Key Points:

• Gov. Katie Hobbs’ reelection campaign is likely to hang over the legislative session

• Republicans are expected to obstruct the governor at every turn 

• Consultants say Hobbs should play to the middle, compromise and stay disciplined

Gov. Katie Hobbs and legislative leaders will face several pressing issues during the 2026 legislative session, including expiring K-12 education funding, groundwater conservation, and a state budget complicated by federal funding and tax cuts. 

But hanging over all of those issues will be the governor’s reelection campaign. 

Republicans in the Legislature haven’t been quiet about their plans to make Hobbs a one-term governor, even before any challengers emerged from the right. This year, they will do everything in their power to stymie the governor’s policy priorities, block her nominations for leaders at state agencies and circumvent her veto pen by sending legislation directly to the voters.

For her part, Hobbs will have to negotiate with Republicans to pass a bipartisan budget, extend Proposition 123 to provide funding for schools, conform the state tax code to changes made in President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and get a Colorado River deal through the Legislature — all before hitting the campaign trail. 

Political consultants on both sides of the aisle say the governor should focus on bipartisanship this session and pursue policy initiatives that appeal to moderate and independent voters.

“I think her base is fine,” said Chuck Coughlin, the CEO of HighGround Public Affairs. “I don’t think she needs to play the progressive card. What she needs to do is put some points on the board to demonstrate that she’s getting results.” 

A Democratic consultant speaking to the Arizona Capitol Times on background agreed with Coughlin’s assessment, saying Arizona Democrats understand that the governor has to appeal to the middle in order to stay in office. 

And Hobbs is no stranger to the pragmatic, moderate approach to governing, but Republican consultants argue that her current legislative record consists mostly of vetoed conservative bills rather than negotiated bipartisan policies. 

“What’s the reasoning that we should give her four more years?” said Barrett Marson, a GOP public relations consultant. “Just telling voters ‘I was a backstop to bad Republican ideas’ probably isn’t going to do it.”

But Democrats see it differently, arguing that voters are glad to have Hobbs as the last line of defense against more extreme Republican legislation and that the Governor’s Office has advanced policy goals over the past three legislative sessions. Democrats usually point to the governor’s signature on the 1864 abortion ban repeal, the bipartisan compromise on an ag-to-urban groundwater bill and her ability to pass three negotiated state budgets alongside Republican leaders. 

Most consultants agree that Hobbs’ largest task this session will be balancing the state budget in the wake of significant federal funding and tax cuts, as well as low state revenue collections. The Joint Legislative Budget Committee estimated in December that it will cost the state over $400 million in general fund money in the current fiscal year to conform to federal changes passed by Congress and signed by Trump.

Coughlin said Hobbs should tap into the state’s $1.6 billion budget stabilization fund, colloquially known as the rainy day fund, which lawmakers have specifically set aside for shortfalls caused by recessions or natural disasters.

“If I’m her, I make a play for that money,” Coughlin said. “And let (Republicans) say no. What good is a rainy day fund if it’s raining and nobody’s spending the money?”

Consultants also say Hobbs’ proposal to only adopt tax cuts aimed at middle-class earners in H.R.1 while leaving out those aimed at high earners and corporations will also play well with many voters. Democrats across the state and country are leaning into an affordability message as voters continue to rank the economy as one of their top priorities. 

“Where she’s trying to go for this tax cut I think is a huge winner for folks,” one Democratic consultant said. “The fact that Republicans haven’t totally gotten aligned on their messaging on that front makes her look better.” 

While Republicans expect Hobbs to pursue reforms to Arizona’s school voucher program, Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, one Democrat said she should avoid wading too deeply into the issue because it could alienate some voters. Democrats are also suggesting that Hobbs avoid taking the bait on “culture war” bills related to transgender student athletes or immigration.

But Republicans say the governor can’t avoid addressing immigration, arguing the two task forces she created to address drug trafficking and transnational criminal organizations are not enough to persuade Arizonans who consistently rank the border as a top issue. One Republican consultant said Hobbs “is not dealing with that issue in a sufficient way.”

And consultants on both sides of the aisle agreed Hobbs’ staff needs to remain disciplined and focused to avoid unforced errors that plagued her administration early on, like her decision to pull her agency director nominations from Senate consideration in 2023, an alleged pay-to-play scandal involving a campaign donor and the Department of Child Safety, and a controversy over a $700,000 new state logo. 

“How do you not self-sabotage? Well, you get better staff,” one Republican consultant said.

One Democratic consultant suggested keeping announcements and policy moves hidden from view — and from Democratic legislators — until the last possible moment. In contrast, Coughlin suggested taking a page from President Trump’s playbook and flooding the zone.

“In previous administrations, we always had the slogan, ‘We gotta put more toys in the crib,’” Coughlin said. “We have to throw more things down into the Legislature and into the media room so you guys are talking about other things.” 

Most politicos agree Hobbs is entering 2026 strong, with a massive campaign war chest, an incumbency advantage and midterm election headwinds on her side. But the legislative session and the months following it could make or break her candidacy.

“This is not a blowout election,” Coughlin said. “This is not anybody’s foregone conclusion. It’s going to come down to the candidate and the campaign.”