Key Points:

• Multiple state Senate candidates in competitive districts are fundraising hundreds of thousands of dollars

• These races could swing the state Senate

• Parties are courting independent voters, who nearly match or surpass Republicans in their districts

Arizona Senate candidates in four competitive legislative districts have raised hundreds of thousands of dollars during this cycle, underscoring the high stakes of a midterm election that could determine control of the chamber. 

Candidates from both parties in Legislative Districts 2, 4, 13 and 17 each raised more than $100,000 in just the recent quarterly period from July 22 to Sept. 30. The fundraising comes as Democrats try to break the 17-13 GOP majority in the state Senate, with close races and open seats putting several districts in play.

Unaffiliated voters, who recently surpassed Republicans as the state’s largest voting group, could be pivotal in deciding these contests. However, election observers say voter turnout may be the most important factor.

Chuck Coughlin, founder of HighGround Public Affairs Consultants, said his firm’s polling suggests tindependent voters are moving toward Democratic candidates, though it remains to be seen how many will make it to the ballot box.  

“They’re breaking hard against the Republicans,” Coughlin said. “They just don’t participate.”

About 45% of Arizona’s eligible voters participated in the 2022 midterms, while nearly 58% participated in 2024, a presidential election year. Arizona hasn’t seen voter turnout below 40% since the 2014 midterms, when about 30% of eligible voters cast a ballot. 

Legislative leaders from both parties said they still believe they can win more votes before election day. 

“All hardcore Republicans and hardcore Democrats have made up their minds,” said Senate Majority Leader John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills. “Swing Republicans, swing Democrats and independents, I think a lot of them aren’t sure yet. … Traditionally, they come home. I’ll be like a Motel 6 clerk; I’ll leave the light on for them.”

But House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos, D-Laveen, who also co-chairs the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said he believes many Republicans could be persuaded to vote for Democrats or stay home because of President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and the war in Iran. 

“There’s a good contingent of Republicans who are sick and tired of what their party has become and are disillusioned by it,” De Los Santos said. “I’ve spoken to some of them myself, and I’m hearing they’re willing to give us a shot.”

Legislative District 2

Incumbent Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, raised $163,000 during the quarter, with about $116,000 from individual contributions. Her opponent, Amelia Gallitano, raised $196,000 during the quarter, with $166,000 from individual contributions. 

The North Phoenix district is one of the state’s most competitive, and Bolick won her 2024 election by about three percentage points.

Unaffiliated voters are the district’s largest voting bloc at 48,000, followed by Republicans with 45,000 and registered Democrats with 36,000. 

Only one other legislative district has contributed more money to Senate candidates than LD2.

Legislative District 4

The Scottsdale-area LD4 has seen the most money in any state legislative Senate race, with both candidates raising almost half a million dollars combined. 

Incumbent Sen. Carine Werner, R-Scottsdale, raised $225,000 during the quarter, and her opponent, Aaron Lieberman, nearly matched her with $222,000. Both candidates also had about $200,000 in individual contributions. 

Money flowing into the district this cycle surpasses the 2024 race, when Werner won by nearly four points. Werner raised about $90,000 after 2024’s primary as a first-time legislative candidate, and her opponent Christine Marsh raised $142,000. 

Werner’s 2024 victory flipped a Democratic Senate seat. Marsh won by one point in 2022’s midterms.

Republican voters lead the district with about 66,000. The district has 57,000 unaffiliated voters and 44,000 Democrats. 

Legislative District 13

The Chandler-area district will see a new senator with Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, termed out. 

His seatmate, Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, is now running for the Senate and has raised $173,000 in the recent quarter, including $105,000 in individual contributions. Democrat Christie O’Brien raised $107,000, including $73,000 from individual contributions. 

Mesnard won the district by about six points in 2024 and three points in 2022. This is Willoughby’s first Senate race after she won one of her district’s House seats in a five-candidate race, beating the runner-up by about two points.

Independent voters in this district outnumber Republicans (51,000) and Democrats (39,000).

Legislative District 17

This district, which includes parts of Tucson, Marana, and Oro Valley, will also elect a new senator in 2027 as Sen. Vince Leach, R-Tucson, retires. Leach won his 2024 race by two points after knocking off incumbent and Arizona Freedom Caucus member Justine Wadsack in the Republican primary. 

Both Senate candidates in LD17 have raised over $100,000. Republican Christopher King defeated Turning Point Action-backed Anthony Dunham in this year’s primary, while Democrat Edgar Soto ran unopposed. 

King has raised $123,000 after the primary, with $90,000 in individual contributions. Soto nearly matched him, raising $111,000 and $88,000 in individual contributions. 

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission didn’t consider LD17 competitive when it redrew the districts in 2021, but both parties now view its Senate and House seats as high priorities, with close races in 2022 and 2024.

Almost 70,000 registered Republicans, 63,000 unaffiliated voters and 53,000 Democrats reside in the district.