Key Points

• Republicans are divided over the future of Turning Point USA in Arizona
• Some moderates say the group should stay out of the candidate selection process
• Erika Kirk, TPUSA’s CEO, says now is not the time for finger-pointing

Turning Point USA put its money and reputation behind Republicans in Arizona, only to see its candidates take an electoral drubbing on Tuesday. While some blame national political headwinds, others are pointing fingers at Turning Point itself.

Founded by activist Charlie Kirk, the Phoenix-based conservative advocacy group recruited or supported primary challengers in nearly every statewide race, helping to unseat two GOP incumbents. But its candidates struggled in the general election, contributing to a likely Democratic sweep of statewide offices for the first time in decades. 

Turning Point-backed candidates elsewhere also lost, including Texas gubernatorial candidate Ken Paxton, Iowa gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn and GOP Senate candidate John Sununu in New Hampshire.

The defeats have intensified a growing divide among Arizona Republicans over Turning Point’s role in selecting the party’s candidates. Some Republicans argue the group’s success in primaries has come at the expense of the party’s ability to win over independents and moderate voters in general elections.  

“The way to start winning elections is to move away from Turning Point and nominate traditional Republicans rather than extremists,” said Tom Horne, superintendent of public instruction, who lost his primary bid for reelection this year to Turning Point-endorsed state Treasurer Kimberly Yee. 

Yee is poised to lose to Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz, who led 53% to 47% as of Thursday afternoon. 

Turning Point did not respond to an interview request. 

But Turning Point CEO and Chair Erika Kirk said in a Wednesday social media post that the organization will keep fighting for conservative causes and will study the election results to decide its next steps. Turning Point is closely aligned with President Donald Trump, who has credited the group with helping turn out the youth vote to propel him to victory in 2024. 

“The biggest mistake conservatives can make right now would be to allow this moment to become another exercise in finger-pointing, in-fighting, or trying to secure their own political preservation,” Kirk wrote on X. “That does not solve the problems the American people are demanding be solved.” 

Concerns that Turning Point is ‘too extreme’

Turning Point threw its full weight behind Congressman Andy Biggs’ gubernatorial campaign as consultants and moderate Republicans warned the group would need a win to maintain its grip on the state’s conservative base. Turning Point Action, the group’s political action committee, spent more than $18 million to support Biggs’ campaign. 

Even so, the congressman lost to incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs, 56% to 43% as of Thursday afternoon. Drew Sexton, Biggs’ senior campaign adviser, attributed the loss to Democrats’ united front and a tough political environment.

“There already seems to be a lot of cynical finger pointing, which is unfortunate, but I hope at some point we’ll get to move forward as a party,” Sexton wrote on social media. “I’m very grateful for every organization and supporter who pitched in to help Andy and our team and I’m so sorry we let those folks down.”

But some argue Turning Point made the mistake of selecting extreme candidates who couldn’t win over independents and moderate voters in the general election. 

After Turning Point-aligned candidates fell short in Arizona’s 2022 contests, the Phoenix-based conservative group tried to prove its viability through a 2025 Mesa City Council recall election and off-cycle Salt River Project board races. While TPUSA unseated moderate City Councilor Julie Spilsbury, voters turned out in record numbers in the SRP election to thwart the group’s slate of candidates.  

“I think Turning Point is good at winning primaries, but the candidates that win primaries can’t win general elections because they’re too extreme,” Horne said.

Corporation Commissioner Nick Myers, who also received primary treatment from Turning Point, said this election could keep more conservatives from stepping up to run for office. After losing to Rep. Ralph Heap, R-Mesa, in July, Myers said he’ll consider a future run only if Turning Point no longer influences the process.

“If they go away, then maybe I would,” Myers said. “Because I don’t want to have to fight my own people to do a job.”

Perception or reality?

Stan Barnes, a former Republican lawmaker and president of Copper State Consulting Group, a public affairs firm, said Republican losses aren’t solely attributable to Turning Point — but the group’s involvement is a piece of what went wrong. 

“For better or worse, there’s a perception of zealotry by the average person and regular voters [towards Turning Point candidates],” Barnes said. “That’s not a good thing. It may or may not be fact, but the perception is real, and that perception does not help.”

Turning Point — and Republicans more broadly — must now take a new look at what voters want and how they might reinvent themselves, he said. 

“The Republican Party finds itself in Arizona in the wilderness for the first time in 60 years,” Barnes said. “It’s a new place. And how the party comports itself now … will set the stage for eventual success, if it is to be had.”

Arizona Democrats say that Turning Point isn’t going away anytime soon. And despite their new majorities, Republicans still lead in Arizona voter registration.

“The thing that [Democrats] need to be cognizant of is keeping this coalition intact by legislating the correct way so that we don’t have more 2024 backlash years and we can actually build off of this,” said consultant Matt Grodsky.