Tag: Amanda Reeve

Eight years ago, newly drawn legislative maps cost Republicans their supermajorities in the House and Senate.

This year, the final election with the districts drawn in 2011, Republicans could lose their majorities, period.

In their fifth and final outing with the current districts, Republicans in the legislative majority face a daunting set of maps. Registered Republicans might outnumber Democrats by nearly 100,000 statewide, but Democrats made significant voter registration gains in Phoenix suburbs, where a handful of districts in which Republicans held double-digit leads in voter registration in 2012 are now well within reach for Democrats.

With just one true exception — and one technicality — House and Senate seats have only flipped when fewer than 10 percentage points separate voter registration numbers for the two major parties. This year, that holds true in nine districts: five represented entirely by Republicans, two represented solely by Democrats and two with split party representation.

Rural Republican districts have only gotten redder. But while dramatic increases in registered Republican voters in Prescott and Mohave County might aid Republicans seeking statewide office, that growth does little to help build margins in the state House and Senate.

Democrats, who only need to flip two seats to win the state House and three to win the Senate, have multiple options in the Valley, as well as a perpetually close district in northern Arizona. Republicans are on the defensive, with their best — though still slim — chances for picking up seats in suburban districts they recently lost and a southern Arizona district where Democrats hold a double-digit lead in registered voters. 

The best shot: LD 28

In north Phoenix, former lawmaker Eric Meyer sees a clearer path forward for Democratic Senate candidate Christine Marsh in her race against incumbent Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee than Meyer had when he and Brophy McGee squared off for the then-open Senate seat four years ago. 

Legislative District 28, which encompasses the Biltmore area, Arcadia, Sunnyslope and the upscale town of Paradise Valley, has always been a little unusual. Meyer, Brophy McGee and then-incumbent Republican Rep. Amanda Reeve all ended up in LD28 through redistricting in 2012, when cutting off more liberal parts of central Phoenix created a district with a Republican voter registration edge of 12.4 percentage points.

Meyer won, building up votes on the geographic edges of the district where Hispanic and Democratic voters are concentrated and persuading enough of the moderate white Republicans who made up the bulk of the district to vote for him. LD28 continued having at least one Democratic representative, then gained a second House seat in 2018. 

A gradual shift in voter registration numbers began accelerating rapidly after the 2018 election, when Rep. Aaron Lieberman won his House seat and Marsh came within 300 votes of beating Brophy McGee. In the two years since, Democrats have registered nearly 5,000 more new voters in the district than Republicans, and the Republican voter registration edge shrank to 1.9 percentage points. 

Meyer, who is still active in district politics, attributes that increase in large part to a more robust and well-organized district Democratic Party. Now, LD28 Democratic volunteers work year round to keep their newly registered voters engaged, with volunteer political opportunities and social events, including book clubs and trivia nights scheduled every month. 

Donald Trump helped LD28 Democrats too, after initially providing a boost to Republicans in 2016 in his successful run for president. Suburban, white, college-educated voters who historically voted for Republicans for economic reasons dislike what they see as the bombastic rhetoric and divisive politics of the Trump administration, helping Democrats win legislative and congressional seats in 2018. 

“Right now, if the election were held today, enthusiasm in District 28 is pretty high,” Meyer said. “There’s a lot more Democrats that have been registered, so that’s in Christine’s favor. The district is more organized with volunteers, the voters are excited and the polling looks good for Christine. Everything’s looking good right now, but it depends on what happens on Election Day.”

The Southeast Valley – LD17 and LD18

In the Southeast Valley, a post-Trump suburban shift has been bolstered by an influx of new residents from other states, fueled by a booming tech industry in Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert and Mesa.

In Legislative District 18, which includes Ahwatukeee and parts of Tempe, Chandler and Mesa, Republicans started the decade with a voter registration edge of 8.6 percentage points. By 2018, the district had elected a slate of three Democrats. Now, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. 

“When I was first elected in 2016, there were about 6,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats,” said Sen. Sean Bowie, D-Ahwatukee. “Today, there are about 4,000 more registered Democrats. You see a 10,000 person shift in the last four years, so I think it’s a couple of things causing it.”

Longtime Republican voters turned off by Trump were more willing to give moderate Democrats a try, voting in 2018 for Democratic U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey and three legislative Democrats. And an increase of new young voters, many drawn to the mostly single-family zoning in LD18 to start their families, brought Democratic voting patterns with them. 

Bowie noted: “My district, and District 28 and District 17 which is just to the east of me, if you look at the performance from 2016, 2018 and even primary turnout from this year, you just see a really marked shift away from Republicans in those areas.” Bowie said.

LD18 Republicans struggled to find viable challengers to Democratic incumbents this year, ending up with a QAnon conspiracy theorist to challenge Bowie and former lawmaker Bob Robson and write-in candidate Don Hawker running in the House after an initial House candidate dropped out over fears about contracting COVID-19. 

In LD17, changing demographics have Sen. J.D. Mesnard running scared. Democratic Rep. Jennifer Pawlik of Chandler didn’t just flip a House seat in 2018 – she came in first place, beating out Rep. Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler, by about 400 votes after he secured roughly 7,000 votes more than she did just two years before.

This year, Weninger is most likely safe. Democrats opted to stick with the “single-shot” strategy of running only one candidate in the House and asking Pawlik supporters to leave their second choice for the state House blank. 

But Mesnard is one of the top targets of state and national Democratic groups, second only to Brophy McGee when it comes to endangered GOP senators. 

LD17 had a nearly 15 percentage point Republican lead in voter registration in 2012. Now, it’s 6.4 percentage points. And independent voters who broke for Mesnard and Weninger in 2016 jumped to Pawlik in 2018, raising hopes for Democrats that Senate candidate Ajlan Kurdoglu will win the seat.

Chandler has a combination of the suburban voters who dislike the president and a growing workforce led by transplants from blue areas like California, Chicago and the Northeast. 

“I wouldn’t call it the perfect storm, but it’s quite the storm here,” Mesnard said.

The West Valley – LD20 and LD21

Across town, rapid population growth in the West Valley has moved Legislative District 20 and Legislative District 21 into reachable territory for Democrats. 

Sinema won LD20 in 2018, and the 10 percentage point voter registration lead Republicans held in the Glendale-based district in 2012 has narrowed to only 4 percentage  points. Liberal groups are spending heavily in the district to help Democratic candidate Judy Schwiebert unseat either Rep. Anthony Kern or Rep. Shawnna Bolick.

They’re less bullish about opportunities to remove Republican Sen. Paul Boyer, who enjoys significant support from unions because of his dogged pursuit of health protections for firefighters. 

LD21 is a tougher district to flip, as the Republican voter registration advantage only fell from 10.1 to 9  percentage points since 2012. It includes portions of rapidly growing Peoria, but also contains the wealthy conservative retirement community of Sun City. 

Democratic hopes in LD21 are pinned primarily on the perceived strength of their House candidate, former independent Kathy Knecht. As an independent running for the Senate in the district in 2018, Knecht came within 3,500 votes of winning a seat. 

Republicans previously won the district with margins of 20 points, putting Knecht’s 4.4-point loss to Sen. Rick Gray well above expectations. This year, she has the benefit of running for an open seat and with the backing of a major party. 

The constant: LD6

Like in LD21, party registration splits in Legislative District 6 have remained relatively constant throughout the past eight years. Republicans now hold an 8.8percentage point voter registration lead, down from 10.6 percentage points in 2012.

General elections have always been close — Republican Sen. Sylvia Allen of Snowflake eked out wins over Democratic opponents by fewer than 2,000 votes in nail-biter races in 2016 and 2018, and Democratic candidate Felicia French came within 600 votes of winning a seat in the state House in 2018.

This year, Democrats see an opportunity to win seats in the House, Senate or both because of the strength of their candidates. French is now running for the Senate, and she has spent most of the intervening two years still on the campaign trail, going door-to-door to meet with voters in even the most remote areas of the sprawling northern Arizona district.

She won’t face Allen, a White Mountain fixture who managed to maintain relationships with conservative Democrats as well as Republicans and independents to win re-election. After a decade of failed runs for Congress in Tempe and northern Arizona, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers turned her sights on LD6, trouncing Allen in the August Republican primary. 

To prevent a French win, a political action committee connected with Ducey is spending tens of thousands of dollars on ads to convince voters that French is too radical for LD6. And GOP consultants are trying the same strategy in the House, where Democratic Flagstaff Mayor Coral Evans and independent Coconino County Supervisor Art Babbott are challenging sitting Rep. Walt Blackman, R-Snowflake, and former Rep. Brenda Barton. 

Southern Arizona 

In 2012, two Tucson-area legislative districts appeared to be the most competitive in the state. Democrats led in voter registration by 3.9 percentage points in Legislative District 9, which elected one Republican to the House, and by 3.4 percentage points in Legislative District 10.

LD 9 flipped permanently blue in 2014, when Rep. Randy Friese defeated incumbent Ethan Orr. Now, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14 percentage points, and the last Republican to challenge Friese and Rep. Pamela Powers Hannley lost by about 12,000 votes. 

LD10 remains closer, and had a single Republican representative, Todd Clodfelter, between 2016 and 2018. Democrats appear unworried about their chances of keeping the district this year.

As Tucson itself grew more blue, the surrounding areas also began to shift. Democrats narrowed registration margins by nearly 4 percentage points in neighboring Legislative District 11, from a 13.2 percentage point Republican edge in 2012 to 9.4 percentage points this year. 

Winning a seat in LD11 from entrenched GOP incumbents Sen. Vince Leach of Saddlebrooke and Rep. Mark Finchem of Oro Valley is a long shot. But Democratic political action committees have begun spending there as part of an aggressive strategy. 

Republicans with few opportunities to pick up seats this cycle are eyeing Legislative District 4, a vast southern Arizona district that contains large areas of Maricopa, Pima and Yuma counties and a single precinct in Pinal County.

Democrats still hold a formidable voter registration edge of exactly 16 percentage points, a figure that fluctuated over the past eight years from a high of 17 percentage points to a low of 15.4 percentage points. 

A Republican strategy for picking up a House seat in LD4 relies on picking off Rep. Gerae Peten, D-Goodyear, who hails from the growing Maricopa County portion of the district where Republicans have proliferated in recent years. A Senate strategy is less clear.

From purple to red: LD8

The only permanent pickup opportunity Republicans had over the past few years came from Legislative District 8 in Pinal County, a one-time Democratic stronghold that has shifted steadily to the right over the past two decades. 

After the 2012 elections, Democratic Sen. Barbara McGuire was the only Democrat representing LD8, though registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6.5 points. By 2016, McGuire was out, and Republicans now lead in voter registration by 3.6 percentage points.

Pinal County Supervisor and former Senate President Pete Rios began predicting that shift nearly two decades ago, when the unincorporated community of San Tan Valley began to develop. About 80,000 people now live in what was an undeveloped desert and agricultural land 20 years ago. 

Rios noticed at the time that most of the people buying homes in San Tan Valley weren’t moving from out of state. Rather, they were conservative Republicans from the East Valley, who jumped at the chance to own a large home for tens of thousands of dollars less than they would pay in Mesa, Gilbert or Chandler.

Simultaneously, the southeast corner of Pinal County saw the development of the Saddlebrooke Ranch retirement community, which drew a large population of Republican retirees from around the country. 

And the old mining towns that had long been Democratic strongholds experienced population loss. As recent high school graduates fled their small towns to go to the Phoenix area or Tucson, and old miners died, the number of Democrats in Pinal County began shrinking.

“We were seeing Republicans grow by leaps and bounds in the valley of Pinal County and Democrats dwindling in the mountain area of Pinal County,” Rios said. “So, it was only a matter of time before Pinal County was going to swing and swing strongly to the Republican side.”

Republicans still play defense in LD8, with Ducey’s PAC and the Republican Legislative Victory Fund spending to help Rep. T.J. Shope of Coolidge and Sen. Frank Pratt of Casa Grande, but Democrats don’t include the district in their list of priorities. 

Pinal County is all but a lost cause for Democrats, said Rios, now running for his final term on the Board of Supervisors. 

 “The bottom line is, it’s only going to get worse for Democrats,” he said. “Republicans are going to keep growing in Pinal County.”

Former lawmaker Amanda Reeve said she thinks she’ll return to the Legislature someday, but the right opportunity just hasn’t come up yet.

And in the meantime, she’s gearing up for another legislative session as an environmental policy adviser with Snell and Wilmer.

Reeve, a Republican, was appointed to fill a House seat in early 2010 after Sam Crump resigned to run for Congress. She subsequently won the seat in the 2010 election. But she lost her bid for re-election in a nail-biter to House Minority Leader Eric Meyer in 2012 after redistricting drew her into a more moderate district.

Reeve said she absolutely will run again, but, “I don’t want to run just for the sake of running. As idealistic as this may sound, I really enjoy working to make a difference. That’s really my passion.”

Right now, her passion centers on environmental issues, from water to air quality. While environmentalism is often characterized as a leftist ideology, Reeve said keeping the Earth habitable shouldn’t be seen as partisan.

What’s the biggest environmental issue that’s facing the state right now?

It’s the water issue. There’s also the air quality issue. Those are two of the biggest right now. We’re doing great on the water front, especially in comparison to our next door neighbors, but we want to continue to do great on the water front. We can’t relax, we can’t give up on what we’re doing. We’ve got to keep charging forward. On the air quality front, we have just been hammered left and right on the air quality front by the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency).

The environmental field is very regulation and government-heavy. How do you balance that with being a conservative? They seem sort of in conflict.

The environment is not a political issue. It’s not a partisan issue. Everyone that I talk to agrees that we want to maintain a healthy environment. We want to have nice, flowing crystal clear waters. … It’s not a partisan issue, but can it be over-regulated? Absolutely. And we are seeing that happening.

What’s it like sitting on the state’s Transfer of Federal Lands Study Committee? What’s that process been like? What kind of things have you been learning?

Everybody agrees that our lands aren’t being managed properly. What I’ve really come to conclude on that is that our focus should be on managing those lands, working together to do that. … Our priorities should be first on properly managing those lands because there’s just so much at stake, especially in the state of Arizona with our water and air quality issues.

Any plans to run for office again? Are you thinking about that at all?

I know that at some point in my future, I will run again. I’ve been offered several opportunities and turned them down. They just weren’t the right opportunities. I don’t want to run just for the sake of running. As idealistic as this may sound, I really enjoy working to make a difference. That’s really my passion. … But when something comes up that’s right, I know for a fact that I will run again.

What was the best moment in the Legislature?

The day that I’ll never forget was the day that I got the appointment. … I just really couldn’t believe what was happening, and I really didn’t know if I was the right person for the job. I was praying I was. … It was such a great day because that was the day that probably changed my life forever in the sense that I realized that there was a lot that I could do, that I kind of always sensed I wanted to do.

Who’s your favorite lawmaker? Either party. You can choose a former lawmaker to be
diplomatic.

I am going to choose a former one, because he’s been my mentor. … The one that was absolutely the best for me was Warde Nichols. He just kept everything very real for me. … He was always humble. He never let his role define who he was, he defined the role. I always thought of him as being a real statesman because he treated everybody really well.

Any predictions for the 2016 legislative session? Short? Long?

It’s so funny because one person I know keeps saying, ‘I heard the session’s going to be short.’ And I’m like, ‘Who are you talking to?’ Everyone I talk to thinks it’s going to be long! But I don’t know, it’s an election year, so you never know. There’s a lot of issues, and this governor has a lot of things he wants to get accomplished. … I do know that education is a huge thing, and he’s not the only one who wants to get that accomplished.

Outside of work, what do you do to have fun?

I love being outdoors. Anything outdoors is a hobby for me.

For every election winner, there is at least one loser — but that doesn’t mean their political life is over.

Some move on, disillusioned with state politics. Others say they’re going to remain active within their respective parties but don’t want to put themselves in the spotlight again. Still others are already gearing up for another run for office. And while most are quick to downplay their ambitions to run again, the rule of thumb is — never say never.

Frank Antenori

After losing an uphill battle for state Senate in a Democratic district, Republican Sen. Frank Antenori of Tucson wants to take some time off and do what comes naturally to him: kill something.

“Well, I’d like to kill an elk,” he said when asked about his plans.

“I’ve been out hunting every weekend since the election and have not been successful. I’m getting a tad bit frustrated because I can’t find those damn four-legged little (creatures) out there and put a bullet in them.”

Besides hunting, Antenori wants to spend more time with his family and go back to work at Raytheon to make up for the money he’s lost while working for a legislator’s $24,000 per year salary. He has also been offered the chance to host a radio talk show about military and public safety, highlighting military heroes and accomplishments.

“It’s a little touchy-feely, but it’s right up my alley,” he said. “I probably couldn’t do a gardening show, that wouldn’t go over too well.”

Despite his low-key plans, he said he has already promised all his political nemeses that he’s not leaving politics.

“Politically, I’ve got things in the works that I don’t want to disclose because I don’t want people to know what I’m up to,” Antenori said. “I’d rather snipe from the bushes… That’s more fun, that’s back in my world. That’s the element that I thrive in.’”

Antenori said he wants to return to the Legislature, and Reps. David Gowan and David Stevens will both hit their term limits in 2016, leaving open seats in southeastern Arizona’s Legislative District 14.

Antenori is already fixing up his house to sell it so he can move into the heavily-Republican district, just a few blocks away.

Joe Ortiz

Republican Joe Ortiz lost a campaign for the Senate in LD8, a Democratic-leaning district in eastern Arizona where Republicans swept the House. Now he’s not sure if he’s going to run again. He said the process took a toll on his family, and he feels disillusioned with the political process in general after the Democrats hit him with more than $154,000 in independent expenditures and hammered at two old arrests for disorderly conduct and assault.

“I’m a little concerned moving forward about how the whole political arena has gotten so negative and so destructive overall, so I don’t know, it will take a lot of soul searching moving forward to see what we’ll do,” he said.

He said he’s going to stay involved in local politics as a precinct committeeman and in his community through his role as a member of the Casa Grande Union High School Board. But he doesn’t know if he wants to put himself out in the public arena anytime soon.

“I’ll stay very in tune with all politics, especially local politics,” he said. “We’ll make sure that we keep (Rep.) Frank Pratt, (Rep.) TJ Shope and (Sen.) Barbara McGuire’s feet to the fire, and make sure they’re fulfilling their campaign commitments.”

Emily Verdugo

Democrat Emily Verdugo lost a race for the House in LD8 and said now that the election is over, she’s going to focus on her family and local politics.

“I’m going to remain active, but I do not have plans to run (for the Legislature) again,” she said. “I have two young children and it proved very difficult to dedicate the time I needed to my campaign and my children — so I’ll have to wait until they’re older.”

She also ruled out a run for the Pinal County Board of Supervisors or another run for the Coolidge City Council.

She’s currently the state Democratic Party Hispanic Caucus chair, and said she plans to spend the next two years in preparation for the 2014 gubernatorial campaign, registering and educating Latino voters. She’s also the education coordinator for the Pinal County Democratic Party, and she’s considering a run for the Pinal County Democratic chair.

Amanda Reeve

After suffering a narrow defeat to a Democrat in Republican-leaning Legislative District 28 covering northern Phoenix and Paradise Valley, Republican Rep. Amanda Reeve said she’s not giving up on the Legislature. She said she’s always been active in politics and it would be hard for her to leave that world. In fact, she’s heading to Egypt and Tunisia as part of an exchange with the American Council of Young Political Leaders to meet with political and educational leaders there in December.

Besides that, she’s working on finishing up her master’s degree from Arizona State University in environmental management technology.

“I’ve got to finish up my master’s degree, darn it,” she said. “I just met with (the university) this morning so we could figure out how to wrap that puppy up.”

But she’s still a precinct committeeman, and she expects her name to be back on the ballot for the Legislature in the near future.

“I’ll be running for office again,” Reeve said. “There’s just so much to do on the environment front that I can’t walk away from it.”

Jonathan Paton

After losing a hard-fought campaign in the 1st Congressional District against Ann Kirkpatrick, Republican Jonathan Paton is changing paths, at least temporarily.

He spent 10 months on the road campaigning in the giant district that stretches from northern to southern Arizona, and now, Paton is focusing on his wedding in May. Besides that, he is taking time off to watch television, work out and start writing two books — one fiction and one non-fiction.

But it’s not all fun and family. He’s also working on a constitutional amendment, though he declined to talk about what exactly it is yet.

“I’m just living the life of a capitalist… Trying to figure what I’m going to do when I grow up,” he said.

Paton said he didn’t have any political office in mind for a 2014 run, but he wasn’t ruling anything out — except returning to the Legislature.

“No, I have no interest,” he said. “I mean, I enjoyed my time, don’t get me wrong, and I learned a lot, but I have no interest in that.”

Martha McSally

Though she didn’t win, U.S. Air Force Col. Martha McSally was the surprise almost-upset on election night, coming within less than one percentage point of overtaking U.S. Rep. Ron Barber in southern Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District.

McSally said she’s not ruling out another run for Congress, or a position within the party, but right now she’s trying to focus on catching up on her sleep and spending time with friends and family over the holidays.

“These are decisions I haven’t made yet,” she said. “I’m open to serving in many different ways. That includes within the community, that includes the possibility of running again, but I’m not a career politician, I’m someone who likes to fix things that are broken and make things that are wrong right and lead, and there are ways to do that not in elected office.”

She’s staying active in Teen Challenge of Arizona, a nonprofit group that works to combat substance abuse in youth and adults, and looking for gainful employment.

McSally said she’s still trying to make a difference in the community, even if she’s not in office. Given her background and education in national security issues and public policy, she thinks she shouldn’t have many problems finding a good job.

“I have my military pension, but to take this adventure, this journey, I’ve had to take some financial risks,” she said. “So I’m not focused on making money, but to continue to support all the things I do and all the charities and things, I am looking to bring in some more income, at some point.”

Democratic Rep. Eric Meyer and Republican Rep. Amanda Reeve are virtually tied in LD28, a Republican-leaning district which covers parts of central Phoenix, all of Paradise Valley, and a slice of Scottsdale.

By encouraging supporters to only cast one vote – for him – Meyer hoped to consolidate his Democratic forces, while remaining the only option for independent or Republican voters who decided to split their two votes between the candidates for both parties.

Republican Rep. Amanda Reeve, who was first appointed to the House in 2010 and elected later that year but drawn into the new district this year, is pulling 22408 votes (29.9 percent), while Meyer, who was first elected to the House in 2008 in a similar Republican-leaning district, has 22302 votes (29.7 percent).

Republican Rep. Kate Brophy McGee, who was first elected in 2011 and previously served for years as a school board president, is leading the pack, with 24,993 votes (33.3 percent) of the early ballots counted so far.

Libertarian Jim Iannuzo, is pulling 5,237 votes (7 percent).

Republicans have a 12.4 percentage point voter registration advantage in LD28.

On a recent Monday morning, Tim O’Malley sat in a Sunnyslope diner sipping coffee and peppering his Republican elected officials with questions about education funding — sounding more like a well-informed heckler than a former longtime member of the Republican Party.

Although he was raised on GOP politics, the 66-year-old switched his party registration to independent in 2010 because the Republican Party in Arizona had become too conservative for him, he said.

Now he faces a dilemma when choosing his two state representatives in the Republican-leaning Legislative District 28, which covers Paradise Valley and parts of Phoenix, from about Scottsdale Road in the east to Interstate 17 in the west, Thomas Road in the south to Union Hills Drive in the north.

Should he vote for the two Republican candidates, Rep. Kate Brophy McGee and Rep. Amanda Reeve of the north-central Phoenix area, even though he doesn’t always agree with them? Or should he split his vote, and give Rep. Eric Meyer of Paradise Valley, the lone Democrat in the race, a chance? The Libertarian candidate in the race isn’t an option for O’Malley.

“I’m hoping what happens in this election is that our Legislature becomes more moderate,” he said. “I would personally like to see the Dems pick up a couple of seats and make it so that (Republicans) have to negotiate to get stuff done.”

But even if every independent in the district split their two votes between the two parties, the boost for Meyer still wouldn’t be enough to overcome the almost 13-point voter registration advantage that Republicans have over the Democrats.

In order to win, Meyer needs to run a strong single-shot campaign.

MEYER’S SINGLE-SHOT STRATEGY

“In our district, I can’t win without doing the single-shot thing,” said Meyer, a physician.

For the past two elections, Meyer has been able to hang on, despite overwhelming numbers against him in his current LD11, because he has run as the lone Democrat for the office where voters get two picks. By telling Democrats to vote for him and not use their second vote, he increases the under-vote of his competitors, and increases his odds to take the second seat.

The single shot technique also means that voters tempted to split their vote between the two parties have only one choice for Democrat, and two for Republicans.

On a recent evening, when the mosquitoes were thick in the Arcadia neighborhood in Phoenix, Meyer rode his neon green bicycle down a residential street, knocking on doors and asking for votes. He knows he needs votes from both parties to win the race, so when he arrives at a Republican household, he humbly asks for their second vote in the race.

He’s careful not to turn off any voter, and his signs and website never mention his party affiliation.

But when he knocked on a Democratic door, he explained the single shot.

“I see you’re a Democrat, I’m also a Democrat,” he said. “I’m running against two incumbent Republicans who have voted for the cuts to education and some of the crazier bills at the Legislature … If you only vote for me, it makes it easier for me to win.”

As he’s leaving a voter wished him good luck.

“Thanks,” he replied. “I’ll need it.”

Even if everything goes according to Meyer’s plan, it will still be a thin margin of victory.

HISTORICALLY MODERATE

The fact that the voters even elected Meyer says a lot about the district. The new LD28 is made mostly of the old Legislative District 11, which he currently represents. LD11 is one of only two districts in Arizona represented by a Democrat and a Republican.

In the state’s other split district, Legislative District 24, Republican Russ Jones won a House seat by running a single shot campaign against a 5.5-point voter registration disadvantage.

The electorate in LD28 includes affluent areas like Paradise Valley, along with a high percentage of college and post-graduate voters and a lot of political insiders who understand public policy, according to political consultant Kyle Moyer. Moyer, who is working for Brophy McGee, has done polling in the area in the past, and said that the district has proved its mainstream conservative nature with a history of electing conservatives like Reps. Deb Gullett and Stephen Tully and Sen. Adam Driggs.

The House in LD11 first split in 2006, when Democrat Mark Desimone won the second House seat with a narrow victory on a single shot campaign.

“District 28 is one of the most affluent, educated and participatory districts in the state,” Moyer said. “Even prior to the incarnation of it being District 28, back when it was District 11, it was the same.

Over the history of the last decade or more the district has supported mainstream conservative candidates.”

It’s a kind of Goldilocks district — not too red, not too blue — and the voters have rebuked candidates seen as too far to the fringe on either side.

REEVE HAS GROUND TO COVER

In a district like this, Reeve acknowledges she runs the risk of being seen as too conservative. She said that the electorate in LD28 is more moderate than her current district, but says she was considered very moderate there, so it’s a good fit.

“In my old district, I was (called) a RINO,” said Reeve, a paralegal.

“So I think I must be doing something right. I am a Republican and I have those ideals, but when I am here at the Legislature, I recognize that I don’t just represent the Republican Party.”

Reeve’s old district was Legislative District 6 — a Republican stronghold in the northwest Phoenix area that has elected conservatives like Sen. Lori Klein, Rep. Pamela Gorman and Rep. Carl Seel in recent years.

Reeve notes that she has bucked her own party on issues like guns in public buildings and guns on campus, and has voted against Republican legislation on environmental issues, such as the state sovereignty HCR2004 and the federal land bill, SB1332, from the 2012 session.

She also points out that all of the bills she sponsored last year had bipartisan support, and they all got signed into law.

Reeve is trailing the two other candidates in fundraising, and has brought in $34,000 as of the pre-primary campaign finance reports, with $22,000 cash left on hand. Brophy McGee has raised more than $43,000, and still has $26,000 on hand. Meyer had raised more than $69,000, through the same reporting period and still had $55,000 in the bank.

Reeve said she’s hoping that an independent expenditure committee steps in to help her, but if not, she has run campaigns on small budgets before. She said she has had a hard time rounding up donations because it is a busy campaign year with a lot of candidates asking voters for checks, and fewer candidates using the Arizona Clean Elections system.

But her biggest hurdle in the race as a whole is geographic, she said.

Only a small portion of her previous district overlaps into the new LD28, so the vast majority of the voters Reeve has been courting and building a relationship with in recent years won’t have the chance to vote for her. While Meyer and Brophy McGee have quasi-incumbency status, Reeve has had to start campaigning from square one, introducing herself to the district’s voters for the first time.

“I think just getting out there and getting people to know me is going to be my biggest challenge,” she said. “It’s a whole new area.”

BROPHY MCGEE APPEARS FAVORED

Brophy McGee was first elected to the district in 2010, and said she’s been working hard to build a relationship with the constituents ever since. She said part of her focus as a lawmaker has been to keep a running conversation with her voters and community leaders in the area, to preemptively address any problems they may have and only use legislation as a last option.

Her strategy appeared to pay off on Election Day. Voters in the district gave her nearly 4,000 more votes than Reeve in the primary election, even though the two were unopposed on the ballot.

Before coming to the Legislature, Brophy McGee was an Arizona School Facilities Board chair and the president of the Washington Elementary School District Board. She said her focus has always been on education — a top issue for the district, which includes parts or all of eight different school districts and dozens of charter and private schools.

“I have over a decade of experience in community involvement,” she said. “So it’s a different type of grassroots activism and involvement.”

She said the voters in the district are a lot like her: fiscally conservative and socially moderate. They’re also an informed and involved group that has no qualms about calling or emailing their lawmakers when they have a problem or dislike a vote.

“A lot of times they pick a fight when they think they have to,” she said. “I’m never bored, that’s for sure.”

And although there are some significant differences between the three incumbents, she said the race has been hard because they all like each other and have worked together in the Legislature to pass some bipartisan solutions to the state’s problems.

“In my mind it’s a shame to lose any one of us,” she said. “None of us are bomb throwers, we all work hard — but one of us has to lose.”

THE LIBERTARIAN FACTOR

The deciding factor in the race could be the fourth candidate, a Libertarian named Jim Iannuzo who got onto the general election ballot through a write-in campaign in the primary election.

Iannuzo had originally filed to run for the Senate seat, but the Republican Party challenged his nominating petitions because he had signatures from independent voters. The courts eventually sided with the Republicans and Iannuzo decided to run for the House instead.

“I think that, strategically, the Republican Party made a huge mistake by challenging my petitions,” he said.

Iannuzo is the Maricopa County chair for the Libertarian Party, and has run for the Legislature twice before. In 2006, he won more than 2,100 votes and in 2010, he received almost 4,400. He said with that kind of showing again this year — presumably taking votes from mostly conservative Republicans — he could be a spoiler for the GOP candidates.

Though it’s not likely he will take home a victory on Nov. 6, he could pull enough of the vote away from the Republican-leaning base to skew the vote toward Meyer.

“It’s very possible that I pull enough votes from the Republicans, or even the Democrats, that I could easily take out one of the Republican candidates,” he said.

 

KEY VOTES:		MEYER	MCGEE	REEVE
2012
HCR2004	state sovereignty	N	Y	N
2625	insurers; healthcare coverage; religious beliefs	N	Y	Y
2036	abortion; procedures; informed consent; requirements	N	N	Y
2800	public funding; family planning; prohibition	N	Y	Y
2729	state regulation of firearms	N	N	N
2011
1610	state firearm	N	N	Y
1609	retirement systems; plans; plan design	N	Y	Y
1495	Arizona state guard; establishment	N	Y	Y
2443	abortion; sex; race selection; prohibition	N	N	Y
2010
1070*	immigration; law enforcement; safe neighborhoods	NV	–	Y
*Meyer did not vote; Brophy McGee not yet elected

 

Rep. Eric Meyer, an incumbent Democrat seeking re-election to the Arizona House in the squarely Republican Legislative District 28, has continued to outraise both of this Republican opponents by a healthy margin, recent campaign finance reports show.

The race includes three incumbents who will fight for just two seats. They were all drawn into a single district during the most recent redistricting process.

In the reporting period that began August 17 and ended Sept. 17, Meyer raised $9,300, leaving him with nearly $66,000 cash on hand.

During the same period, the Republican incumbents, Kate Brophy McGee and Amanda Reeve, raised only $1,800 and $4,000 respectively. Brophy McGee now has $19,000 cash on hand and Reeve has $26,000 cash on hand.

Meyer, a doctor, hospital administrator and former school board member, attributed his large advantage to his unique profile and to what he described as a tireless fundraising effort.

“There’s a couple things I offer that others don’t. I have a medical background and a business background and an education background, and those are two huge issues with everyone in our district,” Meyer said while on his way to another fundraiser. “I’ve done a lot of fundraising.”

And despite the Republican registration advantage of the district, Meyer said his dissent on the Republican-led budget cuts of recent years, which had a large impact on education and Medicaid funding, garners support from constituents from all parties.

Lawmakers from across the state are gearing up to take on incumbents and members of their own party in the August primaries.

What’s more, some incumbents are expected to square-off in the November general election, as well.

Now that the candidate field is set, here are some of the legislative races to watch:

Worsley v Pearce

To get back to the state Capitol, former Senate President Russell Pearce will have to fend off a challenge from Mesa businessman Bob Worsley in what’s expected to be one of the hottest legislative races this year.

Pearce allies attributed the immigration hawk’s defeat in the November recall election to the fact that Democrats and independents were able to vote alongside Republicans.

That means this year’s primary matchup for the Legislative District 25 Senate seat will help to affirm whether the recall election’s result — in which Pearce lost by 12 points to Sen. Jerry Lewis — was a fluke or Pearce’s influence has waned.

Nelson v Shooter  

Sen. Don Shooter moved to another part of Yuma after he was drawn into a Democratic-leaning district following the redistricting process.

But the residency change also means he’s now in the district where Sen. John Nelson, R-Litchfield Park, lives.

Earlier, Shooter said he and Nelson had reached a deal for him to remain in the Senate while Nelson ran for House. But Nelson coyly said he wasn’t sure there ever was a deal with Shooter.

In any case, the two are squaring off in the new Legislative District 13.

Hobbs v Cheuvront

The intraparty contests aren’t confined to the GOP.

Rep. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat from Phoenix, is running for the Senate in the new Legislative District 24.

But former Sen. Ken Cheuvront is also seeking the seat. So is another lesser-known Democrat, Tony Flores.

The Phoenix district leans heavily Democratic, which means the primary contest will likely settle the winner ahead of the general election.

Campbell v Alston v Cheuvront-McDermott

House Minority Leader Chad Campbell and Rep. Lela Alston will face a challenge by Cheuvront’s mother, Jean Cheuvront-McDermott. Another Democrat, Tom Nerini, also is seeking one of two seats.

Campbell, Alston, and Hobbs are running as a team in LD24.

Cheuvront said he and his mother are also running as a ticket.

Tobin v Fann v Klein

Sen. Lori Klein, R-Anthem, turned in signatures to run for a House seat in the new Legislative District 1, a mostly rural northern Arizona District.

The freshman lawmaker had earlier said she was unsure of her political future.

Her decision means she’s challenging the No. 1 Republican in the House, Speaker Andy Tobin and his seatmate Rep. Karen Fann.

Fillmore v Crandall

Rep. John Fillmore, R-Apache Junction, was the only incumbent lawmaker who was drawn into new Legislative District 16, which straddles Mesa and Apache Junction.

He promptly opened a campaign committee to run for the open Senate seat.

But Sen. Rich Crandall, R-Mesa, decided to move into the new district, partly to avoid what was expected to be a bruising contest against Pearce in LD25.

At one point, Crandall suggested that Fillmore should run for the House — a suggestion the Fillmore quickly rebuffed.

General election matchups

The redrawing of Arizona’s political boundaries also means big races are brewing five months ahead of the general election.

What’s ultimately at stake is the partisan split in the state Legislature, where Republicans currently enjoy a supermajority control.

Lewis v Ableser

Already, a Senate contest is unfolding between Sen. Jerry Lewis, R- Mesa, and Rep. Ed Ableser, D-Tempe.

Lewis, who defeated Pearce in last year’s recall election, was drawn into Democratic-leaning Legislative District 26, which straddles Tempe and Mesa.

Lewis admits he’s got a tough challenge ahead, but he believes his background will help him secure a victory.

Ableser said Democrats’ 7-point voter-registration edge clearly favors him against Lewis.

Libertarian Damian Trabel is also running for the seat.

Antenori v Bradley

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Whip Frank Antenori, R-Tucson, finally decided to drop his congressional aspirations and settle for re-election to the state Senate.

Antenori had eyed Arizona’s newly drawn 2nd Congressional District.

Instead, he filed for Legislative District 10. In doing so, he will be running in a Democratic-leaning district against former lawmaker and Tucson Democrat David Bradley.

Chabin v Crandell

Rep. Tom Chabin, D-Flagstaff, and Rep. Chester Crandell, R-Heber, are running for the Senate in Legislative District 6, an expansive district that strings together Flagstaff, Sedona, Heber and Snowflake.

Reeve v Brophy McGee v Meyer

In metro Phoenix, three incumbent lawmakers find themselves in a race for two House spots in Legislative District 28.

Reps. Amanda Reeve and Kate Brophy McGee, both Republicans, are squaring off against Rep. Eric Meyer, a Democrat.

Yee v Quelland

In Legislative District 20, voters will see a bit of a reprise of the 2010 race, when former House member Doug Quelland ran against Rep. Kimberly Yee and Rep. Jim Weiers for the House.

Yee and Weiers won that primary contest and the general election.

This year, Quelland is running as an independent against Yee and Democrat Michael Powell.

See the full list of Legislative candidates here.

Name: Amanda Reeve

Chamber: House of Representatives

Party: Republican

Profession: Paralegal and master’s student in environmental technology management.

Hometown: Anthem

Legislative District: No. 6, which includes Moon Valley, Anthem and New River.

Committee Assignments: Environment (chair); Higher Education Innovation and Reform; Energy and Natural Resources.

Previous or Current Elected Offices: Precinct committee member for the District 6 Republican Committee; state committee member for the Arizona Republican Party; chair of the Arizona Young Republicans, North Valley Chapter.

Highlights of Community Involvement: Paradise Valley Village Planning Committee; Sunnyslope Village Alliance; New River Desert Hills Community Association.

Why She Ran: “I wanted to make some changes to what was happening out there, and I wanted to be a part of those changes.”

Her Focus: “It’s really hard to drive around and see some places that once were thriving to now be empty strip malls … So many of my constituents, when I was walking around the neighborhoods during campaign time … so many of them said, ‘So can we focus on jobs now? We really need to deal with the jobs.’”

A Bill: HB 2167, which would ban the use and sale of synthetic chemicals that mimic the effects of marijuana.

Reporting by Ashley Slaney, Cronkite News Service

Click here to see a list of all the freshmen lawmakers in the 50th Legislature.

HOUSE

District 1:
Andy Tobin (R)
Karen Fann (R)

District 2:
Albert Hale (D)
Tom Chabin (D)

District 3:
Nancy McLain (R)
Doris Goodale (R)

District 4:
Judy Burges (R)
Jack Harper (R)

District 5:
Brenda Barton (R)
Chester Crandell (R)

District 6:
Amanda Reeve (R)
Carl Seel (R)

District 7:
Heather Carter (R)
David Smith (R)

District 8:
John Kavanagh (R)
Michelle Ugenti (R)

District 9:
Debbie Lesko (R)
Rick Gray (R)

District 10:
Kimberly Yee (R)
Jim Weiers (R)

District 11:
Kate Brophy McGee (R)
Eric Meyer (D) (too close to call)

District 12:
Steve Montenegro (R)
Jerry Weiers (R)

District 13:
Anna Tovar (D)
Richard Miranda (D)

District 14:
Debbie McCune Davis (D)
Chad Campbell (D)

District 15:
Katie Hobbs (D)
Lela Alston (D)

District 16:
Catherine Miranda (D)
Ruben Gallego (D)

District 17:
Ben Arredondo (D)
Ed Ableser (D)

District 18:
Cecil Ash (R)
Steve Court (R)

District 19:
Kirk Adams (R)
Justin Olson (R)

District 20:
Jeff Dial (R)
Bob Robson (R)

District 21:
Tom Forese (R)
J.D. Mesnard (R)

District 22:
Eddie Farnsworth (R)
Steve Urie (R)

District 23:
John Fillmore (R)
Frank Pratt (R)

District 24:
Russ Jones (R)
Lynne Pancrazi (D)

District 25:
Peggy Judd (R)
David Stevens (R)

District 26:
Terri Proud (R)
Vic Williams (R)

District 27:
Sally Ann Gonzales (D)
Macario Saldate (D)

District 28:
Steve Farley (D)
Bruce Wheeler (D)

District 29:
Daniel Patterson (D)
Matt Heinz (D)

District 30:
David Gowan (R)
Ted Vogt (R)

SENATE

District 1:
Steve Pierce (R)

District 2:
Jack C. Jackson, Jr. (D)

District 3:
Ron Gould (R)

District 4:
Scott Bundgaard (R)

District 5:
Sylvia Tenney Allen (R)

District 6:
Lori Klein (R)

District 7:
Nancy Barto (R)

District 8:
Michele Reagan (R)

District 9:
Rick Murphy (R)

District 10:
Linda Gray (R)

District 11:
Adam Driggs (R)

District 12:
John Nelson (R)

District 13:
Steve Gallardo (D)

District 14:
Robert Meza (D)

District 15:
Kyrsten Sinema (D)

District 16:
Leah Landrum (D)

District 17:
David Schapira (D)

District 18:
Russell Pearce (R)

District 19:
Rich Crandall (R)

District 20:
John McComish (R)

District 21:
Steve Yarbrough (R)

District 22:
Andy Biggs (R)

District 23:
Steve Smith (R)

District 24:
Don Shooter (R)

District 25:
Gail Griffin (R)

District 26:
Al Melvin (R)

District 27:
Olivia Cajero Bedford (D)

District 28:
Paula Aboud (D)

District 29:
Linda Lopez (D)

District 30:
Frank Antenori (R)

Rep. Carl Seel secured a Republican nomination and avoided a recount in the tightly contested Legislative District 6 House race.

Only 37 votes separated Seel and his GOP running-mate David Fitzgerald III. That was enough to avoid a recount, as the trigger for one would have been 14 votes, according to the Secretary of State.

“Oh my God, what a rollercoaster,” Seel said.

All ballots were counted as of Aug. 31 and a canvass is scheduled for Sept. 7, according to the Secretary of State.

Amanda Reeve got the most votes in the GOP race, leading Seel by 298 votes.

Seel and Fitzgerald ran as a team with Senate candidate Lori Klein, who also won the nomination.

“It’s a pretty humbling experience to come this far,” Fitzgerald said. “No one likes it to end this way.”

Seel said he was limited in his spending after the U.S. Supreme Court prohibited matching funds for Clean Elections candidates.

Reeve ran a privately funded campaign and outspent him by double and received some independent expenditures.
“I was over a barrel politically,” Seel said.

The GOP winners will face Democrat Teri Conrad in the Nov. 2 general election. Conrad was thumped by Seel and Sam Crump in the 2008 election.

Republicans hold an overwhelming number of registered voters in the district, which is in Phoenix, north of Thunderbird Road and mostly between 51st Avenue and 16th Street.

Arizona’s newest state legislator said she sees beauty in the Socratic Method, by which opposing views on an issue submit to questions and debate ideas.

Rep. Amanda Reeve, a Phoenix Republican, said she doesn’t subscribe to the my-way-or-the-highway style of politics. Debates are healthy, she said, but drawing lines in the sand based purely on rhetoric doesn’t help solve problems.

“I believe that you need to stand up for your constituents’ beliefs, and your own,” she said. “But just because you do that doesn’t mean you can’t work toward a solution.”

That’s easy to say, but Reeve will definitely have a chance to prove that. She was appointed Feb. 18 to replace Sam Crump, who resigned his seat in the state House of Representatives to run for Congress, and she’ll spend the next four months – at least – voting on everything from bills to lift restrictions on firearms to measures that would disband the Clean Elections Commission. She’ll also have to cast her vote on budget measures that include something for everyone to dislike.

People who have worked with Reeve said she is conservative, but not an ideologue.

Horst Kraus, a Republican activist and Reeve backer in Legislative District 6, said Reeve hasn’t gotten involved in the intra-party fights that have taken place in the Republican Party in recent years. He said she was “smart enough to stay out of those little cockfights” – and is willing to listen to ideas to solve problems.

“I’m sure that she will understand that a compromise will be needed to represent all of her constituents,” Kraus said.

Others see her ability to stand up to Republican ideologues in the Legislature as one of the biggest tests that awaits her.

“I think her challenge is going to be the willingness to make the tough call (on voting), even if it means going against the ideologues,” said Doug Clark, a former Republican legislator in the district who was hoping to replace Crump.

Reeve, 33, got her entrée into politics as a student at California State University in Sacramento. After moving to Arizona, she got involved in district-level politics in 2003 when party officials appointed her to be a precinct committeeman.

From there, Reeve said she got involved in the North Valley Young Republicans, where she served as vice president. That work led to helping Teenage Arizona Republican clubs volunteer on campaigns and register voters.

In 2004, she was Arizona’s e-campaign deputy director for the Bush-Cheney campaign and was elected as a precinct committeewoman. She has since been elected by Republicans in her district to be a state committeewoman.

“I’ve always been involved in politics in one form or another,” she said.

Reeve currently works as a paralegal and is finishing up her master’s degree in environmental technology management at Arizona State University. She said she intends to run for election to the Legislature later this year.