two longest-serving current congressional members, and Schweikert’s departure from Congress would give a new Republican candidate the opportunity to try to secure what has become a key battleground seat for the GOP in recent elections. 

In 2024, Schweikert defeated Democrat Amish Shah by just under 4% of votes in the district, expanding on a narrow 2022 victory where he beat Jevin Hodge by a margin of less than 1%. 

Shah is running again for Congress in the district, and 11 other Democrats have filed paperwork with the Secretary of State’s Office to express interest in running as well. 

“David Schweikert will no longer be my opponent. Earlier this year, he joined nearly every House Republican in Congress to take healthcare away from millions of Americans and explode the national debt, all to give tax cuts to the ultra-rich. Meanwhile, the American people witness daily chaos and absurdity in the news every morning from government shutdowns to canceling comedians to economy-crushing tariffs. Any Republican from our district who replaces Schweikert in this race will be afraid to stand up to the Trump Administration to put America on the right track,” Shah said in a statement. 

Registered Republican voters outnumber registered Democrats by more than 62,000, according to a July voter registration report from the Secretary of State’s office. There are another 179,000 voters registered as “other” in the district.

“Republicans will field a strong candidate to defeat whichever liberal emerges from the Democrats’ 7-way primary. Voters in this district are shifting rightward and reject Democrats’ tax-raising, open borders agenda,” said National Republican Congressional Committee Spokesperson Ben Petersen.

One prominent valley Republican has already rejected rumors that he might run for the CD1 seat hours after Schweikert announced his decision to run. 

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman Thomas Galvin wrote in a post on X that he’s flattered his name has been tossed around as Schweikert’s successor but he would rather continue serving on the board with the “best job in Arizona government.”

While rumors continue to swirl around potential Republican candidates in CD1, no official announcements have been made.