Key Points:

• Gov. Katie Hobbs kicked off her reelection campaign with a weekend of rallies

• Hobbs will face the winner of a three-way Republican primary set for next August

• The governor is focusing on her wins at the state level 

With the 2026 election just one year away, Gov. Katie Hobbs kicked off her reelection campaign with a series of rallies shaping her “Arizona First” messaging and denouncing her Republican opponents’ support of President Donald Trump.

Hobbs, who officially announced her bid for reelection on Oct. 9, is hoping to hold on to the Ninth Floor for four more years. At “Arizona First” rallies in Tucson and Phoenix on Nov. 1 and 2, her campaign made it clear that the governor plans to focus on her wins on state-level issues while lambasting Republicans for supporting Trump and his agenda. 

“Right after the 2024 election, Donald Trump came to Arizona, and he made it clear that winning this governor’s race was a top priority for him,” Hobbs said at the rallies. “He wants someone who will do whatever he demands and not push back, and all three of my opponents fit this bill.”

The governor will face the winner of a three-way Republican primary slated for Aug. 4, 2026. U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson are widely seen as frontrunners in that contest, with U.S. Rep. David Schweikert expected to pose less of a threat after his late entry to the race in early October. 

Hobbs recognizes that she will face a tight, closely-scrutinized race, calling it “one of the toughest in the country,” to supporters at her rallies. Cook Political Report currently rates the Arizona gubernatorial race a toss-up, in part due to the increase in Republican voter registration since Hobbs was first elected governor in 2022. 

And though Hobbs rode into office on a blue wave in 2022 alongside Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes, Democrats in the state did not fare so well in 2024. Trump carried the state that year, despite former President Joe Biden winning in Arizona in 2020. 

Still, Hobbs and her supporters are making opposition to Trump a cornerstone of their fight to keep Democrats in the top three positions in Arizona. Biggs and Robson share an endorsement from Trump, while Schweikert seems to occupy the uneasy middleground between a Trump-loving and a Trump-hating conservative. 

At Hobbs’ Tucson and Phoenix rallies, Arizona leaders like U.S. Rep-elect Adelita Grijalva, Arizona House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos and Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo all called out the Republicans for their association with Trump.

“(This race is) a choice between chaos and common sense, between a decent public servant who cares about every Arizonan, from people in Maryvale to people in Marana, to extremist politicians who just want to please Mar-A-Lago,” De Los Santos said at the Nov. 2 rally, referencing Trump’s Florida resort. 

Hobbs contrasted her opponents’ support for Trump’s controversial “One Big Beautiful Bill” with the state budget she signed in late June, her third budget negotiated with the Republican-controlled Legislature. She noted, “Every single one of my opponents supported that terrible (federal) budget.” 

“After negotiations with both parties, I signed a balanced, bipartisan budget that puts families first,” Hobbs said. “At the same time, politicians ran through a reckless, partisan budget and all of my opponents cheered it on.”

The governor and her supporters also touted wins like the repeal of Arizona’s near-total territorial abortion ban, new groundwater legislation, funding for the Division of Developmental Disabilities, border security coordination efforts and even her record-breaking vetoes. While Republicans often criticize Hobbs for breaking the state’s veto record twice in just three years, Grijalva spoke of it as the last line of defense against harmful policies. 

“The veto, the one that has protected Arizona nearly 400 times,” Grijalva said. “That is courage, and that’s the kind of steady hand Arizona needs, especially now, because let’s be honest, the other side isn’t hiding their agenda.”

Hobbs is well-positioned to hit the ground running once the race is solidified in August 2026, with a $5 million campaign war chest and a fully-staffed campaign apparatus at her disposal. But before then, she will have to navigate a legislative session likely to be plagued by tough budget negotiations and Republican attempts to get around her veto pen. 

Lawmakers and Hobbs will have to work to fill the gaps in federal funding created by cuts from Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” with state budget analysts predicting it will cost $1.1 billion to conform to the federal budget bill. Republicans will also likely use their ballot referral powers to send legislation vetoed by Hobbs to the ballot, as they did with the 11 referrals they sent to the ballot in 2024. 

“We’re going to have a tough legislative session up ahead,” Gallardo said at the Nov. 2 rally. “We need to make sure that we are all standing not only with legislative leaders there that are fighting for our causes, but that Gov. Hobbs understands we have her back and we will stand with her over the next 12 months.”

As far as attacks from the other side go, Hobbs has a response. She has been criticized for alleged pay-to-play schemes in her administration, her choices for leaders at state agencies, inaction on immigration and more, but maintains that issues like those won’t define her campaign. 

“I know that you all are going to hear a lot of things in this campaign, and that my opponents will try to make me into someone I’m not, but I am rooted in Arizona,” Hobbs said. “I’ve waited tables, taken second and third jobs to pay the bills, and I’m the only social worker ever elected governor in the United States.”

Hobbs closed out both rallies by noting that she has faced uphill races before, including her 2018 campaign for secretary of state, and is prepared for the challenge ahead.

“There will be people who underestimate us, and I know what that feels like because in every campaign I’ve run, I’ve been underestimated,” Hobbs said on Nov. 2. “But I can tell you one thing, I’ve never lost an election. We are not starting now.”